Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 08, 2024
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Another week, another record high for gold.
On Wednesday, the monetary metal surged above $2,300 per ounce. It took a bit of a breather Thursday ahead of today’s key employment report but it rallied again on Friday.
Turning to silver, it made a significant breakout of its own this week. The white metal shot up above the $27 level to a fresh 2-year high and rallied to over $27.50 on Friday
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface
Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.
The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast services economy and construction (a product of the services industries, not a productive industry itself, unlike for example, manufacturing) as well as a continued trend of brisk government hiring this election year. I am not going to play politics (I am dispirited by both major parties) but as usual, I am going to lay out facts so that we can properly manage the situation from an investment perspective.
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT
With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud. But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?
What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clif_Droke
Of the many factors that determine gold price trends, the long-term cycle of inflation and deflation is of singular importance. The cycle in question corresponds closely to the 50-to-60-year economic periodicity known as the Kondratieff Wave (or K-Wave), but is in fact a separate cycle. As we’ll discuss here, the cycle tells us to expect a gradual acceleration of inflationary pressures between now and the year 2029, with particular significance for gold investors.
The K-Wave was brought to renown in the 1920s by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff and is widely regarded as the predominant economic super cycle. This cycle arguably represents the most casual approach to identifying the real supply/demand conditions of any free market economy and is especially applicable to the United States. (Cycle analysts have even identified this cycle as existing as far back as thousands of years ago in Assyria and the Roman Empire.)
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
This week investors are witnessing a historic move in gold prices. The precious metal finally broke above a longstanding overhead resistance level to reach new all-time highs.
On Thursday, gold closed at $2,170 per ounce – its highest level since…well, since records have been kept.
As of this Friday recording, gold checks in at $2,203 an ounce on the heels of a 5.2% advance on the week – its best week in nearly six months. Silver shows a weekly gain of 5.9% to bring spot prices to $24.70 an ounce. Platinum is up 3.0% to trade at $926. And finally, palladium is putting in a 6.7% gain this week to come in at $1,061 per ounce.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When you’re considering investing in precious metals, you are confronted with many options. Silver or gold? Bars or coins? And what in the world is an ETF?
Understanding the differences between an ETF and physical gold and silver is an important first step in the journey to precious metals investing.
ETF is an acronym for “Exchange Traded Fund.” In simplest terms, an ETF represents a basket of investments that trades on the market as a single entity. An ETF could represent just one commodity, such as oil, or it could hold a wide range of assets such as tech stocks. The mix of securities that can potentially be held in an ETF is limited only by your imagination.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GDXJ declined once again yesterday, but the situation in silver juniors is even worse!
Silver Juniors in Trouble
Yes, it is possible for a market to be in an even worse position than gold junior mining stocks – that’s the case with silver juniors.
To be precise, the GDXJ aims to be exposed to about 80% gold juniors and 20% of silver juniors, but the SILJ ETF aims to be exposed to just silver miners, with the focus on junior miners.
Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clive_Maund
I haven't written much about gold in the recent past — since the failed breakout attempt early in December — simply because I haven't known what to make of it, and that indecisiveness has been reflected in the market itself, where we have seen gold stuck in a fairly narrow trading range, but now things are starting to become a lot clearer both fundamentally and technically, and as we will proceed to see, it's not a pretty picture.
On gold's latest 6-month chart, we can see the trading range that has built out since early December, and it is now becoming clear that the pattern that has formed is a Head-and-Shoulders top that also has the characteristics of a Double or Triple Top or a Symmetrical Triangle and right now it is on the point of backing off from the Right Shoulder peak of the pattern.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The situation in gold and gold stocks is not stagnant. Something shifted. And the implications are not minor.
A Moment of Realization
In 1993, Aerosmith released the song called “Amazing”. I really enjoyed it when it came out and some of the lyrics stuck in my mind. When I was reviewing the charts to prepare today’s analysis, I recalled a part of that song. I wasn’t sure why, as it’s been sometime when I was listening to it.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold price rallied this week, and this got many heads turning. Rightfully so?
