Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market? / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold and other commodities plunged below key short-term support levels following Tuesdays US Interest rate cut to 2.25%. The consensus seems to see this as a healthy correction or is this a signal for a potential end of the commodities bull market?
My view for some months has been that the west will move from a period of stagflation (the present) to a period of deflation towards the end of this year. Therefore at some point during this year the commodities bull markets would be expected to recognise this change in fundamentals and peak well before deflation makes itself evident. The major trend expectations are illustrated in the below graph from an earlier article on the current stagflation and future deflation prospects.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Prepared Speech: IQPC Base Metals Investment Summit 2008 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Recently, there was an article in the Financial Times titled: “Plummeting dollar a big headache for pegged currencies.” Between hedge fund margin calls, the Fed's $236 billion plan to boost liquidity, Bear Stearns take-under by JP Morgan, and not least Elliot Spitzer's self-destruction, why focus on this particular back page headline? The reason this article caught our eye is that it focused attention on what we believe is the near-term “end game” within a longer-term era of commodity inflation—in other words, a significant correction of some duration within the context of a long-term secular bull market in commodities. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold Gets Sold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
TTC members were told Thursday morning we could be “hours or days” from a top in gold. The top actually printed two trading days later on Monday, when front month gold futures moved briefly above 1030 and sold off, producing a bearish reversal candle on the daily chart below.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Crude Oil and Commodities Get Clobbered Whilst Equities Barely Changed / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What do you know, the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) is going up, but the major equity market ETFs, like Q's, SPY, DIA, are barely going down! In other words, it is just the energy sector (XLE) and other commodity sectors, that are getting clobbered while the main equity sectors behave very well after a 4% advance. This is what I was thinking on Monday when I managed to buy the high of the DUG-- that the energy and commodity trades (the crowed ones like gold and oil) were about kaput on the upside, which should in theory reverse, sending the DUG above 42.20 into the 45.00-46.00 target zone. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Credit Crisis Hits Gold As Margin Calls Hit Investment Funds / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD and gold futures prices sank as the US open drew near on Wednesday, falling almost 3% to bounce off a seven-session low as oil prices and soft commodities continued to tick lower and European stocks climbed back from an earlier 1.2% drop.In Australia a major real-estate investment fund today faced a A$30 million margin call (US$27.9m), reports the Herald Sun, while the highly-geared Wesfarmers fund denied rumors it could only re-finance an outstanding US$3.7 billion private-equity debt at 4% above prevailing cash rates.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold and Platinum- A Tale of Two Metals / Commodities / Platinum
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times," Charles Dickens famously wrote. That certainly describes markets nowadays, doesn't it?
Heck, Ben Bernanke chopped both the fed funds rate and the discount rate by 75 basis points yesterday — another indication of just how bad things have really gotten.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold Healthy Consolidation Following US Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up $2.20 to $1003 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was down 30 cents to $19.89 per ounce. In illiquid electronic trading after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points, very counter intuitively gold fell in value by nearly 2%. With gold already up by more than 19% so far this year (some 10 weeks), consolidation is healthy and to be expected.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Agricultural Commodities Correction Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Corrections are a friend of investors. Same is true for professional traders. Traders on Main Street enjoy them less. Learn to take advantage of them, rather than be buffeted by them. Investors should be anticipating any possible correction in their favorite industries in order to make timely purchases. Currently, for example, the Agri-Food sector may be developing one of the first good corrections in some time. Cash prices for many Agri-Food commodities have retreated.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Uranium Stocks Bearish Trend With Potential for Bottom Formation / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Another downer of a day for the uranium stocks but looking at the chart it looks more like the start of a reversal activity than a continuation of a bear. Yes, the Index did close lower but the daily action stayed within the confines of yesterday's activity. A real down day would be a close below yesterday's low. Anyway, the Merv's Daily Uranium I ndex closed lower by 0.051 points or 1.67%. There were 20 winners, 25 losers and 5 unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Gold to Sell off to $940 on US Interest Rate Cut Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Big day for gold and the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) because just about everyone believes that the Fed will cut rates 75 to 100 bps, which will crush the dollar and trigger another upleg in gold. My technical work argues differently -- that the GLD has peak and that "good news" will be sold at the top of the Jan-Mar channel, and the GLD will traverse towards the lower portion of the channel, now in the vicinity of 94.00. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Gold Recovers and Stocks Bounce Ahead of US Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher vs. both the Dollar and Euros in London on Tuesday, gaining more than 1.3% from an overnight dip against each currency as global stock markets bounced after Monday's shock losses.By lunchtime in London – where the AM Gold Fix was set nearly $20 below Monday's record of $1,023.50 per ounce – the MSCI World Index stood 0.9% higher to show its first gain since Wednesday last week.
