Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 20, 2017
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Rambus_Chartology
Since the Basic Materials sector is breaking out I would like to take an in-depth look at some of the stocks that make up the Basic Materials sector along with some commodities in general. Most commodities have had a tough go of it since they topped out in 2011, but there are some signs that they may be bottoming, which could lead to a substantial rally over the intermediate to the long term. As you will see some of the bottoming formations are very symmetrical while others are pretty ugly, but as long as they can make a higher high and higher low an uptrend is in place.
Lets start with the CRB index which built out a one year bearish rising wedge formation that broke to the downside in March of this year. The price action has been chopping to the downside and has gotten a bounce to the upside in late June. Normally the price objective of a rising wedge is down to the first reversal point where the pattern started to build out.
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Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Gold and GDX Trading Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: SurfCity
Short term we have started a new Trading or Daily Cycle. The much bigger question is have we also found a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low? That is still an open question.
I have Gold on day 4 and GDX on day 5 of their new Trading/Daily Cycles.
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Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Tom Beck, founder of Portfolio Wealth Global, delves into the factors that drives gold investment demand.
Gold prices peaked in 2011 at a price of $1,925 per ounce, and since then, it has plummeted.
The bottom was set in 2015 when gold was hated and disregarded by investors—it was trading for $1,099.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets, noting new lows in speculative positions, which should boost prices.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 / Commodities / Cannabis
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund's analysis of the charts is indicating that gold and silver are positioning for a big move upward.
We've had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. "Wait a minute", I hear you say, "prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?". Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental. When prices rose out of the late 2015 low, which was the Head of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown to advantage on the 10-year chart for GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) below, they were destined to retrace to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is what now has most investors very negative towards the sector again.
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC exports have come under pressure this week from technical threats to oil fields, with Saudi Arabia’s Manifa problems grabbing the headlines.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, while addressing the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, stated that the outlook for oil supplies is “increasingly worrying”, due to a loss of $1 trillion ($1000 billion) in investments last year. The skepticism shown by a majority of financial analysts and oil commentators about the real threat to global oil (and gas) production volumes was countered by the news that the production at Saudi Aramco’s main offshore oil field, Manifa, has been hit by technical problems. News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco's massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Rambus_Chartology
While most members are focused on the precious metals ,I’ve been waiting patiently for two other sectors to setup a long term buy signal which I believe happened last week. I know you are well aware of my mantra that big consolidation patterns lead to big impulse moves. What’s pretty amazing is these 2 sectors have an almost identical long term consolidation pattern and are breaking out at the same time. It stands to reason that if the Emerging Markets are going to be strong then the Basic Materials sector should benefit as well.
Most like to look at the EEM, emerging market index, but there is another emerging market index which trades with much more volume, VWO which I will use in this post. Lets start with just a simple daily line chart for VWO which shows a H&S bottom in place and a breakout yesterday of the blue bullish rising flag. Keep those two patterns in the back of your mind when we look at the longer term charts.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
COT Report Gets Even More Favorable For Gold And Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: John_Rubino
Just a quick, happy update on the gold/silver COT reports. See last week’s post for a little more background.
Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing.
The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
GOLD Bullish Price Action - DOW Contracting Triangle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Picking Great Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
One of the primary keys to success in investment and speculation is picking the right stocks to trade. That’s no mean feat, as it takes great effort, expertise, and time to winnow the whole field down to the likely winners with the best fundamentals. Although deeply out of favor now in the summer doldrums, the small contrarian gold-stock sector has generated truly epic gains for investors and speculators over the years.
I’ve been in the financial-newsletter business for 17 years now, after founding my company Zeal LLC way back in early 2000. I needed to do extensive markets and individual-stocks research to support my own personal speculation and investment, so I figured why not share it so others can benefit as well. Since then I’ve researched and written 765 web essays, 204 monthly newsletters, and 748 weekly newsletters.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Should Platinum Be More Expensive Than Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Platinum is one of the rarest elements in the world, much rarer than gold. This is why historically the white metal has been more valuable – just think of platinum credit cards which offer greater privileges and prestige than the gold ones. However, the ‘little silver’ has recently been traded at a discount to gold, as one can see in the chart below.
