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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In our continued effort to help skilled traders/investors understand the future risks associated with geopolitical market turmoil, the EU Elections next week and the continued US/China trade war, this Part III of our Sector Rotation article will highlight certain sectors that we believe may continue to perform over the next 12 to 24+ months and help traders/investors survive any extended price volatility/rotation over that same time. Read Part I, and Part II.

Currently, the US stock market has weathered a bit of a jolt in terms of price rotation.  After many stock indexes reached new all-time highs, the news of Iran Oil Sanctions, US/China trade talks failing and the political turmoil in DC as an incredible 2020 US Presidential election cycle heats up, investors are watching the markets for any signs of strength or weakness.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against other global currencies in an incredible show of “King Dollar” strength and dominance.  All of this plays into one of our favorite narratives that we started discussing over 30 months ago – the Global Capital Shift.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Gold’s Exciting Boredom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The last few trading days in gold were quite interesting, but overall gold has been a quite boring market in the last couple of months. Gold’s volatility index dropped to new lows as the current back and forth movement is just a small part of the same kind of movement on a broader scale. It’s more of the same. And when gold’s volatility gets very low, interesting things tend to happen next over 80% of the time. In other words, the situation in gold is now so boring that it’s a signal on its own. In today’s analysis, we’ll dig into details.

It’s time for gold’s boring, yet effective signal.

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Commodities

Monday, May 20, 2019

Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan and Canada are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending. In other words, such governments do not need taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency.”  Investopedia

Of course governments are not ‘constrained’ by revenues. They have always been able to “print as much as they need”.

Modern Monetary Theory is not ‘modern’. Far from it. 

In the late eighteenth century, France was deeply in debt. A general lack of capital and confidence had taken its toll and the economy was lacking in signs of activity. Growth was stagnant.

The conditions were such that it would be reasonable to expect a return to better times without interference by government. Unfortunately, that would require patience and restraint by the politicians. Most politicians cannot resist the cries of “do something”. Even if the cries are non-existent, the government will hear them.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 18, 2019

What Does the New Fed’s Regime Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed promised that the quantitative easing would be only temporary and that it would reduce its ballooned balance sheet to the pre-crisis level. Now, as the Fed adopted an interest targeting with ample-reserves, we know that this is not going to happen. We invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s regime and find out how it works and what it implies for the US monetary policy and the precious metals.

The discussion about the US monetary policy concentrates on the changes in the interest rates and Fed’s balance sheet. But what is also very important is how the US central bank implements its monetary policy, especially that in recent years the Fed has started operating in a new monetary policy implementation regime. Let’s analyze that change and its implications for the economy and the gold market.

Before the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers, life was simple. And the economic textbooks adequately described how the US central bank conducted the monetary policy. In short, the FOMC set a target for the federal funds rate and reached that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. The commercial banks had to hold some reserve balances to meet the reserve requirements. Banks who lacked these reserves, borrowed them in the federal funds market from banks who had excess liquidity. As the reserves were scarce, the Fed could affect the level of the federal funds rate and move it to the target level through changes in the supply of reserves, known as open market operations. For example, when the Fed observed that the market rate is above the target, it purchased the government bonds adding reserve balances to the banking system and creating downward pressure on the market rate.

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Commodities

Friday, May 17, 2019

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners’ stocks are drifting sideways with gold, their early-year momentum sapped by the recent stock-market euphoria.  But they are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios, a rare sector that surges when stock markets weaken.  Their just-reported Q1’19 results reveal how gold miners are faring as a sector, and their current fundamentals are way better than bearish psychology implies.

The wild market action in Q4’18 again emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks.  Every portfolio needs a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks.  As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 19.8% largely in that quarter to nearly enter a bear market, the leading gold-stock ETF rallied 11.4% higher in that span.  That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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Commodities

Friday, May 17, 2019

Where Next For Gold After Touching the $1,300 Mark? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Monday, the price of gold has briefly jumped above $1,300. For the next two days, the yellow metal has been holding near that important psychological level, although it failed to rally subsequently. Let’s take a look at the trigger(s) of the upward move. The reaction of the gold market over the following days is pretty telling...

China Strikes Back

It has been a hot week! Indeed, just look at the chart below. As you can see, the price of the yellow metal leaped to $1,300 on Monday, even surpassing briefly that key level. What happened exactly?

