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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, November 06, 2014

The Swiss Gold Initiative and Why it May Affect Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

The people of Switzerland go to the polls on 30th November to vote on the gold initiative. The proposal requires the Swiss National Bank to hold gold reserves of at least 20% of the value of the assets of the Swiss National Bank. The initiative also wants no further gold sales by the SNB and all Swiss Gold to be stored in Switzerland.

If the yes vote is successful then they would be required to buy 1500 tons of gold over a period of five years, in order to achieve the 20% target. This acquisition would then be held indefinitely as they would not be allowed to sell it. However, in the case of a yes vote, the referendum would still have to run the gauntlet in the Swiss parliament in order to gain ratification.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 06, 2014

Crude Oil, Gold, Are Commodity Price at a Major Turning Point? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Toby_Connor

As most of you probably know, I have been expecting the CRB to form a major three year cycle low sometime next summer. However, I'm now starting to see some things that might indicate a major cycle bottom is going to occur earlier than I expected.

Since oil is the main driver of the CRB, and most commodities will follow its lead, I'm going to focus on the action in oil. Notice in the next chart that oil has now reached oversold levels similar to, if not more extreme than, the previous two 3 year cycle lows.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 06, 2014

Gold, Economic Theory and Reality: A Conversation with Alan Greenspan / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

When Dr. Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve, he moved from the world of rhetorical economics to the world of action. His most recent memoir, "The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting," attempts to make sense of how the financial crisis of 2008 came to be and how we can better predict future crises, along with the role of gold in a global monetary system. In this excerpt from Greenspan's appearance at the New Orleans Investment Conference with Navellier & Associates Senior Writer Gary Alexander, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Publisher Marc Faber and Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry, The Gold Report delves into the role of gold versus fiat currency, why central banks own so much gold if it is truly "a barbarous relic," and the reason China is buying so much gold today.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Where Are Gold Prices Headed and How to Profit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DailyGainsLetter

George Leong writes: As far as investment and trading opportunities go, gold is currently the stock market’s poor cousin. No one really craves the yellow ore at this time. The reality is that unless you are looking for jewelry, there’s really no reason to buy the metal right now.

Back in September, when I last discussed the prospects for this precious metal, I wrote that “in the absence of further turmoil in Ukraine, gold prices could deteriorate to below $1,200, possibly even $1,180.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Global Scramble For Silver - Coins “Hard To Get,” “Premiums Likely To Jump” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Silver has had a torrid time in recent months and has fallen nearly 40% since July. In less than four months, it is down from $21.40/oz to $15.45/oz today. Silver is 70% lower since reaching over $49/oz in April 2011. The selling has accelerated in recent days and silver has fallen from $17.20/oz on October 28 and is down 12% in the last week. 

There is blood in the streets of the silver market with futures speculators long silver, again having their heads handed to them on a plate and incurring sharp losses. However, the silver sell off has again seen a global scramble for physical silver.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Natural Gas Prices are Going Higher (So are these “Super Shift” Investor Opportunities) / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: While everybody is focused on oil, natural gas prices are moving in a very different direction.

Up.

As of this afternoon, natural gas prices at Henry Hub stood at $4.15 per 1,000 cubic feet (or million BTUs). Since last Thursday, the price of natural gas has jumped by 13.7%.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Suppressed Uranium Price Shouldn't Keep Hedged Producers and Promising Explorers Down / Commodities / Uranium

By: Metals_Report

Near-term oversupply is suppressing uranium prices but there are signs of upside movement, says Colin Healey, research analyst with Haywood Securities. In this interview with The Mining Report, he notes that non-discretionary buying in the uranium spot market returned in Q3/14 after a lengthy absence and that the 71 reactors being built around the world should support Haywood's long-term $75/lb uranium forecast. Healey also discusses companies suited to perform in the current market and beyond.

The Mining Report: The spot price for uranium stayed below $30 per pound ($30/lb) in May through late July. Since then the price popped up above $36/lb before settling at around $35/lb. Is that the near-term floor?

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

A GREAT Model to Understand Gold Price Swings / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: EWI

What do the last three chairs of the U.S. Federal Reserve have in common?

Well, it's not their taste in structured black blazers. It's the fact that they all see gold as a kind of Winston Churchill-like nesting doll -- a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

July 2013: Then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he doesn't "pretend to understand gold prices... nobody does."

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Silver Price What Happens Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

Disclosure:  I expected the triple bottom in gold and silver to hold.  It did not!  Silver crashed lower (from $19.28 on August 28 to $17.26 on October 29 to under $16 on October 31) and then gold plunged below $1179 to about $1160.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Why We Need Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

High on High Priced Oil
Royal Dutch Shell's new chairman Chad Hallyday says that falling oil prices are the top of his agenda and like other “historic majors” such as ConocoPhillips and ENI, Shell gets a painful bottom line hit from lower prices. Reported by the 'Financial Times', October 31, Hallyday says that each $10 fall in the barrel price means $3 billion less earnings a year and a prolonged period of Brent prices around $85 a barrel would translate to $8 bn-a-year of reduced profits for Shell. Nevertheless Hallyday is not only a former BofA banking chief, but also co-chaired the UN's high level group on sustainable energy, which in 2011 pledged a doubling of renewable energy in world energy by 2030. The recent doomster grandstanding by UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon to “prevent planetary disaster from global warming” calls for the total elimination of all fossil fuels “before the end of the century”.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Understanding Global Monetary Policy: And How to Profit From It / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

