Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, June 07, 2019

Gold and HUI Short-term Strength Is a Strong Call to Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

One surprising news was followed by another surprising news. First, Trump told the world about his plan to keep increasing tariffs on Mexico, defying his own party. Then, no hint of relief had come regarding the China trade dispute. Finally, we have got the Fed discussing potential interest rate cuts. Investors have aggressively increased their bets on such monetary policy easing. Gold definitely welcomed that idea. Is its breakout to new 2019 highs inevitable?

It's not a sure bet, but a move to these highs just became more likely. Are the above-mentioned changes in investors’ expectations well founded? Not necessarily.

Typically, gold prices are believed to be inversely related to the interest rates. As a result, the interest rate cut should be positive for the gold prices. However, the cut in the federal funds rate by September is widely expected by the markets, so it should be already priced in. Hence, a lot of will depend on the signal sent by the Fed about the future stance of the monetary policy accompanying that move. But, frankly speaking, we do not see why the Fed should cut the interest rates by September. Unless we see a recession, the cut remains unlikely. The Fed should telegraph it earlier, but so far it only announced a pause in the tightening cycle, not its end. The wait-and-see mode does not necessarily imply a cut later in the future. In 2016, the Fed also paused for a year its tightening (from December 2015 to December 2016), but it did not cut the federal funds rate, it did not reverse the tightening move from the end of 2015.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

The Emerging Threat of Ferocious Agflation / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: MoneyMetals

Most Americans take food abundance for granted. Grocery store shelves are always stocked, and America’s agricultural sector always grows more than enough corn, wheat, and soybean crops to keep the food production system humming along smoothly.

That all could change as abruptly as the weather. In fact, historically wet conditions throughout the Midwest have put this year’s spring planting in jeopardy.

As reported by Minnesota Public Radio, “Corn is being planted at the slowest pace ever, while soybean seeding is the slowest since 1996. And with the start of June looming, many farmers are facing a tough choice — do they even try to get crops in the ground at all?”

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Gold and Silver Vindication... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses geopolitical events and movements in the precious metals markets. Hallelujah!

It was only a week ago that I was opining that there was nothing ominous in the technical picture for gold and silver that was altering my bullish stance; RSI and MACD were trending up and price was stubbornly refusing to yield to the myriad of bullion bank attacks mission-driven to force a crack of the critical $1,260.90 50-dma level so widely discussed in past weeks. As I show in the chart posted below, the first major up-gap in gold pricing occurred in the days back in October after the ratings agencies decided to "downgrade" the bonds of GE, a company that is now being seen as serially deficient in its reporting practices and masterfully adept at avoiding the long arm of SEC "law" (that's a joke ��) while using the stock price performance to advance book deals for the two rock star CEOs of the '90s and early 00s, Jack Welch and Jeff Immelt.

I actually wrote about GE back in 2005 after listening to a promotional video on the "unparalleled brilliance" of GE Financial whose use of leverage was deemed "second to none." Immelt was regurgitating the company line of "Growth without Regret" that Welch was spewing all through the mid-to-late-1990s with the objective being not an advancement in the "E" part of the price-to-earnings-ratio but rather a simple advancement in the "R," which does not (and most certainly DID NOT) involve any real growth whatsoever. All that Welch and Immelt cared about was the stock price; Welch was obsessed with advancing it while Immelt was obsessed with defending it. In the end, they have both faded off into the sunset and are rarely seen on CNBC anymore while long-term GE shareholders are now seriously underwater and searching for answers as to why-oh-why their retirement nest eggs went into the tank.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Torrid Advances in Gold ETFs Stocks Warrant Caution / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger explains how he is reacting to the advances in the gold ETFs. Given the torrid advance in gold (GLD [SPDR Gold Shares]) and the leveraged miner ETFs (NUGT [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]/JNUG [Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]), it is of note that RSI readings have screamed northward to the point where I don't think I can recall a shift in momentum quite this quickly or with such torque. Now, it doesn't automatically follow that these ETFs are going to crash. In fact, long after RSI readings topped out in February 2016, NUGT and JNUG continued to make new highs for the move. However, today's set-ups appear to be similar to 2016 so caution is warranted in both exiting too soon and staying too late, so how I deal with that is to take down a portion of the risk and that is precisely what we did yesterday.