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Commodities

Friday, May 17, 2019

Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although most of the precious metals sector has trended lower in recent months, Gold has held up well. It and the other, weaker components of precious metals got a boost on Monday when China retaliated with tariffs of its own.

There has been little follow through since.

This begs the question, will a trade war lead to a new bull market in precious metals?

The short answer is yes if it leads to a downturn and Fed rate cuts.

Rate cuts coupled with higher inflation due to the tariffs is a very bullish combination for precious metals.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update some ratio combo charts which may give us a sense of the bigger picture. Its like putting the pieces of a puzzle together where the small pieces don’t look like much by themselves but when they’re all added together it paints a clear picture. These ratio combo charts are just a piece of the puzzle that may add some clarity to some of the individual sectors.

Lets start with the TIP:TLT ratio chart in black with the TLT in red, which I use for the inflation/deflation debate. Most investors have their own individual stocks they like to look at in trying to answer the age old question, are we in an inflationary or deflationary cycle? When the ratio in black is rising it shows signs of inflation and when it’s falling deflation becomes possible.

On the left hand side of the chart you can see how the ratio in black topped out while the TLT was bottoming in 2011. Also at the bottom of the chart I have added the GDX and the CRB index with the 30 week ema which also topped out in 2011. Since the 2011 high the main trend has been down for the ratio chart in black which shows deflation. In July of 2016 both the ratio and the TLT topped out beginning a consolidation phase that would last for about 2 1/2 years with each forming a triangle consolidation pattern. In November of 2018 both broke out of their respective triangles signaling that we may see some deflation in our future. Again, at the bottom of the chart you can see the CRB index along with the GDX are currently trading below their 30 week ema which is not the end of the world but short term negative. The bottom line is that as long as the ratio in black keeps falling the odds favor a possible deflationary event maybe in the cards in the future.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system.  It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.

The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher.  The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.

This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system.  The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak.  We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports / Commodities / Rare Earths

By: Richard_Mills

On Friday the United States made good on its threat to ratchet up the trade war against China, after the two parties failed, after weeks of negotiations, to reach a deal.

The Trump administration hiked tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, adding to the $50 billion in goods already being taxed at that level. The tariff hikes went into effect at midnight on Thursday.

The negotiations appeared to be going well up until a couple of days ago, when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer accused the Chinese of reneging on earlier commitments.

Nobody outside the trade delegations knows what went on behind closed doors in Washington, but it appears to us that the American team just got played. Dealing with China, or other Asian nations for that matter, is different from negotiating with fellow North Americans, or Europeans. It’s important to come across as respectful, and calm. Shrewdness is valued. Bluster and strong-arming are frowned upon.

Chinese negotiators will seldom agree to the first draft of a deal; the more common practice is to go back on what was discussed and amend the agreement, knowing full well that the other side won’t accept. But that’s ok. Like a chess game, the Chinese delegation was likely awaiting the next US move. Instead the American delegation slammed its fist on the chess board, immediately ending the game.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on the effects of Twitter and political maneuvers on the markets, and specifically on a favorite gold explorer.

I have a confession to make: There are no free markets anymore; there are only interventions. Of course, I bow to Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) cofounder Chris Powell, who coined that brilliant phrase a few years ago, because it was certainly my exposure to GATA in 2005 that changed my perception of the insidious role of the bullion banks in controlling price and sentiment.

That, in fact, has since been expanded to include not just gold and silver but LIBOR, Fed funds, corporate bonds and, finally, stocks. The delivery method used to be one of the hired mouthpieces on CNBC, like former reporters Charlie Gasparino or Maria Bartiromo, but both have moved on and were replaced not by reporters with a "scoop," but rather central bank governors themselves. This has been the case for most of the pre- and post-global financial crisis period—up until the election of the current president, who has, along with several cabinet members such as Larry Kudlow and Smilin' Stevie Mnuchin, discovered that sending out messages to either roil or calm markets is best carried out via Twitter.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls Attempt to Repair Yesterday’s Damage / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

We have seen a pretty sharp oil reversal yesterday. The U.S. session sent oil bulls packing. Not giving up, they’re attempting a comeback today. Geopolitical news to their rescue: the drone attacks on key Saudi pipelines. Emboldened by this tailwind, do the oil bulls stand a chance of reversing the tide of recent declines?

