Friday, March 01, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The crypto bull market is under way! For just $5 bucks you could have accumulated Bitcoin at $27k instead of at the current price of $62k. Still not to late to captialise on the great crypto bull market of 2024! Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
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Friday, March 01, 2024
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield curve now inverted for 21 months so where's the recession? An inverted yield curve is supposed to predict an recession, however as I pointed out months ago for why I was accumulating long-bonds is that the US Treasury NEEDS LOWER long-term interest rates for it's flood of debt issuance during 2024, it does not want to pay 5% interest on this debt that continues to inflate the debt interest spiral. So the Fed will engineer LOWER long term yields whilst maintaining higher short-term rates so as to continue to suppress INFLATION! Which is what has come to pass, long rates are now 1% lower whilst the Fed fund rate remains at 5.25%.
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Friday, March 01, 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The current Fed Funds rate is 5.25% with he market expectations for the cuts to commence March 2023, though the market has been wrong for the whole of 2023 when Fed rate cuts were always seen as starting some 6 months into the future! In reality it does not matter when the Fed cuts rates because the Fed FOLLOWS the market rates not sets them. And the market rates as evidenced by bond yields has been falling for the past few months.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the years that spiked lower below 0 into 2022 before bouncing. during 2023. Of note is the fact that every spike below zero is accompanied by a recession. So where's the recession? Answer it HAPPENED during 2022! It's just that the econofools had talked themselves out of recognising the fact that a recession had taken place.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GDXJ declined once again yesterday, but the situation in silver juniors is even worse!
Silver Juniors in Trouble
Yes, it is possible for a market to be in an even worse position than gold junior mining stocks – that’s the case with silver juniors.
To be precise, the GDXJ aims to be exposed to about 80% gold juniors and 20% of silver juniors, but the SILJ ETF aims to be exposed to just silver miners, with the focus on junior miners.
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is Artificial the right word to use for what is taking place as we enter 2024?
Artificial - made or produced by human beings rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural.
Neural networks are a black box, they are not a copy of something natural i.e. are an emergent property, a different form of intelligence, in the past I've called this Alien Intelligence but that is a bit Sci-fi sounding, maybe a better word that could eventually become widespread should be Synthetic Intelligence since it is a form of intelligence and not artificial i.e. the intelligence is real, but different to human intelligence.
Monday, February 19, 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My focus for much of 2023 was to what degree one would get lucky in ones target stocks during the year, as it can be a case of playing with fire to heavily trim ones holdings, especially the primary and secondary AI tech stocks, all because one thinks one can then rebuy on the next dip. In which respect 2023 proved to be a great year because we got lucky TWICE during the year! Firstly March's correction to S&P 3800, can you imagine that the S&P traded down to 3800 in March! And then again following the July high of 4600 all the way down to 4100! Which even I had started to give up on happening given support at 4200.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 / Politics / Climate Change
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Firstly I'm a climate change denier!
I deny the right of climate change to prevent me from getting richer! Large swathes of planet may become a scorched earth but I will be more than able to afford top end AC units, climate suits and indoor grown crops and meat to ensure it's impact on oneself and ones patrons proves to be limited, 10c for 10x!
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Defining inflation as "rising prices" creates all kinds of confusion.
As I explained in-depth, historically, inflation meant an increase in the amount of money and credit in the economy, or more succinctly, an expansion in the money supply. Rising consumer prices - price inflation - is one symptom of this monetary inflation.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
The first live session for Parallax Trading's 6-week intensive trading course, The Parallax Way Group Trading Course, takes place on Monday, February 26.
To help you decide if the course is right for you, Elliott Wave International's Vadim Pokhlebkin hosted a webinar with Parallax Trading founder Imre Gams in October 2023.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CP LIE Inflation has been moderating, largely due to the base effect as surge in inflation a year ago leaves the annual inflation indices thus giving the illusion of inflation being under control hence the focus of econofools. Whilst there is also real world impact of weak European and Chinese economies, that and the effect of base rate rises feeding through should continue to put downward pressure on CPI until at least release of Feb data in March 2024, after which inflation could tick higher to back over 3% for the rest of the year.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned / Companies / Investing 2024
By: EWI
"Every major peak gets cinematic treatment"
Back in early 2021, the meme stock craze was going strong.
As you'll recall that craze was all over the news and revolved around favorite stocks promoted by largely novice traders via social media. This January 27, 2021 New York Times news item sums up the frenzy surrounding one of those stocks:
'Dumb Money' Is on GameStop, and It's Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game
GameStop shares have soared 1,700 percent as millions of small investors, egged on by social media, employ a classic Wall Street tactic to put the squeeze -- on Wall Street.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Real estate has long been considered the gold standard for investment, anchored by reliable returns and long-term stability. However, the world of real estate investment is constantly evolving, and successful investors must be able to adapt to the changing economic, technological, and environmental landscape to remain profitable. Nick Millican of Greycoat Real Estate has established himself as a recognized and trusted thought leader and advisor in the real estate market, particularly when it comes to large commercial properties and developments in central London.
Nick Millican’s work primarily involves acquiring, developing, and operating commercial properties. His company owns and manages a deeply diversified portfolio of assets, and his investment strategies have evolved significantly over the past several years in response to many multifaceted changes across the global economic, political, financial, and real estate worlds.
Wednesday, February 07, 2024
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Firstly my latest video explaining how I accumulate and distribute (Trim) stock positions to maximise profits
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
After writing publicly for over 13 years, I have come to notice that the landscape has very much changed. There were many through the years that have attempted to take me to task for my differing perspective on the market. Many simply could not understand how I am able to ignore exogenous factors, yet still be able to accurately identify turning points in the market while staying on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time.
When I look around now, many of them are no longer around. Yet, we are still here guiding investors through the turbulence of the various market machinations we have experienced over the last 13 years.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
The term "narrative" is defined as "a story that you write or tell to someone, usually in great detail. A narrative can be a work of poetry or prose, or even song, theater, or dance. Often, a narrative is meant to include the "whole story." A summary will give a few key details, and then the narrative will delve into the details."
This perfectly describes the manner in which financial assets are deified by the MSM and fed on a silver platter to unsuspecting buyers of "all things Wall Street," especially the shares of companies that have no earnings and very few assets but a mountain of narrative content that tells a wonderful little "story" about what might happen if all goes right. Visions of net worth sugar plums dance in millions of heads around the planet every time they hear the cheerleaders on CNBC prattle on about the "strong economy" being driven forward by a "resilient consumer" who have oodles and oodles of "cash on the sidelines" with which to drive stock prices endlessly higher.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clive_Maund
I haven't written much about gold in the recent past — since the failed breakout attempt early in December — simply because I haven't known what to make of it, and that indecisiveness has been reflected in the market itself, where we have seen gold stuck in a fairly narrow trading range, but now things are starting to become a lot clearer both fundamentally and technically, and as we will proceed to see, it's not a pretty picture.
On gold's latest 6-month chart, we can see the trading range that has built out since early December, and it is now becoming clear that the pattern that has formed is a Head-and-Shoulders top that also has the characteristics of a Double or Triple Top or a Symmetrical Triangle and right now it is on the point of backing off from the Right Shoulder peak of the pattern.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stock Market QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 4%! Now it's more like 7%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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