Friday, July 17, 2015

Beware of Stocks vs Crude Oil Price / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

How high can stocks go following the dissipation of Grexit, reiterated ECB calls to stick with its asset purchases and the stabilisation in Chinese stocks? Can equity bulls ignore the relationship between oil and stocks?

The 22% decline in oil from the May high raises the old question from early Q1: Will cutbacks from oil companies weigh on overall spending? Remember how in January, economists raised the red flag over oil prices' tumble below $50s, owing to the implications of severe cuts in capital expenditure by big oil/gas companies could, falling by as 20%, as low revenues no longer justify project finance.

Friday, July 17, 2015

GOLD and SP500 Intraday - Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Gregor_Horvat

S&P futures did not go far in the last 24 hours, so our view did not change; looking for a reversal down into a three wave retracement for wave B) soon. Notice that we can count five waves up from 2037 while current price is already outside of upward channel so momentum is decreasing, signaling for a turn.

Friday, July 17, 2015

Retail Silver Premiums - The Candle Blowing in the Wind / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Despite the continued technical, paper induced bias to the downside, recent news that the US Mint has stopped silver eagle production is once again is being singled as the likely cause for the premium surges now being observed across all physical silver retail products.

Is this true physical demand bleeding through the paper charade?

Friday, July 17, 2015

Greek Vote: The Three Energy Aftershocks You Need to Know Now / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: In the small hours of the morning, Athens time, the Greek parliament passed a tough set of reforms as the price for another European bailout. The aftershocks of this will be felt throughout the energy sector.

However, even this tough pill is not likely to be enough. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on Monday that Greece may not pull through without an absolute reduction in the debt owed. Germany has already bristled over the prospect of a creditor “haircut” and the prospects of another round of negotiations has everybody fit to be tied on both sides of the conversation.

Friday, July 17, 2015

8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

This article was adapted from Robert Prechter's June 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist. For more charts and detailed commentary, analysis and forecasts from Prechter's latest issues, click here for the extended subscriber version of this report -- it's free.

It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble.

Friday, July 17, 2015

Bonds and Currencies Brace for BoE and Fed Interest Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Gary_Dorsch

It's approaching that time of year when traders and central bankers alike depart for long holidays. But this summer is shaping up to be anything but quiet for markets, with betting on a "Greek Exit" from the Euro roiling markets, and Red-chip stocks in China nose diving and requiring unprecedented "Plunge Protection Team" intervention in order to halt the onslaught. After a few weeks of turmoil, the Greek debt crisis has been kicked down the road for another few years, with another EU bailout, and after the Shanghai red-chip index, staged a +10% rebound from its panic bottom lows hit on July 7th, traders now regard these sideshows as "fixed" and under the control of their central planners. With these worries can be put on the back burner for now, it's back to business as usual, - that is to say, back to investing in heavily manipulated markets, in which extreme emergency policies, such as NIRP, ZIRP, and QE have distorted the pricing of virtually all assets, and where your local central bank has your back.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Stock Market Fed Follies and Assorted Shenanigans / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jesse

Stocks managed to hold their own today in honor of Janet Yellen's testimony before the House. And it was painful to watch.

The Greek situation continues to remain highly unstable, but the rinse cycle is not quite due yet. but the markets are ignoring these things because of 'technical conditions.'

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Gold and Hit Again - Pervasive Nonsense / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

Gold and silver we hit again today, but silver managed to hang on to its 15 handle, and gold bounced back to 1050.

I suspect that this was the usual sort of antics we see whenever some Fed head appears before the Congress for some 'confidence building.'

Gold and silver are now both short term oversold, and at some key support areas.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Biggest Trade Ever! (No Exaggeration) / Stock-Markets / Demographics

By: Casey_Research

I won’t keep you in suspense. The biggest trade ever is in demographics. In particular, our rapidly increasing life expectancy.

Quick story. My Coast Guard friends are retiring now. You get to retire after 20 years of service, but some of them have been taking advantage of early retirement and are leaving the service as young as age 40.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Stock Market Volatility Likely to Slow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Richard_Cox

When we look at the historical trends of the market, some interesting trends start to emerge.  It can be said that historical averages are not always applicable to what is likely to happen in any given market situation but the fundamentals and technicals are currently aligning in ways that suggests the historical trends in stocks are likely to continue for the next few months.  For stocks, this ultimately means a period of prolonged sideways trading that is likely to persist either until the summer months have finished or until the Federal Reserve actually makes it clear that interest rates will be rising according to a specific timetable.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Credit Deflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

There is a common view in financial markets that credit deflation is bad for gold prices, because gold nowadays is regarded as an asset to be sold in the scramble for cash when people are forced to pay down their debts. When asked by Congressman Ron Paul his opinion on gold four years ago, Ben Bernanke replied it was not money, just another asset, appearing to confirm this view.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

We Have Tsipras and Merkel to Thank for This Market-Crushing Investor Profit Play / Companies / Investing 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes: Greek banks were hanging onto a cliff's edge by their fingernails when Greek and European parliaments and finance ministers debated the future of Greece within Europe.

