Tuesday, May 09, 2023
Stock Market Swings Analysis Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Swings Analysis
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: EWI
This ETF "continues to make lower lows"
It's sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months.
They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. The failure of Washington Mutual in 2008 still ranks first.
And here's an interesting factoid from the New York Post (May 1):
This year's 3 bank failures held $532B in assets -- more than all lenders that collapsed in 2008 crisis
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
What Should Forex Traders Know About the Ross Hook Pattern? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Trading experts note the great rivalry level in the global FX market nowadays. Specialists explain such a situation because of the intensive development of this investment sector. Reuters analysts state that the specified trading branch increased by 14% from 2019 to 2022. Intense rivalry forces investors to seek effective ways to make deals. And skilled traders consider the Ross Hook pattern one of today's most efficient trading strategies.
Specialists claim that the RH tactic only gives great results if you cooperate with trustworthy brokers (for instance, FBS), though. That's because unchecked brokerage sites often freeze and lag. That's especially true for peak hours. In this case, you can't make deals exactly at the right time. As a result, investors sell assets at lower prices or even have losses. And now, let's view the primary features of the RH strategy.
Friday, May 05, 2023
Current State of the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ray Kurzweil was WRONG the SINGULARITY is NOW!
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Friday, May 05, 2023
Your Bank: "Use This as an Early Warning Signal" / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: EWI
First Republic Bank "customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter"
More dramatic news on the banking front.
On April 25, investors in the shares of First Republic Bank were hit hard (The New York Times):
First Republic Bank Enters New Free Fall as Concerns Mount
The bank's shares fell by about 50 percent on Tuesday, a day after it said customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter.
As of this writing on April 26, shares are down another 20% intraday.
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Friday, May 05, 2023
How "Insane Optimism" is at Work in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
"Stock investors are so bullish that they are..."
Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism.
Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or pessimism.
Most recently, optimism has been in charge. The question is: Has an extreme been reached?
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Sunday, April 30, 2023
Silver Doesn’t Care, but You Should / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While calling the top is a process that plays out over time, silver’s momentum has fizzled, and the next major move should be to the downside. To explain, we wrote on Apr. 21:Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 30, 2023
QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street's soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust growth. And the other, and more accurate scenario, where inflation falls because of a recession.You just can't get the ROC of inflation and growth to increase when money supply growth plunges from 27% in 2021 to one that is contracting by 4%, as of the latest March data.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Corporate Bonds: "The Next Shoe to Drop" / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: EWI
"The neckline has been broken over the last few days"
A "calamity" is likely ahead for corporate bonds, says our head of global research, Murray Gunn.
Some of Murray's analysis involves the head and shoulders, a classic technical chart pattern. In case you're unfamiliar with it, here's an illustration along with an explanation from one of our past publications:
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Could the Debt Ceiling Drama Uplift Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While the 2011 analog paints an optimistic portrait for gold, silver and mining stocks, a re-enactment of the last debacle is unlikely to unfold this time around. Back then, gold soared amid the debt ceiling chaos, while the USD Index was a major casualty. And while it’s possible lawmakers could ignite a similar event, most learn from their past mistakes.For example, while bloated stock valuations were the Black Swan in 2000, the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) was a housing market phenomenon, while the 2020 pandemic was a health scare. As a result, different catalysts often cause distress, and when this recession arrives, it will likely be driven by something investors least expect.
So, with the debt ceiling drama highly anticipated, it reduces the odds of the event unfolding in line with investors’ expectations. Therefore, it’s likely more semblance than substance, and the bulk of the PMs’ rallies should be in the rearview.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Gold Price Erased Its April Rally – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
April had started with gold at $1,990, then gold moved as high as $2,063.40, and yesterday, it closed at $1,999. At the moment of writing these words, gold futures (because that’s what you see on the above chart) are trading at $1,993.
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Friday, April 28, 2023
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite the stock market falling as expected many target stocks have stubbornly resisted correcting to any significant degree which is probably due to flight to safety to AI tech stocks, the likes of Nvidia, AVGO, TSMC whilst others appear to have fully embraced the panic and fallen hard such as GPN where I was already over invested to 128% going into the correction but now after the free fall below $100 stand at 150% invested, Further across the board mostly small buys have lifted my exposure to 87.8% invested 12.2% cash accumulating into Google, Amazon, Qualcom, Micron, IBM, JNJ Pfizer, and higher risk stocks - GPN, KLAC, CARA, ULH. amongst others.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Stock Market Trend to New Bull Market High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Trend
The S&P remains in a downtrend i.e. lower highs and lows and thus continues to target a break of 3800 on the short-term basis. In terms of swings the correction could extend to as deep as 3745 though I doubt it will go that low, more likely will bounce around between 3890 and 3780 for a few days.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Are you invested in 4D printing? / Companies / 3d Printing
By: Stephen_McBride
What happened to 3D printing stocks?... This major upgrade breathes new life into 3D printing… “Smart materials” could unlock 4D printing… Plus, an easy way to profit from this megatrend…
- Is 3D printing dead?
A decade ago, “3D printing” was the hottest buzzword on the planet. Investors piled in… and 3D-printing stocks took off like a rocket.
3D Systems (DDD)—a leading 3D-printing company at the time—soared 1,000% between late 2011 and early 2014.
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Never bet Bgainst America unless… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Warren Buffett’s latest move might surprise you… US stocks are passing the torch... Plus, a dead-simple way to invest in this big shift…
- When Warren Buffett makes an unusual move… pay attention.
Buffett is likely the best investor of all time.
His firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) delivered an average annual return of 20% from 1965 to 2022, which turned a $1,000 investment into $38 million.
Buffett is known for buying large stakes in iconic American companies. He’s invested billions of dollars into brands like Apple (AAPL), Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP).
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Three Reasons to Buy Shares in abrdn / Companies / Corporate News
By: Sumeet_Manhas
abrdn, the UK’s largest active asset manager, could be on the cusp of rewarding investors with substantial growth. The FTSE 100 firm’s share price has risen by 40% since October 2022, after a planned return of capital to investors helped reinstate the company’s market capitalisation to approximately $4 billion.
abrdn’s stock offers a 7.5% dividend yield, and many expect the yield to maintain or better this market-beating ratio. As such, the Edinburgh-based company is an attractive prospect to investors for the coming year.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
US Treasury Bond Market Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
That was one hell off a drop in the 2 year yield yesterday, went straight from 5% to 4%. Now US rates are on par with where they were when the S&P was trading at 4200, of course it's not as simple as that, the rate fell in response to the Fed bailout of the banking crime syndicate. Still this should be positive for stocks.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Destabilizing Debt Ensures the Financial Crisis Has Just Begun / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: Michael_Pento
The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in
money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years.
Our beloved U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains
strong and its banking system is resilient. That is, if you close your mind and overlook the recent
bankruptcy of three financial institutions. Keep in mind this is the same person who assured us that we
would never see another financial crisis in our lifetime. So, it is self-serving for her to deflect attention
away from the economic meltdown that is on the horizon.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?) / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: EWI
Was 2022 an aberration for the 60/40 allocation?
Many financial advisors steer clients who are willing to take some risk toward a 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio.
Alas, investors who followed that strategy in 2022 saw the value of their portfolios decrease substantially.
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