Sunday, July 02, 2017
The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.
Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Janet Yellen Just Said The Most Ridiculous Thing We’ve Heard All Year! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jeff_Berwick
Of all people, the last person you should ever ask about what is going to happen in the economy is a central banker or a Keynesian economist.
They are, after all, communists trying to centrally plan the economy. Commies are always clueless about economics.
And, their track record of predicting the economic future is almost perfect in that they almost always say “this time things are different” just moments before another crash happens.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Cycle Status/Outlook: Long term I believe the USD found a 15 Year Super Cycle top in early 2015. To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Gold Price Trend Line Broken / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Savage
Gold has closed below its intermediate uptrend line. This is the first confirmation that a larger intermediate degree decline has begun.
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Saturday, July 01, 2017
US Stock Market Correction Appears to be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started this volatile week at SPX 2438. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2450 before reversing into a 2419 low of Tuesday. Wednesday provided another gap up opening as the SPX hit 2443. After retesting that high early Thursday the market sold off to SPX 2406 before reversing into the close. Friday had another gap up opening as the market rallied to SPX 2433, before declining to 2423 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.35%. Economic reports were slightly positive. On the downtick: durable goods, Case-Shiller, pending home sales, the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: consumer confidence/sentiment, Q1 GDP, personal income/spending, the CPI and the Chicago PMI. Next week, shortened by the 4th July holiday, we’ll get reports on Payrolls, the ISMs, and the FOMC minutes. Best to your weekend!
Saturday, July 01, 2017
Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_Noonan
One thing certain of all politicians, no matter where in the world, they all lie. The US federal government, that captive political body beholding to Wall Street interests, also a subsidiary of the international bankers that controls the West and all fiat-issued currency, is one of the worst when it comes to lies and deceit, primarily because Europe can only play a poor second fiddle to federal US dictates. South America can offer no resistance, nor can South Africa.
China is beginning to flex its overblown might, and Russia, while in opposition, remains under attack by the West, led by the Neocons [Nazi-types] from the US Deep State trouble makers. The only thing the federal US government does is start wars, and if there is a war going on anywhere around the globe, the US is either directly or indirectly responsible. Wars feed the [fading but still formidable] military might as a means of keeping the fiat Ponzi scheme, aka the “dollar,” alive as the [diminishing] world reserve fiat currency.
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Saturday, July 01, 2017
Gold is Weak in Real Terms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Intermarket analysis is a rather new field in technical analysis but one of my favorites because it is critical in understanding Gold. Asset classes like stocks and bonds are enormous and aren’t as influenced by as many factors as Gold. Trends in stocks, interest rates, commodities and currencies impact Gold in one way or another. We have written many articles over the years analyzing Gold with respect to its outlook and standing in real terms. Gold, when in a true bull market outperforms against all currencies and the global equity market. Unfortunately that is not the case at present. In real terms, Gold is weak, getting weaker and it could be a reflection of the metal’s worsening fundamentals.
Saturday, July 01, 2017
Sovereign Debt Jubilee, Japanese-Style. The US National Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017
By: Ellen_Brown
Japan has found a way to write off nearly half its national debt without creating inflation. We could do that too.
Let’s face it. There is no way the US government is ever going to pay back a $20 trillion federal debt. The taxpayers will just continue to pay interest on it, year after year.
A lot of interest.
If the Federal Reserve raises the fed funds rate to 3.5% and sells its federal securities into the market, as it is proposing to do, by 2026 the projected tab will be $830 billion annually. That’s nearly $1 trillion owed by the taxpayers every year, just for interest.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets have enjoyed an extraordinary surge this year, shattering all kinds of records. It’s been fueled by hopes for big tax cuts soon from Trump’s Republican government. But such relentless rallying has catapulted complacency, euphoria, and valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s beloved and lofty stock markets hyper-risky, with mounting potential for serious selloffs erupting.
History extensively proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever. Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses and give up their ghosts. Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse. Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes. All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Has Gold Production Peaked? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We often hear about ‘peak gold’, i.e. the maximum level of the global production of the yellow metal. According to some analysts, the gold supply already peaked in 2016 or it is likely to peak very soon, offering hope for gold bulls. We do not agree with them. The notion of gold peak is flawed and should not be a basis for investing in gold.
And here is why. It’s extremely difficult – or even impossible – to determine the peak in gold production, as the level of mining depends on many factors, including future discovery of new deposits and technological breakthroughs. Look at the chart below.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Grant Williams Warns Get Out of Stocks Before Boomers Are Forced to Sell Them / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Last year, the first baby boomers turned 70 and that spells trouble for investors.
