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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Due for Bounce, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector has declined sharply in recent weeks with no pause or intermittent breaks in the decline. Including today, Gold is down eight consecutive days and 16 of the past 18 days. The gold miners (GDX) have lost roughly 20% in the past seven days. The sector is extremely oversold in the short term and a reflex rally culd begin in the next few days. While Gold and gold bugs should get temporary relief, the larger picture remains quite bearish.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Shorts Savage Gold After Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has enjoyed a strong new uptrend in recent months following last summer’s extreme gold-futures shorting attack.  But speculators returned with a vengeance this past week, aggressively dumping gold futures again following a hawkish surprise by the Fed.  The resulting gold plunge shattered its support, and thrust sentiment back into hyper-bearish territory.  But gold-futures shorting soon reverses to big buying.

In recent years the gold-futures trading by American speculators has utterly dominated the gold price.  With investors still missing in action thanks to the Fed’s astounding stock-market levitation, speculators’ reign is unchallenged.  Gold is not only at the mercy of their mercurial sentiment, the leveraged nature of futures speculation grants their collective trades an outsized impact on gold’s price.  They rule the roost today.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Gold And Silver - Deception, Not Fundamentals Rule Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

There are two things we know for certain about gold and silver: 1. Fundamentals do not apply [currently], and 2. There are no signs to indicate an end to this half-decade old bear market.

There have been many calls for a turnaround in gold and silver since 2013. In fact, the calls were not just for a turnaround, but also calls for $10,000+ gold, and $400+ silver, starting in 2014. It became apparent to us in the first half of 2014 that it would end with a whimper, just as 2013 did, and as 2014 continued, it seemed equally as likely that 2015 may not fare much better, and it not only did not, but it got worse with lower prices and the prospects for still lower prices to come. This puts the first part of 2016 in question.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Does Bond Market Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many gold market analysts focus on irrelevant, but catchy factors, such as mining production or jewelry demand. Others think gold is a simple inflation or stock market hedge. It is a bit strange that the relationship between the bond and gold markets is not commonly examined, given that bond market is much bigger than stock market, while real interest rates are one of the main drivers of the price of gold. The negative relationship between gold and interest rates imply positive correlations with bond prices, since the price of bonds is negatively related to the yields they offer.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Oil Megaprojects Won't Stay On The Shelf For Long / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject.

For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Silver Prices and Options Expiration / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Notes on what we covered…

  • Review of the where we are in the series
  • What are options?
  • Life options versus financial options
  • Options and derivatives
  • Who writes the majority of options?
  • Options Leverage
  • OTC options
  • Incentive for expiring out of the money and their influence on price.
  • The set up for silver price volatility around options expiration
  • Commercial shorts versus managed money traders.
  • Being prepared for options expiration, and what you can do.
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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Crude Oil Price More Weakness In Sight / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil has turned up in September when price broke out of a triangle placed in wave (b) so wave (c) was final with wave 4 pullback that reached 50.50 resistance from where sell-off occurred in October. As such, we suspect that WTI made a new swing now that will send price down into wave 5 back to 37.70. Broken corrective channel also suggests more weakness ahead,but after wave (ii) is complete.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

The Discipline of Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Consider these round number costs in digital (dishonest) dollars:

1,000 ounce Silver Bar                                                                   $17,000

or         Hillary Clinton speech                                              $300,000

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Gold Showing Signs of Final Degree Bloodbath Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

While everyone is getting more and more bearish gold is showing all the signs of being in a final intermediate degree bloodbath phase. Notice the similar 5-7 day capitulation to the last 4 ICL's. Notice the extreme oversold oscillators indicative of a major intermediate degree bottom approaching.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Day Follows Night : Gold Follows US Bonds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

For the same reason as the Euro was sharply lower today, so was gold, namely, a hawkish Yellen testimony in which see used the words, "living possibility" when referring to a potential December rate hike.

With interest rates moving higher on the Ten Year Treasury once more today, ( at 2.23% as I type this), gold simply cannot compete with better returns on interest bearing assets such as notes and bonds as it casts off no yield whatsoever and depends completely on capital gains to produce any sort of increase for its owners.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Don’t Trust Gold Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

Just when the short-term prospects for Gold were looking good, precious metals reversed lower this past week. It could be that Gold was surprised by last week’s FOMC minutes, which signaled a potential December rate hike. When the minutes were released, Gold dropped immediately, and it’s been straight downhill for the metals since.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Gold Price Cycle Low Friday Morning With U.S. Employment Report / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

The most likely timing band for the daily cycle to bottom is on the employment report Friday morning. There should be a short term tradable rally even if its's only for 4-8 days as gold should try to break the cycle down trend line. Stay patient for a few more days. Wait for gold to form a swing low before trying to buy.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Marc Faber “Great Optimist” Says “I Added To My Gold Position” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Marc Faber, Swiss economist, forecaster, renowned investor and the original Dr. Doom, may need a new nickname.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor revealed he may not be as bearish as some may think and that he is actually a “great optimist.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Hedging HAL With Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_J_Kosares

In the month of October, there were thirteen two hour blocks during which gold traded in a range greater than $10 – not an alarming price range to be sure, but collectively, these high activity moments represent the most volatile trading periods for the gold price all month – by far.  What’s more interesting is that a whopping ten of the thirteen occurred well within the first hour of trading on the COMEX (6AM MST), frequently on little to no news of any consequence, at a time when most normal people are barely making their way to the coffee machine.  By contrast, only three occurred later in the trading day – the first corresponded with the release of the Fed Minutes (Oct 8), the second with an important numbers miss, and the third the release of the Fed policy statement (Oct 28) – in other words, during times when price volatility was justified, reasonable, and expected.  Welcome to the world of algorithmic trading – the new normal for all financial markets.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

The Circle of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

A – 1913:  Gold was money in the United States.  Double eagles ($20.00), Eagles ($10.00), and Half-Eagles ($5.00) circulated freely.  Silver dollars and smaller coins were common  and used for commerce.  And then the bankers created “The Federal Reserve.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Gold Price Getting Very Deep / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Gold is getting very deep in its daily cycle. One requirement to confirm a daily cycle low is a break do the cycle downtrend line.

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2015

Will The Fed Hike In December & What Does This Mean For Gold Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

The October statement from the Fed made one thing very clear; December is a live meeting and Fed is ready to hike rates if it sees fit. Yellen was more hawkish than the market was expecting, sending gold prices lower and bond yields higher. The critical focal point from here will be if the Fed’s hawkish stance will be validated by the upcoming economic data, most importantly the two employment releases we get between now and the December FOMC.

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2015

Gold Selling “Malevolent Force”? – Dennis Gartman / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Dennis Gartman, author of the institutionally well followed ‘The Gartman Letter,’ has asked questions about gold’s peculiar price action last week and raised the question as to whether there was official central bank manipulation of gold prices.

Gold was 2.4% higher in October but fell 2% last week as the Fed again suggested they may soon increase interest rates. Gartman’s assertion is significant as he is no so-called ‘goldbug’. In fact, he is the darling of Wall Street, Bloomberg, CNBC and is highly respected and followed by large hedge funds and financial institutions.

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2015

Gold Price Testing Triangle Trend Line / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

We've known all along that gold was going to test the triangle trend line during this daily correction. Yet now that it's happening everyone seems surprised.

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2015

Silver and COMEX Inventory Part 1 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

During our recent Q&A interview with silver analyst, Ted Butler, the issue of frantic in and out movement of physical silver within the COMEX warehouse system came up more than a few times.

We asked Ted if he could describe how this movement literally works…

"Are these literally trucks?

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