Thursday, July 13, 2017
India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– India gold imports in H1, 2017 greater than all of 2016
– India imported 521 tonnes of gold in first half of 2017
– H1 figure for gold imports $22.2 Bln versus $23 Bln in all ’16
– Gold demand was up 15% year- on-year in the first quarter
– June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago
– Annual total set to surpass 900 tons, strongest year since ’12
– “I trust gold more than the currencies of countries” – 63% of Indians in Survey
Thursday, July 13, 2017
Blockchain: The End of Gold Price Suppression / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
With so many rumors and complaints over the years about flash crashes, overleveraging, taking advantage of clients and overcharging, blockchain could signal the end of big banks having their way on the Comex and paper metals markets, says Tom Beck, founder of Portfolio Wealth Global.
I bought my first gold and silver coins in 2003. I was 21, and well on my way to becoming a proponent of free markets and commodity-based money.
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Thursday, July 13, 2017
There Is Only One Gold Fundamental… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Kelsey_Williams
There have been several articles recently proclaiming and detailing the fundamentals for gold. A few of them have some excellent points. Most of them don’t.
And there have been some polite discussions of applicability, meaning, and intent with regards to specific claims.
Some of the discussions involve protracted technical analysis and are quite lengthy. And some analysts have a special formula or barometer of their own, which they use to justify their claims or indicate correlation between gold and a wide variety of unrelated items.
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Thursday, July 13, 2017
Gold and Silver: Your Stomach Is Probably Wrenching Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Wall Street's largest firm, Goldman Sachs, is throwing in the towel on commodities, which reminds Lior Gantz, Wealth Research Group's founder, of 1998, when Merrill Lynch closed its commodities desk very close to the end of a cyclical bottom.
Gold is up for the year, but silver just made a 52-week-low.
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Thursday, July 13, 2017
Gold Industry Is In A Deep State Of Dysfunction, Delusion And Denial / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Stewart_Dougherty
In 1980, the Financial Deep State realized that there existed an extraordinary opportunity for serial plunder and profiteering: the manipulation of the gold and silver markets. They immediately mobilized to exploit it.
During the subsequent 37+ years (we are now well into the 38th), the Deep State manipulators have criminally looted the gold and silver markets, pocketing astronomical profits for themselves in the process, all of which have come from real victims on the other sides of their fraudulent trades. While literally billions of people worldwide have been financially damaged by this crime, many of them severely, not one of the perpetrators has spent so much as ten seconds in jail for the global looting spree they have conducted. This is because precious metals price fraud is a state-sponsored crime.
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Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Gold to Silver Ratio - Preparing for THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In the first part of the Preparing for THE Bottom series, we emphasized the need to be sure to stay alert and focused in the precious metals market, even though it may not appear all that interesting. We argued that preparing for the big moves in gold that are likely to be seen later this year should prove extremely worth one’s while. In the second part of the series, we discussed when, approximately, one can expect the key bottom in gold to form (reminder: this winter appears a likely target).
In today’s issue, we would like to feature one of the signs that are likely to confirm that the final bottom is indeed in. The thing that a relatively small number of investors follow (mostly those who have been interested in the sector for some time) are the intra-market ratios. One of the most important ones is the gold to silver ratio and to be honest, it’s no wonder that this ratio is so important – after all, gold and silver are the parts of the precious metals sector that practically everyone recognizes.
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Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Gold Bull or Bear? Elliot Meets Bressert / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: SurfCity
I would like to provide an update on what my expectations are with respect to Gold and PMs for the remainder of 2017.
First off, I now no longer feel that early May hosted the ICL for Gold and PMs but I do expect an ICL to unfold in Gold over the next week or so (see my last chart of this post). This update will focus mostly on Cycles analysis but will also bring in some elements of Elliot Wave (EW) Theory that will give you some insight of what I am looking for at the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in Gold. While I am not an EW expert or practitioner, I do understand its concepts and basic rules enough to use it in conjunction with my Cycle work. Both methodologies try to use Major Lows to determine the direction of the longer Cycles or Waves.
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Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Silver Price Plunge Is Nearing Completion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Silver’s plunge is nearing completion – Bloomberg analyst
– Silver’s 10% sharp fall in seconds remains “mystery”
– Plunge despite anemic global supply and strong demand
– Total silver supply declined in ’16 – lowest level since ’13
– Silver mine production down in ’16, first time in 14 years
– Total silver supply decreased by 32.6 Mln Ozs in 2016
– Supply deficit in 2016- fourth consecutive year (see table)
– “Falling knife” caution but opportunity presenting itself