GLD is somewhat more overbought than the miners so having pitched 50% of the June $120 calls yesterday (@ $5 plus), I am jettisoning the rest in order to leg out to the September calls at some point in the future. The preferable entry point will be in late June or early July or if the RSI numbers can get back to around 30 and preferably the 20s so as to reflect an oversold condition rather than the current overbought condition we have today.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Gold Monetary Base Ratio Show Closer To A Significant Monetary Event / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how we could be close to major financial/monetary crisis. The following chart that shows the ratio of gold to the monetary base was used:

Monday, June 03, 2019

Is Silver The Sleeper Rally Setup Of A Lifetime? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes Silver could be the Sleeper Rally setup of a lifetime for investors if the global economic cards continue to get scattered and crumpled over the next 10+ years.  The recent rally in Gold got a lot of attention last Friday (the end of May 2019).  We had been warning about this move for the past 8+ months and generated an incredible research post in early October 2018 that clearly highlighted our belief that Gold would peak above $1300 early in 2019, then stall and move toward $1270 near April/May 2019, then begin an incredible upside price rally in June/July/Aug 2019.  We couldn’t have been more clear about this prediction and we posted it publically in October 2018. See This Previous Gold Forecast Snapshot

Now, our research team is going to share with you some incredible insights into what may become the most incredible trade setup we’ve seen in the past 12+ years – the Sleeper Silver Setup.

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Told You So: The Bearish Momentum in Crude Oil Accelerates / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Oil price is melting down like there’s no tomorrow. How else could we describe the bloodbath? Fresh monthly lows being hit on a daily basis. Slicing through important supports. With such a weak close to the trading week, how will black gold fare the next one? Clearly, the most recent Mexico tariff announcement hasn’t helped and it’s widely felt in the markets, including this one. Better news on the horizon?

Friday, May 31, 2019

Smart Gold Investors Ask: Crisis or Zombification? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many people worry about the replay of the last economic crisis. But what if we look not in the direction from which the threat will come? What if we fight the last war? We invite you to read our today’s article about the possibility that the endgame will not to be a 2008-style financial crisis, but a slow, painful and unstoppable zombification of the global economy. And find out how it would affect the gold market.

We know that there is still a lot of time to Halloween. But please come with us to the cemetery to meet some zombie friends – who knows, maybe we will learn something about the economy and the gold market from them?

The current expansion is probably the most hated period of prosperity. Since the very end of the Great Recession, the pundits have been worried about the next economic crisis. We were told that the recession was just around the corner (the sellers of precious metals often aroused such fears). We have been hearing it for ten years.

Friday, May 31, 2019

Silver SIL Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have been pummeled in recent months, plunging near major secular lows in late May.  Sentiment in this tiny sector is miserable, reflecting silver prices continuing to languish relative to gold.  This has forced traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold, which has far-superior economics.  The major silver miners’ ongoing shift from silver is apparent in their recently-released Q1’19 results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The definitive list of major silver-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular silver-stock investment vehicle, the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  Launched way back in April 2010, it has maintained a big first-mover advantage.  SIL’s net assets were running $294m in mid-May near the end of Q1’s earnings season, 5.6x greater than its next-biggest competitor’s.  SIL is the leading silver-stock benchmark.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 - Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

When (Not If) Silver Has a "Bitcoin Moment" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In mid-May 2019 the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), was trading around $5,600. At $4,000, a prominent technician predicted it was gearing up for a run to $6,500. Yet when it reached $5,700, he recommended selling because of a technical "non-confirmation."

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Gold, Silver, Oil, Cryptos - Audio Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Are We Looking at a Dead Cat Bounce in Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Oil bulls look to have arrested the slide as there hasn’t been a down day since Thursday. One could easily expect a more vigorous rebound, however. The nearby resistances remain and black gold has hardly gone anywhere today so far. After the long weekend, will the bulls muster more strength, or does the technical picture favor another trip south in the coming days? The answer isn’t as easy as might be inferred from the Alert’s title...

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Here we go again..  We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research.  Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019″ .  We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.

