Friday, October 02, 2020
US Dollar Staying Engulfed in Bearish Bias Amid U.S Presidential Debate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index declined yesterday, while the precious metals market moved higher, possibly due to the relatively “turbulent” pre-election debate in the U.S. But still, did anything actually change regarding the outlook?
Not really.
As we have stated in our previous analyses, while gold and the rest of the precious metals market will probably decline significantly in the following weeks, and that a short-term correction would not be surprising at all. The same holds true for the USD Index, except that the direction of any possible moves could be considered the opposite.
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Friday, October 02, 2020
As COVID deaths pass 1m mark, developing countries will suffer / Politics / Pandemic
By: Submissions
Global deaths from Covid have passed the 1 million mark. Covid headlines remain one of the main drivers of global markets as the latter are trying to gauge the possible trajectory of the global economy and the likely policy response. Many countries are contemplating further tightening of Covid-related restrictions, which means that their economies may require more support. With their borrowing costs remaining low, developed economies may continue pursuing lax fiscal policies in years to come. Developing countries may find they have less room for fiscal stimulus, partly because the recent increase in risk aversion has driven up their borrowing costs.
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Friday, October 02, 2020
The Demise of American Democracy / Politics / US Politics
By: Submissions
When the highest representatives of a community are eager to throw mud at each other. When arguments merely serve as a façade to convey anger, mockery or contempt, then history has just turned a corner. One period has come to an end, a new one begins. Since September 29, 2020 we know that in the United States of America democracy is undergoing a process of rapid disintegration – it is being torn apart by diverging forces.
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Friday, October 02, 2020
Trump Tests Positive for CoronaVirus, Is Biden Infected? Pence vs Harris Presidency? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
President Trumps incompetent handling of the chinese coronavirus pandemic has resulted in over 210,000 american deaths, that looks set to reach 250,000 by voting day and who now himself has tested positive for Covdi-19.
Given his antics of lack of social distancing and mask wearing and holding huge enclosed space election rallies the only surprising thing is that he made it this far without getting infected.
Can Trump survive Covid-19? After all it came close to killing Britain's equally moronic 50 year old Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier in the year.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
UK Government Loses Control of the Coronavirus Pandemic 2nd Wave Forecast Consequences / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave in advance of which British Police have been steadily given new powers to accumulate arrest points towards criminalizing people who for instance don't wear masks or are found in groups of 6 or more whilst those who breach self isolation rules could be hit with fines of upto £10,000. Police forces increasingly putting high risk areas and groups of people under surveillance, which translates into ethnic and deprived areas receiving special attention, officers roaming the streets, shops and super markets looking for law breakers with even plans to deploy the army in support of the police towards enforcement of local lockdown's.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
The Prospects of the Rocky S&P 500 Stock Market Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Quite an eventful period since the last Stock Trading Alert on Sep 11 – stocks rose both on Sep 14 and 15, validating the short-term bullish outlook presented in the said Alert. Next, the S&P 500 made two downswings before rebounding from the 3200 level proximity on Sep 24. Friday's session brought us a daily upswing, and so did Monday. Where does yesterday's stumble fit in?
Volatility has been moving generally lower after making a lower high days ago. Technology plunged but didn't make a new low on Thursday. Otherwise, there have been few sectoral bright spots, with financials and energy still looking precarious. On the bright side, consumer discretionaries, utilities and consumer staples (the latter two are defensives) have held up reasonably well – better than healthcare.
But what moved the markets when it comes to headlines? Political uncertainties remain, the first presidential debate is over, and there is still no stimulus bill, while corona is getting worse overseas. New lockdowns are hanging in the air, with the U.K. and Israel leading the way. Then, the Fed hasn't done all that much lately, leaving the credit markets relatively unfazed. Continuing claims are trending lower only painfully slowly, and U.S. tensions with China haven't seen a turnaround.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
Global Stock Markets: Keep Your Eye on This Remarkable "Divergence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Incredibly, the Stoxx 600 is lower today than it was in March 2000
As you probably know, a "divergence" occurs when one financial market behaves differently from a related financial market.
Such occurrences often portend trend changes, albeit, divergences may stretch out for months before a trend change occurs.
Remarkably, one global divergence has been unfolding for more than 20 years!