But less than a week after the referendum that said "όχι!" (No!) to more austerity, Prime Minister Tsipras had already betrayed that vote, proposing considerable cuts in exchange for yet another lifeline. And yet, the euro hardly budged more than a couple of percentage points, and European stocks are actually positive on the year.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Euro-zone ‘Plan B’ Needed As Euro One Recession Away From Implosion – David McWilliams / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

- Euro is one recession away from implosion – David McWilliams
- Mismanagement of euro “both laughable and terrifying”
- “When economic negotiations stop making economic sense, you should begin to question the motives of the EU”
- Germany is out of control
- Successful British exit will be model for other countries
- Euro membership is now conditional
- “Countries that don’t play ball with Germany will see their banking system used against their democratically elected politicians”
- Investors and savers need “PLAN B”

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Greece Debt Deal - New All-time Highs Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, July 16, 2015

In Mexico, Crime Is Bigger Than a Crime Boss / Politics / Mexico

By: STRATFOR

The July 11 escape of the notorious Sinaloa crime boss, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, from a maximum-security prison in Mexico has drawn considerable Mexican and international media attention. While the brazen and elaborate nature of the escape will add to the lore already surrounding Guzman, the escape itself carries little significance for organized crime in Mexico — though it will place a momentary strain on coordination between U.S. and Mexican law enforcement. The forces that drive the evolution of organized crime and their impact on society in Mexico are simply greater than any single crime boss.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

US Dollar, Commodities and the Great Deflation Round 2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this report I would like to show you some charts that could be telling us that the second shoe maybe getting close to dropping in the on going deflation scenario that really started to take hold last year at this time. If you recall the US dollar broke out of a massive base and with most commodities following lower. Commodities have been consolidating for most of 2015 chopping out some decent sideways trading ranges. In order to really get this second leg going to the downside, for commodities, the US dollar is the key component that needs to breakout topside.

The first chart tonight will be of the US dollar which topped out in March of this year creating a double top reversal pattern. After nearly reaching the price objective in May the dollar had a good bounce only to come back down to the previous low around the 93 area in the middle of June which I could make a case for a double bottom. The low on the right side of the potential double botttom has been carving out an inverse H&S bottom with today’s price action touching the possible neckline. Needless to say this is a critically important point right here and now for the US dollar.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

The UK’s Growing Economies / Economics / UK Economy

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Since the Economic Downturn in 2008, economic adjectives have been ubiquitous and we hear and read daily of an ailing or buoyant; expansionary or inflationary; bullish or recessionary economy. Optimistic or pessimistic perspectives on economic matters are often a result of one’s portfolio or even their political leanings and, consequently, many people are influenced by Medias need to define an economy as ‘In or Out of Recession’. Often the accepted formula of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or contraction in a sector fuels their abysmal report. Others such as Chief Economic optimist Joe Grice of The Office of National Statistics (ONS) see no statistical basis to characterise the economy as recessionary. He states, “Overall, in recent years, the economy appears to have been on a bumpy plateau, with an upward trend but at well below historic growth rates.”

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Stock Market Holding Ahead Of Parliament Vote In Greece... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market started the day overbought on the short-term sixty-minute charts. It seemed likely we would sell early in order to unwind those overbought conditions, but that wasn't the case at all. The market didn't blast up as 70 RSI stopped things a bit, but it did move up some. As the day wore on we finally started to see the oscillators unwind some as the market fell a bit. Nothing dramatic, but it fell a little bit off the highs. The reason for the fall was really more than just being overbought. There was some anxiety ahead of the Parliament vote tonight out of Greece. The wrong vote would send Greece out of the Euro zone, out of the Euro, and send the global market reeling lower.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Bubble in Trouble: Record Debt. Unprecedented Optimism. You can be ready Before it bursts... / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: EWI

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Thursday, July 16, 2015

How Socialism Destroyed Puerto Rico, and How Capitalism Can Save It / Politics / Social Issues

By: Peter_Schiff

While Greece is now dominating the debt default stage, the real tragedy is playing out much closer to home, with the downward spiral of Puerto Rico. As in Greece, the Puerto Rican economy has been destroyed by its participation in an unrealistic monetary system that it does not control and the failure of domestic politicians to confront their own insolvency. But the damage done to the Puerto Rican economy by the United States has been far more debilitating than whatever damage the European Union has inflicted on Greece. In fact, the lessons we should be learning in Puerto Rico, most notably how socialistic labor and tax policies can devastate an economy, should serve as a wake up call to those advocating prescribing the same for the mainland.