On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”.  Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future.  Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Eurosceptics Gained Seats in the EU. Will Gold Shine Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

More than 200 million people in 28 nations voted in the second-largest democratic elections in the world. What interesting information can we glean from their vote – which way the wind blows now? Crucially, how does it reflect on gold?

Populists and Greens Gain Seats in the EU Parliament

People across the European Union have voted for in the European Parliament elections. Turnout was 50.5 percent, the highest level in 20 years. Last time, it stood just 42.6 percent. However, despite high turnout – which usually supports mainstream, big parties – the two biggest voting blocs have lost their majority in the European Parliament. The centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats will remain the two largest blocs, but they lost 74 seats. They had 403 of the 751 seats in the EU parliament, now they will have just 329 seats.

Sunday, May 26, 2019

An Oil Shock Could Be the Black Swan That Finally Drives Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up the top trends forecaster Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal joins me to discuss a myriad of topics. Gerald gives us more insight on why the precious metals are struggling, why he recently changed his economic forecast and also shares why he believes a continuation of the rising tensions in both Venezuela and the Middle East could lead to a spike in oil prices that the world simply cannot afford. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.

As global stock and commodity markets gyrate, gold and silver markets are gaining some safe haven strength.

Gold prices moved back into positive territory on Thursday but is little changed for week now. The yellow metal is up a slight 0.4% since last Friday’s close to trade at $1,284 per ounce.

Silver has been beaten down this spring but is at least showing some signs of life here during the later part of the week, or at the very least has appeared to stabilize a bit. The white metal is now up a 0.9% for the week to bring spot prices to $14.61 an ounce.

Turning to the platinum group metals, platinum registers a weekly loss of 2.2% to trade at $805. And finally, palladium shows a 0.7% decline to come in at $1,332 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls, Are You Serious About Arresting the Slide? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

We have said the bulls had a bad day on Wednesday. How would you rate their yesterday’s performance? Heck, they are not having a good day today either. Black gold is heading for the biggest weekly loss in 2019. Has the support fallen out from below? Where can we expect the decline to stop?

Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the demotivating effects of current market trends. With great apology, I am late with this week's missive largely due to the arrival of boating season and the fierce need to secure a new vehicle, which should have taken (only) two days but didn't. Having arrived at the marina on Friday evening, I expected a rather smooth transition as it was the first year in four that I asked our local service fellow to do all of the end-of-year maintenance, instead of me draining the lines and winterizing the water tank and changing the engine oil and all of those things I loved to do in my 40s but that have become a royal pain in the ass twenty years later. Call it "geezer-itus" or "baby-boomer angst," I agreed to let the local marina service group do all those debilitating tasks and simply threw them the keys while shouting "See ya next spring!"

I fully expecting a boat functioning this past weekend in exactly the condition in which it was functioning last October. Well, with great deference to Mr. Murphy and that obnoxious law named after him, my lovely little Freshwater Pearl was a mess of the highest and most irritating order, floors most foul, upholstery seams ripped, and obvious dings and dots from the reentry-to-the-water exercise. However, what really set me off was that my most-excellent winch-powered dinghy caddy was nonfunctional, and after five hours with limited workspace, I removed what I thought was the faulty part.

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Gold Mining Mid-Tier Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks in the sweet spot for price-appreciation potential have been struggling in recent months, grinding lower with gold.  Their strong early-year momentum has been sapped by recent stock-market euphoria.  But gold-mining stocks are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios.  The mid-tiers’ recently-reported Q1’19 results reveal their fundamentals remain sound and bullish.

The wild market action in Q4’18 emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks.  All portfolios need a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks!  As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 9.2% in December alone, nearly entering a new bear market, the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF surged 13.7% higher that month.  That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Rare Earths Sector ETF $REMX Booming Again On Trade War With China / Commodities / Rare Earths

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Summary
1)Rare earth critical mineral crisis heating up as China Retaliates against Trump Tariffs.
2)Rare Earth Shortage could cripple tech giants such as Apple and Tesla.
3)Rare Earth ETF $REMX was over $100 during last rare earth crisis in 2011 now its under $15.
4)If Chinese cut off rare earths, prices could skyrocket in parabolic rise.
5)China Controls Rare Earth Sector which was invented in USA.