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
Covid-19 - The Only Thing Systematic Is The Destruction Of America - Part 2 / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
In Part 1 of this article I detailed the purposeful systematic destruction of global economies, with a bad flu as the catalyst, as part of a plan by the Davos elite to reconstruct the world in a manner most beneficial to these evil men and detrimental to you and me. The fight remains to be fought. Orwell’s worst fears are coming to fruition.
The masking of the masses has been, and continues to be, about despotic politicians and arrogant bureaucrats demanding obedience as a mechanism to judge their ability to shame the masses into submission. It has nothing to do with health or protecting others. The health “experts” like Fauci, the Surgeon General and CDC director actually told the truth back in March when they told everyone masks didn’t protect you from viruses. When the powers that be decided this flu needed to be hyped and blown out of all proportion, mask wearing was used as the symbol of fear necessary to panic the public into submission.
Media campaigns, celebrity virtue signaling, corporate coordination, and fake documentation were immediately implemented to corral the sheep and force them to conform. Dehumanizing the population, using a false narrative to shame non-maskers as serial killers, turning neighbors into snitches, and using police thugs to enforce these unconstitutional dictates, has created an atmosphere of anxiety, suspicion and fear as the perfect method of domination. The non-critical thinking sheep are driven by emotion and feelings.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
Fed Isn’t Thinking about Rate Hikes. So Does It Maybe Think about Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed Vice Chair says that the Fed will not even think about hiking interest rates until the inflation reaches 2 percent. Meanwhile, the price of gold decreases further. What is exactly happening in the gold market?Over the last week, several Fed officials spoke publicly with the purpose of convincing investors that their new policy strategy would be positive for the economy. Powell himself testified three times before Congress. However, the most interesting remarks were delivered by Richard Clarida, Fed Vice-Chair.
On Wednesday, he told Bloomberg Television that the FOMC would not even think about hiking the federal funds rate until the inflation reaches 2 percent:
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Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Who is Spreading the Virus? UK Coronavirus 2nd Wave Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave
You only have to venture out to the local super market or shopping mall to see why the virus is starting to accelerate again, for what you tend to see are the rebellious young i.e. 18 to 29 of whom probably less than half were the mask, whilst those aged say 30 to 49 whilst more lively to wear masks, many have them below their noses or worse below their chins. Thus defeating the whole purpose of wearing masks in attempts at slowing the spread of the virus.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020 & 2021 – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This second part of our research post on super-cycles and precious metals will present our expectations going forward for 6 to 24+ months. In Part I of this research post, I linked a number of our previous research articles we recommended to readers to review for context and continuity. If you have not read Part I of this research article, please take a minute to review that first segment before you continue reading this second segment of our research.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
The Only Thing Systematic Is The Destruction Of America / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” – Upton Sinclair
Upton Sinclair was describing willful ignorance based upon who butters your bread. The rampant corruption of our society, as power has been consolidated into fewer and fewer hands, has resulted in our political, financial, cultural and economic systems being captured by a billionaire class who use their wealth to dictate the path we are forced to follow – or lose everything.
The sociopath class include the Silicon Valley social media titans, the billionaires running the six mainstream media companies, the rogue billionaires like Soros and Bloomberg who fund chaos and foment insurrection, the Deep State surveillance agency operatives like Clapper, Brennan, Comey and Mueller doing the bidding of the oligarchy, Wall Street criminals like Dimon, Paulson, and Blankfein doing god’s work, and last but certainly not least – Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and slimy Kashkari priming the pump for the never ending systematic pillaging of the nation’s wealth.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Fractional-Reserve Banking Is The Elephant In The Room / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Kelsey_Williams
The expression “elephant in the room“…
“…an important or enormous topic, question, or controversial issue that is obvious or that everyone knows about but no one mentions or wants to discuss because it makes at least some of them uncomfortable or is personally, socially, or politically embarrassing, controversial, inflammatory, or dangerous. (source)
A wordy definition, yes; but it is applicable to our topic of Fractional-Reserve Banking. After reading the rest of this article, you should be able to see just how important and enormous Fractional-Reserve Banking is; as well as how dangerous.
Lets’s start with some history.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Bears Fumbled, Let's See Whether Bulls Can Score / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Last week was mostly a downtrend week from Monday-Thursday with lower highs and lower lows. The bears needed to close Friday at the lows or near the lows in order to retain momentum heading into this week. But Friday morning, the lower lows opportunity was immediately squashed with a V-shape reversal back into the 3337, and then the rest of the day was spent grinding higher because short-term bears were trapped, so the opposing side was running into the 3268/3285 next key levels.