Speaking at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference, Grant Williams, Co-Founder of RealVision TV, warned investors about the wave of forced selling by millions of retirees and the impact it will have on their portfolios.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Half Of S&P 500 Earnings Growth Can Be Attributed To One Sector, Which Can’t Keep It Up / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : US stocks hit new all-time highs this month. Despite rich valuations, buyers think they’ll still go higher.
One reason for this exuberance is the rise of passively indexed ETFs.
Rather than go to the trouble of picking individual stocks, people dump their cash into index ETFs. The ETF sponsor then buys every stock in the index—even the ugly ones.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
The Fed Has No Control Over Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Ben Bernanke uttered the word taper in 2013, signaling that quantitative easing’s days were numbered. No one knew how the Fed would escape from years of QE and near-zero rates. But to her credit, Yellen accepted the challenge in late 2013.
She tapered the Fed’s bond buying down to zero (except for reinvestment of dividends and maturity rollovers) and began the rate-hike cycle. But that hasn’t normalized interest rates.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
The Real Indian Currency Crisis (Things You Don’t Hear In The News) / Currencies / India
By: HAA
Jayant Bhandari writes: On November 8, 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped a bombshell. In a televised address at 8:00 pm, he declared that after midnight—four hours later—banknotes with face values of INR500 (US$7.50) and INR1,000 (US$15) would no longer be legal tender.
These bills comprised 86% of the monetary value of currency in circulation, so to say that panic ensued would be an understatement. The market stayed open all night as people rushed to buy gold, Rolex watches, and anything else they could get their hands on to use up their cash.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
The Matter with Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
Bitcoin’s valuation surged in the first five months of this year. And in the sixth, it plateaued. What does this tell us – about Bitcoin itself and about the actual state of financial markets?The facts alone are of almost no importance. Some investments thrive, others don’t and some are stable. That is trivial. And for Bitcoin’s surge, there are plenty of reasons. After all, it is a deflationary “system” (leaving it open, if it is a currency and whatnot). This means, the total number of units supplied is limited. Furthermore, demand widens and even government offices, for example in Japan or Switzerland, started to accept Bitcoins as public tender. Tight supply and more demand results in higher prices.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?
Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Stock Market VIX Spike Prediction Revisited / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearly 2 weeks ago, we issued a research/analysis report indicating our analysts had seen a VIX pattern that forecasted a VIX spike on June 29th of this month to coincide with a potential explosive move in the markets. Today (June 29th) the vix spiked over 45% exactly as we has predicted, so we thought we would revisit this analysis and update our valued followers.
Recently, as many of you already know by being ATP members, the US and global markets have rotated on a number of news items and concerns. First, the IMF revised US economic expectations to address slower than expected economic activity. Next, NASDAQ technology stocks have recently been very volatile in relative terms and have driven some very big moves. Additionally, just last weekend two banks in Italy have been closed as a result of failed ability to raise capital levels to support activities/risk. Lastly, the BITCOIN drama seems to be continuing with this recent ransom-ware outbreak originating from within Ukraine. All this uncertainty and risk is a bit concerning for the markets in terms of volatility.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Blinded by the Money Illusion - chronology of panics, manias, crashes and collapses / Currencies / Financial Crash
By: Michael_J_Kosares
"Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be." – Fed chair Janet Yellen
With those words, Janet Yellen put investors around the world on notice, though probably not in the way she intended. In the past, such smug assurances have been enough to send contrarian villagers heading for the safety of the near-by woods. The informed student of financial history knows that panics, manias, crashes and collapses are as common to investment markets as thunderstorms are to placid summer afternoons. To think that suddenly we have banished their recurrence for "our lifetimes" smacks of the kind of misguided hubris that contributed directly to the 2008 meltdown and subsequent untold financial hardship. Just about the time most everyone came to the conclusion nothing could go wrong, everything went wrong. . . and in a hurry.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Soft Fake BrExit as Theresa May Destroys Britain's Strong EU Negotiating Stance / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So everyone got the 2017 UK general election outcome WRONG. Which included my UK house prices based analysis that was the most accurate predictor of the 2015 general election, however this time based on April house price data implied a Conservative win on 342 seats. So despite being the most accurate of all of the forecasts out there, nevertheless did get the election outcome wrong i.e. unlike for Trump there was no betting markets profits bonanza for this election.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Three Main Lies About Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Adam_ODell
Volatility gets a bad rap.The media typically portrays it as the financial world’s evil villain personified, saying things like…
“Volatility reared its ugly head on Monday.”
Or…
“Volatility is striking fear into the heart of the masses.”
You can almost picture the CGI monster Hollywood would create – the “Volatility Viper” – with its ten snake heads and blood-dripping fangs, snapping at Wall Street suits as they run for their lives.
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