Thursday, October 08, 2020

5 Consequences of US Debt at $50 Trillion / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

With the US set to breach the $50 trillion mark in debt by 2030, here are five things we should start thinking about sooner rather than later.

1. Raising taxes will not solve the problem. Of course, it could help reduce the deficit some, but it would be more of a token. That is just the reality. From the Tax Foundation, here are the real numbers as of 2017.

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Long Term Cycles Suggest Stock Price Reversion Pending & Gold Price About To Explode High / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

• In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
• We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
• The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.

My research team and I have been pouring over the long-term data related to the current global markets and central bank efforts to support the global economy in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic… and we have some keen insights I would like to share with you.  This research article highlights historical chart phases and trends and shows you how important it is to pay attention to cycles and Super-Cycle events as they continue to trend. 

Thursday, October 08, 2020

AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 5000 Launch - Performance, Prices Skews, Cinebench r20 Scores, 5800x, 5900x, 5950x / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

It's less than 2 hours to go before the big reveal at 5pm UK time when we finally get to discover the magic that AMD has worked on it's ZEN 3 5000 series of processors, Yes they will be 5000 series and not 4000 series as I concluded way back in May 2020 because AMD had already released their 4000 series APU's which are based on Zen 2 and not Zen 3 i.e. last Gen so would sow much confusion in the minds of many prospective buyers assuming that for instance a 4700x and 4700G were of the same generation when they are not.

What IPC Increase! My expectations since May have been to expect an increase of between about 15% and 22%, since which there is speculation that single core could achieve a gain of as much as 27% whilst multi-core a gain of about 15%.

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Gold vs. Silver – Absolutely No Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

In the five months between March and August this year, the price of silver increased from a fourteen-year low of $11.77 per ounce to a seven-year high of $29.26. That is a whopping gain of one hundred sixty-three percent.

Meanwhile, gold’s price rose from its low of $1472 per ounce to a recent high of $2061. That represents a gain of forty percent, which is certainly a handsome number. Nevertheless, silver’s performance outshone gold by a ratio of four-to-one.

However, five months doesn’t tell the whole story. For those who were and are, hopeful that this is just the beginning of silver’s day in the sun, be warned. Looking at the bigger picture historically, silver can’t hold a candle to gold.

We referred above to silver’s price outperformance relative to gold for the most recent five months. Here is a chart that shows that same performance within the context of the past five years…

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the "Consensus" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Recent sentiment toward the yellow metal matched peak 2011 levels

You may recall investor optimism that attended gold's then record high of $1921.50 in September 2011.

A Gallup poll from that time period captured the prevailing sentiment. The Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said a monthly publication which provides forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, said:

Perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top is a recent Gallup poll showing Americans now consider gold to be the best long-term investment. Gallup parsed the survey by gender, age, income level and political affiliation and in every single subset, gold won out. ... Everyone is onboard gold's uptrend. It is surely a sign of exhaustion.

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

UK Covid-19 Hospital Admissions and Deaths Since Testing Positive in 28 days Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave

As you will see in the graph that the UK is nowhere near the magnitude of the first wave, and illustrates the extent of the lack of testing during the first wave as currently some 1,500 people are hospitalised compared to 20,000 at the peak.

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

Amazon Prime Day 2020 Sales Top Tips of How To Get Big Savings! / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

Here's what you need to do to get ready for Amazon Prime Sales Days on 13th and 14th October.

Firstly you need to be a Prime Member, don't worry it won't cost you because you can sign up to a 30 day free trial by following this link in

UK - Amazon Prime 30 Day Free Trial

US - Amazon Prime 30 Day Free Trial

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

Want To Win Big In Forex Trading? Leverage Is Your Friend / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Foreign exchange brokers offer traders leverage on their accounts that allows them to enter into larger trades at no additional cost. A $10,000 size account with 50 times leverage implies a trader has access to $500,000 in buying power to do what they wish.

It is best to read and understand a leverage guide to understand the pros and cons of trading with someone else’s capital. But it might be a necessary evil as the forex market is void of gigantic daily moves that are common in the stock market. Ironically, the foreign exchange market is the largest and most liquid market in the world as $4 trillion worth of currencies trade hands on a daily basis.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Why I am Voting for Donald J. Hitler / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Robert_Singer

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out – because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out – because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for me, and I didn’t need to speak out, I voted for Adolph J. Trump

I have been trying to explain the millions of Americans—Republicans Christians, Jews, Blacks, Hispanic and college-educated white voters— who watched Trump stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot freedom, equality and justice in the head, and are still voting for him in November.

They don’t care that he lost more money than any other American, bankrupted his businesses six times, is an adulterer, a liar, and that he grabs women by the p*ssy.

It’s not an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Roe vs Wade, Moving the Embassy to Jerusalem, the Wall, the Economy, Iran or Climate Change, none of them solve the mystery.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Markets Chop & Grind: Gold, Stocks & Commodities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Whether the market is foreign or domestic, equity, commodity or metal the grind is on. Speaking of grind, the one in gold has been expected as the metal builds out its big picture Handle to the bullish Cup with an objective that is much higher. Let’s take a look at a few NFTRH charts to gauge the grind in several markets and by extension, the grind many feel on their nerves these days. It’s not a time to make money. It’s a time to preserve gains and patiently position.

For gold the grind would be the making of a Handle after the Cup’s key higher high to the 2011 high.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Silver Price Great Buy Spot Ahead of Second Big Upleg / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at silver and explains why he believes it's a good time to build positions.