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Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Gold Strong as Safehaven in the Face of Worst Financial Crisis since 1987 Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up $2.10 to $1000.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was down 25 cents to $20.36 per ounce. Gold surged on the open in Asia yesterday and reached a new record high ($1030.80 per ounce). Subsequently, with U.S. stock markets miraculously recovering, gold succumbed to profit taking and ended the day only slightly higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
UltraShort Crude Oil & Gas ETF on the Move / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As of this moment, the Jan-Feb lows at 34.69 and 35.52 represent a potentially major double-bottom in the DUG that has the power to thrust prices towards the 46.00-47.00 resistance (breakout zone). Initial resistance hovers along the declining 200 DMA, now at 43.33. Any weakness from current levels must hold 40.00 to preserve today's near-term upside breakout at 41.20/50.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
Trading Gold and Silver ETF's for Profit / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Peter_Degraaf
ETF's have been part of the investment scene for almost two decades. There are currently over 630 different ETF's. Recently a number of commodity ETF's have been introduced to the trading public, as more and more people are becoming interested in trading this sector, and ETF's are a simple way to participate, without having to search for specific stocks.
Gold, silver, oil, copper, nickel, natural gas, grains and cattle ETF's are all available, and a number of ETF's cover a mixture of similar commodities.
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Monday, March 17, 2008
Gold Jumps 3% as Panic Selling Hits Banking Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
PHYSICAL GOLD PRICES leapt more than 3% at the start of world trade on Monday – and the US Dollar and Asian stock markets sank – on news that the Federal Reserve will today start lending directly to New York investment banks to "bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning."
The Gold Market then gave back half of its early gains to $1,015 per ounce, while European equities lost more than 3% from Friday's close.
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Monday, March 17, 2008
Gold Soars to $1027 on Bear Stearns Collapse / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $1023.50, £508.45 and €649.51 (up from $997.00, £491.617 and €641.158 Friday).
We are at new record nominal highs in gold in most major currencies and gold has surged through £500 per ounce (GBP) with sterling falling significantly against major currencies especially the euro (0.79).
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Sunday, March 16, 2008
Gold $1000 and Bullish, Silver Boxed in for a Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
WOW! $1000 per oz. Where to from here? I still remember when the DOW first breached its 1000 mark. It was 10 years before it went anywhere after that. I don't see the same for gold, but who knows?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Well, it hasn't quite hit my long term P&F projection of $1020 but it got awfully close. Maybe this week. The next projection would then be $1125. The very long term $1600 projection is getting closer and closer.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Crude Oil Bull Market Uncovers Two New Investment Opportunities / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Elliot_H_Gue
There are few countries or regions of the world that are seeing real growth in oil production. The simple fact is that the large onshore fields that have met the world's oil demand for decades are now mature and already seeing declining production.
To offset declines from these easy-to-produce oil and gas fields, producers will increasingly target smaller, more-complex fields, as well as fields that are harder and more expensive to reach.
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Friday, March 14, 2008
A Cheaper Dollar to Take Dollar Gold Prices Much Higher? / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
As with so many crises in history, the consequences of certain situations are not foreseen, or if they had been foreseen were downplayed to either inaction, or insufficient action. So it has been with the "sub-prime" crisis that is now a full blown liquidity crisis that is spreading like a gangrene into other aspects of the credit market. You may still wonder why this crisis is causing such a threat to the entire financial system so as to cause the Fed to 'throw money from helicopters'? The problem is essentially due to the functioning of collateral.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Mainstream Media View- Beaten-Down Stocks Going Cheap! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Oh gee, what a move! It took me almost two years to get back to break-even..."
"THE TIME TO MAKE MONEY in the stock market is not when things are going gangbusters," reckons Stephen Gandel – yet another senior writer at Money Magazine . (Do they have any juniors...? Just wondering.)
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