To say that the last month as been turbulent in markets would be a drastic understatement. We saw the biggest intraday range in US bond yields in 16 years, equities nosedive then whipsaw right back to new highs, VIX hit the highest levels since 2011 whilst gold, silver and oil hit multi year lows. With such volatility around the theme of uncertainty is rife across financial markets, therefore it is important to reassess ones views of the market and properly understand the underlying drivers of market action.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Gold and U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold continued weak in its performance during September. The yellow metal’s price dropped almost 5.5% from $1286.50 to $1216.5 (London PM Fix). In the last Market Overview we came to the conclusion that the real interest rate is one of the main drivers of the gold price. Although the negative relationship between real interest rates and gold prices does not always hold, the recent medium-term declines (including the last month) were probably, to a large extent, caused by the rise in the long-term real interest rates.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Sunny Silver Price Forecast - Low Price Today Means High Price Tomorrow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: John_Rubino

Solar power has been the next big thing in energy for as long as most people have been alive. But it was always too expensive to be anything more than a niche technology, attractive more for its coolness than its efficiency. That has changed, in a big way.

According to a report by Deutsche Bank, generating electricity from sunlight is now as cheap as getting it from coal in most US states when current subsidies are included. Extrapolate the inexorably-falling cost of solar just a few more years, and the subsidies won’t be necessary.

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

Gold Price Declines Once Again As Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold and mining stocks declined yesterday in a rather profound way. The GDX ETF finally broke below its 2013 lows and the volume that corresponded to this action was high. However, silver almost didn’t react – why didn’t it? Will we see a rally shortly?

In short, not likely. There was a good reason for silver to hold up strongly at this time. However, before we move to this situation, let’s take a look at the “background info” – the changes in the USD Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

Gold, Silver Fell 5%, 6% Last Week - Remain Vulnerable / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,170.75, EUR 936.90 and GBP 731.90    per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,173.25, EUR 933.45 and GBP 733.47 per ounce.
Gold and silver were both sharply down for the week at 4.78% and 5.99% respectively.
Gold fell $26.30 or 2.2% to $1,172.40 per ounce Friday and silver slid $0.33 or 2% to $16.16 per ounce. 
Gold fell nearly 1% to $1,161.75/oz today and dropped to 4 year lows as the U.S. dollar strengthened and technical selling continued as prices had a weekly close below $1,180/oz. 

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

A Silver Primer - Where Are We Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

My wife killed one of our cars recently. It was a good car. Old, recycled, reliable, safe. 

We had a small coolant leak and the car had been overheating for some time. (Not all divisions of household labor and responsibilities are beneficial.)But we don’t drive much. When we do, it’s only for short distances. But not long enough to break down completely.

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

German Precious Metal Dealers Report Huge Run on Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Submissions

Goldreporter writes: Precious metal dealers in Germany have literally been run down after the latest slump in gold and silver. Wholesalers already expect deferred deliveries.

The latest plunge in gold and silver late last week has led to a sharp increase in demand by German precious metals investors, which also continued on Saturday. There was a particularly strong demand for silver coins. “On Thursday and Friday people had to draw numbers in order for us to control the run”, reports Andreas Heubach, CEO of Heubach Edelmetalle in Nuremberg. “On both days we sold each around 40,000 silver ounces – incredible”, he said. “Demand is back – and hysteria as well”, he evaluated.

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

Gold and Silver Price Bear Market- Phase III... The Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

This is part 1I of an essay by Plunger (Burt Coons). He is an extraordinary market historian and an associate with Rambus Chartology.

Precious Metals Bear Market- Phase III
The Strategy (Part III)

We ended our last essay, entitled "Phase III , Apocalypse Now" http://goldtadise.com/?p=342329

with the question has your market guru been advising you to buy all the way down from the highs of 2011? If so, don't you think its time to reexamine your premise. Well, if you have maybe you are ready to adopt a different strategy so as to survive the final phase III of this precious metals bear market. This final part 3 essay lays out a suggested game plan to both survive the bear and to transition to the next bull market in the PMs. I want to remind all readers that I am not anti gold. In fact, I am a long term hard money advocate who in fact is anti fiat money, however I prefer to lose my opinion over losing my money thus I am not attached to dogma and I strive to be objective while analyzing markets rather than apply my own ideology to fit the market. Part one can be read here: http://goldtadise.com/?p=341672

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

Gold Price Crash Through Key Support, Crude Oil in Freefall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

Gold finally crashed key support at last year's lows on Friday, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the prospect of an immediate severe decline at least to the strong support in the $1,000 area. Such a decline will have grave consequences for the Precious Metals mining industry, whose costs have risen sharply in recent years, and is expected to lead to a massive wave of company failures, as many who have been "hanging on by their fingernails" finally lose the fight and disappear over the cliff. This will eventually lead to an acute gold supply shortage, which will be exacerbated after the dollar's deflation panic "swan song" rally is done, and the dollar is then pushed off its perch as the global reserve currency by the actions of China and Russia (and others) working in concert to bring it down. This will lead to a massive resurgence in gold and silver and to the stocks of mining companies who weather the imminent Great Cull going ballistic.

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Commodities

Monday, November 03, 2014

Silver Price Breaks Long-term Support Likely to Drop Further / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

Silver finally broke down from its long-term uptrend late last week, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the risk of an immediate severe drop. As with gold, silver looks set to enter a cycle of company failure and mine closure leading to an eventual production shortfall, which, coupled with a falling dollar after its current deflation induced "swan song" rally has played out, leads in turn to sharply rising prices and a spectacular rally in the stocks of companies who have managed to survive the imminent Great Cull.

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