More than a few traders are confused about what is going on with silver here after its recent reaction, but when we look at its long-term chart the situation quickly becomes clear. So we will start this update by looking at silver's 13-year chart in order to get big picture perspective.

On the latest 13-year chart we see that only broke out of its giant 7-year long base pattern as recently as July. The high-volume surge that occurred upon its breaking out was a sign that it was genuine. What has happened in recent weeks is that it has reacted back to test support at the upper boundary of the base pattern, which is normal. In the last update we were too optimistic in thinking it would continue higher, but the good news is not just that the post-breakout reaction is perfectly normal, but that this reaction back to support is a healthy development that is "recharging the batteries" for the next upleg.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Forget RTX 3080 Get Zen 3 Ryzen 5900x / 5950x - GPU vs CPU - PC Bottlenecking / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Whenever we do a video about pc's, we are asked if X will bottleneck Y... well today we are going to show you what REAL bottlenecking looks like and why your focus should be on getting the most powerful CPU you can afford first before you even think about the GPU. Which I know at present is hard to do given the GPU mania currently underway in the run upto and release of Nvidia's RTX 3000 series and their liberal dosing to hundreds of youtubers who have dutifully been busy pumping out effectively adverts for Nvidia that looks set to be replicated on release of AMD's Big Navi!

But thankfully in the middle of the two side shows we have the real release of 2020 which are AMD Zen3 Ryzen processors, the 5000 series which is where prospective PC upgraders should be focused on.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

How to Get Budgies / Parakeets to Eat Vegetables for the First Time / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: Eliza_Walayat

Got a new budgie / parakeet and it's refusing to eat anything other than seeds?

We'll here is probably the easiest veg to get your budgies started on, Lettuce!

Watch our video to see what happens when you feed a budgie lettuce for the first time, after having failed on several other vegetables.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

How to Pick a Reputable Double Glazing Window Company / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Submissions

Today, there are thousands of companies producing double glazing windows and doors. You may therefore find it hard choosing the right company for your needs. You really want to make sure that the company you pick is transparent and reliable.  Here are simple tips to help you choose the best double glazing company.

Monday, October 05, 2020

Trump’s Covid Infection, Bailout Negotiations Raise Market Uncertainties / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are advancing this week as a massive new stimulus bill makes its way through Congress.

On Thursday evening the House of Representatives passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill on a party line vote.

It’s a big deal whenever Congress commits to spending that kind of cash, especially when it’s money that has to be borrowed into existence.  These days, though, it’s not that unusual for Washington to dole out trillions of dollars at a time.

Monday, October 05, 2020

To US $50 Trillion Debt (and Beyond) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

In my 2020 forecast letters, published in January as the pandemic was just gaining attention, I noted this:

"When we do have a recession, which again I point out is likely to be after the election (the only meaningful data point between now and the end of next year), the deficit will explode to over $2 trillion per year and, without meaningful reform, never look back. That puts US debt at $35 trillion+ by the end of 2029."

According to CBO, this deficit -- which I said optimistically, in hindsight, would be over $2 trillion in a recession year -- will be more like $3.3 trillion.

What does this do to the national debt? First, we have to define some terms.

Monday, October 05, 2020

Gold Price Limited Downside, Big Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts recent movements in the gold market and what they may indicate going forward.

In the last Gold Market update we had thought that it might break out upside from the Triangle that was forming, mainly because of its positive Accumulation line coupled with favorable seasonal factors, but instead, after moving sideways for a while, it broke down, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. The good news is that no technical damage was incurred because of this breakdown, as gold is well above important support and well above its rising 200-day moving average. So the fact is that that this drop has actually improved its technical condition by completely unwinding its earlier overbought condition.

Monday, October 05, 2020

Monitoring the SPX Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Submissions

I trade for myself and my members.  The people who use the service know what to expect, but from new members I do get some questions about how often I trade, what kind of monthly returns do I expect, etc.  Normal questions to ask, but they are also the wrong questions as well.  Many of you have been conditioned to think this way- just as some of you may think that indicators are necessary for trading.  Feeling the necessity to trade is not good for your performance, period.  Instead of calling me a professional trader, I could just as easily be called a professional waiter.  I go through what may seem like long periods of time of doing nothing, but then may place more trades in 2 weeks than I did the prior month. My customers benefit from this patience- but they have to get over the idea that something has to always be ‘happening’, or that you need X amount per day/week/month, etc.  The performance will take care of itself if you do things the right way, which leads to the current form of stasis in the SPX.

Monday, October 05, 2020

The Smart Way to Play the Hottest IPO Market in Years / Companies / IPOs

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler

The biggest software IPO is officially in the books. Two weeks ago, in one of the most hyped events of the year, Snowflake (SNOW) went public.

Snowflake is a data warehousing company. It helps companies better access and make sense of their data. We’ve been “stalking” Snowflake for over a year. And yet, we held off from recommending it to our readers.

There’s nothing wrong with Snowflake’s business. In fact, it’s a phenomenal company. Its customers include some of the world’s most cutting-edge companies, including Adobe (ADBE), Square (SQ), DocuSign (DOCU), and Overstock.com (OSTK).

Not only that, Snowflake is one of the world’s fastest-growing businesses. Its sales have surged an incredible 174% over the past year. That’s faster than Zoom Video (ZM) was growing before it went public.

Monday, October 05, 2020

Gold Price Is Doing It Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold is trading really close to its 2011 all-time high. This is obviously a critical level for the future of gold prices.

Historically gold in US dollars often clears significant all-time highs only some time after significant currencies like the Euro and British pound.

This is mainly due to US dollar behaviour during times of significant risk aversion, like we’ve had this year and 2008, for example.