The main takeaway heading into this week is whether 3330-3350 key resistance region on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) can formulate the next daily lower highs, or whether the temporary bottom from last week is turning into more of a concrete bottom for the bigger picture. This is the neutral ground territory given the key battleground being established with the current backtest into the 3330s trending daily 20EMA resistance alongside 38.2% fib retracement and the prior (SHTF) shit hits the fan level of 3350.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020 & 2021 – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Uncertainty and cycle events will likely lead to continued Gold and Silver price appreciation until the cycle events end (likely in 2024 or 2025).
- The gold/silver ratio chart shows very clear levels of support and resistance. With the next targets $2,000-$2,250, $3,200 then $5,500+.
- Extended basing may continue for the next 2 to 4+ months.
I have received many comments and questions related to our Gold and Precious Metals predictions originating from research posts we have made recently. Today’s research article is Part 1 of a two-part series, which will revisit some of our past forecasts and showcase what my research team and I believe will be the most likely outcome for Gold as we push through the end of 2020 and into early 2021.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress until mid to late-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
How Trump co-opted the religious right and stacked the courts with conservatives / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Richard_Mills
“We’re not giving lifetime appointments to this President, on the way out the door, to change the Supreme Court, for the next 25 or 30 years.”
That was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2016, defending his controversial decision to block President Obama’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland.
The veteran Republican lawmaker enraged Democrats by refusing to hold a Senate confirmation hearing on Garland’s appropriateness for the position. Under the US Constitution, the Senate Judiciary Committee conducts hearings examining the background of the nominee and questioning him/ her about their views on a variety of cases and their judicial philosophy.
Yet when faced with a vacancy on the court after the recent death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, McConnell vowed to replace her in a Senate vote, before the Nov. 3 election. Like in 2016, a Supreme Court judge had died just before the President’s four-year term had ended (actually six weeks prior this year, vs 8 months in 2016).
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Which RTX 3080 GPU to BUY and AVOID! Nvidia, Asus, MSI , Palit, Gigabyte, Zotac, MLCC vs POSCAPS / ConsumerWatch / Computing
By: HGR
Many AIB RTX 3080 Cards are tending to fail when running under load towards 2000mhz resulting in screen artifacts to game players being kicked to their desktops and even outright system crashes.
Igor Labs first identified the probable cause being AIB's use of cheap capacitor arrays to cut costs thus causing an issue in terms of noise in the power delivery system to the GPU's under boost load at above 1900mhz, the higher the boost the greater the risk of issues i.e. greater instability is when cards boost towards and over 2000mhz, well beyond Nvidia's FE nominal boost clock is at 1710mhz FE which in practice can boost to about 1900mhz in some games, though is less's than that which ABI's boost to hence the crashes being experienced.
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Gold, Silver & HUI Stocks Big Pictures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold, silver and the HUI Gold Bugs index are viewed here by their big picture monthly charts. In NFTRH we use mainly daily and weekly charts of these along with individual miners to better gauge the shorter-term pictures, which will advise on the end of the correction better than these more cumbersome monthlies that are great for keeping perspective amid the shorter-term noise.
Our target for gold was 1940, established in April off a daily chart pattern. That target was blown through and as the monthly chart shows, a big picture Cup was formed as it made a higher high right around the time that the Buffett hype signaled the oncoming correction as we noted on August 17th:
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Monday, September 28, 2020
It’s Time to Dump Argentina’s Peso / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In addition to facing an acute COVID-19 crisis, Argentina’s deadbeat economy is collapsing, and, as usual, the inflation noose is around Argentines’ necks. Argentina’s official inflation rate for August 2020 is 40.70 percent per year. And, for once, Argentina’s official rate is fairly close to the rate that I calculate each day using high-frequency data and purchasing-power-parity theory, a methodology that has long proved its worth when compared with official statistics. Today, I measure Argentina’s annual inflation rate at 37 percent, but probably not for long — the noose is generally followed by the trapdoor.
As Milton Friedman put it in his 1987 New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics entry “Quantity Theory of Money” (QTM), “The conclusion (of the QTM) is that substantial changes in prices or nominal income are almost always the result of changes in the nominal supply of money.” The income form of the QTM states that: MV=Py, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the price level, and y is real GDP (national income).
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