Monday, March 08, 2021
US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Monday, March 08, 2021
BACK TO SCHOOL - UK Coronavirus Lockdown Ending - Summer Holidays & Booming Economy Ahead / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: N_Walayat
UK lockdown is ending! The kids are all back to school starting Monday 8th March, soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.
Yes masks will still need to be worn for some time and mass testing will continue especially wherever variants are detected nevertheless the end is now in sight all courtesy Britains highly successful vaccines programme where the UK literally leads the world, out vaccinating every major developed nation with the United States not far behind.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can the precious metals move lower before a short-term correction, and after correcting, will they continue their medium-term downtrend?
Gold & silver reversed yesterday (Mar. 2) and the GDX rallied after bottoming right in my previous target area, but it’s still unclear if the bottom is in.
Let’s check what’s happening in the charts.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research series, published yesterday, we explored the rising Yields and how my team and I expect markets to react to the new level of fear that may begin to enter the global credit markets. Rising Yields suggest investors believe the future risks to the global economy don’t support lower Yield rates. The talk that investors expect a super-heated global economy may have some truth to it, but we feel the rise in Yields is related more to global credit risks than any type of super-heated global economy.
Today we will explore the potential for a Crazy Ivan event in the global markets. This would be represented as a price revaluation event, causing the global markets to suddenly attempt to revalue price levels based on new levels of fear and more data.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
The Great Reset Is Coming for the Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
As the Great Reset proceeds from globalist think tanks and technology billionaires to allied media elites, governments, schools, and Woke corporations, what will be “reset” next?
Supporters of the World Economic Forum’s all-encompassing Great Reset agenda are eyeing BIG changes for the global monetary system.
Plans that might once have been dismissed as pure speculation or conspiracy theories are now being openly pushed by people who occupy the highest levels of power.
Sunday, March 07, 2021
Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The economy seems to be recovering, while bond yields are increasing again, sending gold prices down.Not good. Gold bulls can be truly upset. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend last week. As the chart below shows, the price of gold has declined from $1,807 on Monday (Feb. 22) to $1,743 on Friday (Feb. 26).
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
The Case for Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently pointed out that overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.
What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.
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Saturday, March 06, 2021
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has fully recovered from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 10 months recovered to trade at a series of new all time highs into 2021, all whilst the virus has continued to rage on, delivering the US and UK WORSE second peaks in terms of infections and deaths.
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Saturday, March 06, 2021
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores / Companies / INTEL
By: HGR
Anandtech has let the cat out of the bag some 3 weeks early! breaking Intel's embargo that's keeping the big tech toobers mouths tightly closed on their 11th Gen CPU's that were supposed to be the answer to AMD's highly successful Zen 3 5000 CPU's.
Unfortunately just as many techies were expecting Intel's 8 core 14+++++ nanometre CPU's are a big fat FAIL, if it were a rocket then it would have exploded on LAUNCH!
Even at stock settings Intel's rocket lake 8 core processors under load RUN VERY HOT At over 80c, which is not surprising given they consume an eye watering 225watts of power for an 8 core processor, even worse are spikes to over 290watts! Compare that against a 5950x with TWICE the cores that consumes 225watts so it's no wonder that Intel dropped the core count from 10th gen 10 cores to 11th gen's 8 cores.
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Saturday, March 06, 2021
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM / Economics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Starting Monday Britains final Coronavirus lockdown will start to come to an end, first with the opening of all of Britains schools and soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
FED Balance Sheet Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite pandemic fatigue and complacency in too many countries, vaccine inequality will penalize poorer economies, which are also likely to prove more vulnerable to new variants.
In the past month or two, too many countries struggling with COVID-19 have been lulled into fatigue and complacency, despite holiday spikes. Since vaccination drives have begun, the assumption is that pandemic challenge is pretty much behind.
Both assumptions are flawed. Vaccine drives in emerging and developing economies will occur significantly later than in advanced economies. And by then, new variants may test vaccine effectiveness.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since shortly after the US November elections, my research team and I have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher. In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021. On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months . We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.
Now that the Treasury Yields have completed what we suggested would be required to start a “revaluation event” in the stock market, we believe that a “Crazy Ivan” event may soon setup in the global markets. Many months back (August 28, 2019), we published an article about precious metals were about to pull a Crazy Ivan price event (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/precious-metals-crazy-ivan-followup/). This prediction came true in 2020 and 2021. Now, we are suggesting the global markets may pull a new type of Crazy Ivan event – a price revaluation event prompted by the rise in Treasury Yields.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After gold came down hard last week, it might be in a for a short pause and corrective upswing. What will the yellow metal’s next chapter bring for the miners? How high can they go if gold rallies from here?As gold recently moved very close to my approximate target of $1,700, the senior miners (GDX) ended Friday’s (Feb. 26) session $0.13 above my initial downside target of $31 . And while an eventual flush to the $23 to $24 range (or lower) remains on the table, a corrective upswing could be next in line.
To explain, if gold can bounce off of the $1,670 to $1,700 range, the GDX ETF will likely follow suit. Thus, while the miners are likely to move drastically lower over the medium-term, a decline of nearly 11% over the last two weeks has given way to short-term oversold conditions.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: N_Walayat
The mainstream press has gone off on a tangent where the story being peddled by the likes of the BBC to explain the lack of uptake of vaccinations amongst Britain's Black and Asian communities being put down to ignorance, gullible brown people who are easily susceptible to fake news stories, whatsapp and twitter messages.
You want to know the real reason why black and asian ethnic minorities are reluctant to get vaccinated?
It's the same reason why if your Black or Asian you very quickly learn to be cautious of the Police, even if you are a victim of a crime, not to be trusted.
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So the US looks set to approve stimulus spending of $1,9 trillion for the US economy during 2021, with economists singing it's praises of how basically you get a free lunch, one of huge deficit spending at zero interest rate and no inflation. Understand $1.9 trillion is 10% of the US Economy! This for an economy that has already recovered from the covid depression and was destined to grow by about 3% in 2021. So what happens when one throws 10% of GDP at an economy that is growing by 3% per annum. No you don't get GDP growth of 13% per annum, yes it will boost US GDP for 2021 but not by 10%, perhaps by another 3%, so where does the other 7% or $1.5 trillion go? Into HIGHER PRICES, INFLATION! Some of which may be reflected in the official inflation indices.
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Submissions
None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.
Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.
That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash / Currencies / Crypto Mining
By: N_Walayat
How get rich crypto mining with your desktop computer or laptop. Here's my step by step guide for first time beginners crypto mining with Nicehash, lets see how easy it is to get started and start making money crypto mining, how many bitcoins can I make with my old 4790k GTX 970 desktop as I await for my 5950x, RTX 3080 to get delivered.
Step1 Download the Nicehash mining software....
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Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK and US continue to recover well from the pandemic with the EU experiencing a slower rate of recovery from the pandemic though from a much lower January peak. Meanwhile the likes of Brazil are doing their own thing and are heading towards new pandemic highs, where it should be noted that the quality of testing is far lower than in the UK, US and Europe so the number of cases are likely many times official figures which thus pose a risk of more variants appearing and spreading over the coming weeks and months.
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