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely.  We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months.  Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall.  The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.

We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves.  In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place.  The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team.  Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Will the Transitory Inflation Turn into a Tailwind for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Chair Powell claims that subdued inflation is caused by transitory factors. Does the recent data confirms his views? And just how transitory is the new tariff rate on $200bn Chinese imports? Will we see a creep higher in inflation about to lift the gold prices?

CPI Edges Up

At the post-FOMC press conference in May, Jerome Powell said that some transitory factors could be responsible for muted inflationary pressure. The latest data seems to support his view that the recent slowdown in inflation was temporary.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

In a recent edition of Credit Bubble Bulletin,  Doug Noland, the long-time critic of contemporary monetary policy, writes about the odd times in which we live from a financial perspective.  “Such a precarious time in history,” he laments. “So much crazy talk has drowned out the reasonable. Deficits don’t matter, so why not a trillion or two for infrastructure? Our federal government posted a $691 billion deficit through the first six months of the fiscal year – running 15% above the year-ago level. Yet no amount of supply will ever impact Treasury prices – period. A Federal Reserve governor nominee taking a shot at ‘growth phobiacs’ within the Fed’s ‘temple of secrecy’, while saying growth can easily reach 3 to 4% (5% might be a ‘stretch’). Larry Kudlow saying the Fed might not raise rates again during his lifetime. Little wonder highly speculative global markets have become obsessed with the plausible.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We had warned you about the miners’ bluff and we hope that you heeded it. Gold is still testing the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern, but silver is already back at its 2019 lows, while miners broke decisively below them. It may seem that the miners have declined enough and that a rebound is imminent from these levels. Should you hold your breath? Are we on a doorstep of a tradable rebound, or it ain’t here just yet?

To answer that, let’s turn to two analytical gems that have served us so well in the past. Not once, but many times.

We would like to point your attention to two factors that confirm that the next move lower is going to be significant. Yes, we know that you already know that as we provided myriads of details beforehand, but looking at the situation from a fresh perspective and seeing new signals makes it easier to be patient before the move gathers real momentum.

The first of them is the analysis of the silver stocks, and the second is the analysis of the popularity of 2 key search phrases for the gold market. Let’s start with the former.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of SLV (Silver ETF) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: WavePatternTraders

Is it time to be looking to buy Silver?

Into the Feb 2019 highs, traders had turned very bullish on the metals, understandably so, as the metals had been rallying for a number of months from their respective 2018 lows. Upside targets were being increased from the precious metals Gurus, and traders/investors were buying the short term bullish hype.
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Commodities

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins me for a sensational interview on how he views the precious metals now and which one he favors over the others. Plus, Greg has some warnings about why a failure to finalize a trade deal with China very soon could be very problematic for the U.S. stock market. So, be sure to stick around for one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.

As volatility unnerved stock market investors this week, gold proved to be a good safe haven. The yellow metal didn’t move all that much, but it did provide some measure of stability. For the week, gold prices are up 0.5% to trade at $1,287 per ounce.

Turning to the white metals, they are succumbing to wider selling pressure in economically sensitive assets. Silver shows a weekly loss of 1.4% to bring spot prices to $14.80 an ounce. Platinum is off 1.0% since last Friday to come in at $866. And finally, palladium is rallying strongly today and is now showing only a 0.6% decline on the week to trade at $1,355 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.

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Commodities

Friday, May 10, 2019

What is a Bigger Alchemists’ Dream: MMT or Transmutation Into Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Traditional alchemist always desired to turn lead into gold. The modern ones want to increase government spending without any limits. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Modern Monetary Theory and find out what is it and what would mean for the gold market, if implemented.

Great news for all who oppose the House of Lannister’s rule in King’s Landing – the final season of the Game of Thrones has eventually began, so the status quo in Westeros will be certainly challenged. Similarly, we have joyous news for all who dislike the mainstream economics – the new theory has recently joined the game of thrones among the economic theories after the Great Recession. The fresh alternative which is quickly gaining popularity is the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). What is it and what would it bring for the economy and the gold market, if implemented?

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Commodities

Friday, May 10, 2019

Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?

Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…

The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.

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