Let’s check the details and see what really happened.
Having said that, let’s take a look at gold’s rally.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
BP Oil Stock Bullish Formation and Its Consequences / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Submissions
The combination of supports and a candlestick formation encouraged the bulls to fight.How high could stock go?
Last week turned out to be a breakthrough for the bulls. They managed to maintain important support, which attracted buyers to the trading floor and resulted in further positive technical changes. How high can the bulls climb in the following days? You will find the answer to this question in the article below. Have a nice read.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
Gold:Silver Ratio Signals Silver on Sale / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Silver is underpriced.
In other words, silver is on sale.
The current gold-to-silver ratio reveals this.
This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Or to put it another way, the gold:silver ratio tells you the price of gold in silver.
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Monday, January 22, 2024
Is Natural Gas a Complete Failure? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Submissions
Thanks to the last week’s declines, natural gas lost 32% and approached the support area. What are the implications?
Major Decline in Natural Gas Prices
Last week, natural gas recorded its biggest decline in months. Could this have been predicted? What technical factors encouraged the bears to attack? What changes did this movement leave behind on the chart? You will find answers to these questions in today's article. Have a nice read!
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Sunday, January 21, 2024
Which Countries Have the Most Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Which countries have the most gold?
Central banks around the world have aggressively added gold to their reserves over the last several years.
In 2022, central bank gold buying came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Gold Builds Support at $2,000; What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Gold appears to have built solid support above $2,000 an ounce, but momentum to move higher in the short term has eased with uncertainty about the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But short-term sentiment aside, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish on the yellow metal.
The Fed appeared to surrender to inflation at its December meeting. While the central bank held rates steady, it signaled three rate cuts for 2024 with another four cuts in 2025. That would lower rates to between 2 and 2.5 percent.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Bitcoin Is No Substitute for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
With Bitcoin making the news last week when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved exchange traded funds, it’s a good time to review the topic again.
Bitcoin still offers the potential to serve as a form of honest money and to end-run the central bankers and politicians who have abused the fiat system so badly.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Hey, Remember About Gold Price’s Powerful Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold price has been falling in today’s pre-market trading, but… Given the recent (HUGE!) weekly reversal, does it really surprise anyone?
The Historical Context
Well, it might surprise those that easily forget what happened in the previous weeks and focus on just the day-to-day price swings, but the truth is that the context provided by previous weeks, months, and years (and the performance of other markets!) matters a lot.
I previously wrote about some details coming from the broader perspective and some from the immediate-term analysis, and all that remains true. The recent weekly reversal was so huge that its impact on the next weeks really needs to be kept in mind at all times. It’s not likely that a daily price moves in any direction (especially that gold is lower today…) would invalidate the implications of the powerful weekly (!) reversal.
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Silver Price Still Underperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While the yellow metal hit a new record high, the silver price remains below its post-pandemic peak.
Recession Risks Loom Over Silver
While gold has dominated the headlines recently, silver and mining stocks have been material underperformers. And with the latter better barometers of investors’ enthusiasm, their relative weakness should concern the permabulls.
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Friday, December 01, 2023
Gold Shines as the Economic Outlook Darkens / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While looser monetary policy may seem bullish in the short term, the medium-term ramifications could upend the yellow metal.
Recession Pessimism Ahead
The ‘bad news is good news’ trade continues to dominate the financial markets, as weaker economic data is perceived as bullish for risk assets. In a nutshell: if the Fed pivots and ends QT, all of investors’ problems will disappear. However, while the narrative has helped gold, an ominous economic backdrop should result in much lower prices in the months ahead.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver just shot up, and given what the stock market is doing, it makes perfect sense.
Namely, it’s most likely the final part of the rally in them both, and the same is the case for gold and mining stocks.