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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, September 09, 2018

Gold Price Balanced on a Knife Edge at $1200 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold price that began 2018 strongly continuing it's bull run from a Mid December 2017 swing low of 1238, rising to a February peak of $1365 before correcting to a March low of $1309 that set the scene for a trading range of $1365 to $1309 pending a breakout higher. Then two further attempts at breaking above $1365 failed to materialise, instead resulting in the Gold price breaking below $1309 support during May which put the Gold price on a decidedly downwards trend trajectory where each rally off each subsequent low failed to follow through, thus resulting in a relentless downtrend all the way to what at the start of the year would have seemed a completely unimaginable price for Gold to trade down to by Mid year of $1167.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 09, 2018

The Gold Price Rally is Finally Here! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – price looks to have capitulated into a low at $1162 and I am now looking for price to trade down and set up a higher low.

Bollinger Bands – price fell just short of the upper band and is now back at the middle band which has been providing support. I expect this support to give way with price pushing into the lower band to set up the higher low.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 08, 2018

Long Term Gold and Currency Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update some of the PM charts we’ve been following to see how they’ve been progressing starting with the massive ten year H&S top on gold. Since the price action broke below the neckline several weeks ago it’s a week to week observation to see how the backtest is playing out. The backtest to the neckline comes in around the 1225 area with this weeks high at 1212.70 so the backtest held for another week. What we need to see next for the current move lower to continue is to see a new weekly close below the previous weekly low.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 08, 2018

The Bullish CoT Setups in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

You may know me as the guy using weird planetary alignments while assigning proper fundamentals to the gold sector, and recently even doing the same with a somewhat subjective and philosophical view of gold as an important counterweight or insurance component to a sensible portfolio. Or you may know me as the guy who confuses you with too many market indicators or annoys you with too many exposés of the more promotional and/or manipulative entities out there.

Or you may not know me at all.

If that is the case, let me introduce myself. My name is Gary and today I have a very simple post for your consideration. We will look at the now compelling views of the Commitments of Traders (CoT) data for gold and silver. While the prices of the metals are and have been technically bearish and the fundamentals are and have been poor, sentiment (CoT is ultimately a sentiment thing, after all) setups like those shown below should not be ignored. We are talking historic in silver and merely compelling in gold.

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Commodities

Friday, September 07, 2018

Congressmen Introduce Bill to End Taxation of Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Washington, DC (September 7, 2018) – The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act – backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation.

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Commodities

Friday, September 07, 2018

Record Gold and Silver Shorts! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and silver were thrashed this past summer, relentlessly pounded to deep new lows.  That has fueled extreme bearishness, with traders convinced the precious metals’ fundamentals are rotten.  But epic all-time-record futures short selling by speculators was the real culprit.  These unprecedented shorts must soon be covered with proportional buying, which is super-bullish for gold and silver prices in the coming months.

Traders generally assume fundamentals drive short-term price action, that real imbalances in supply and demand push prices to market-clearing levels.  Unfortunately these core underlying dynamics are heavily distorted in gold and silver.  Futures speculators who never own these precious metals are able to wield wildly-disproportional outsized influence over their prices.  The main reason is extreme leverage inherent in futures.

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Commodities

Friday, September 07, 2018

Gold Asks: If Not Recession, Then What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We are on the verge of recession. The Fed tightens and in the past it has never ended well. Yield curve is almost flat. When it inverses, it will be the end. All the bubbles will burst, pushing the global economy into another crisis. It will be more serious than all the previous cases, especially given that Trump will trigger a trade war or maybe even a conventional one.

Have you heard these gloomy prophecies? We have. Many times, probably too many times. But what if they are wrong? Let’s run our imagination wild and think what if this time is really different. We know, we know: it isn’t. But, as a counterweight for all these pessimistic narratives, let’s see what is the most rosy scenario for the world – and what does it imply for the gold market.

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Commodities

Friday, September 07, 2018

Gold Miners Setting Up for Big Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The recent rally attempt of the gold stocks fizzled out as the December 2016 lows failed to hold. Now the miners are making new lows. As they pine for the next support they figure to be even more oversold as more bulls throw in the towel. These are the conditions needed to engender a significant counter-trend rebound. While we aren’t predicting it yet, look for a bullish reversal to begin sometime in the next few weeks.

The gold stocks have lost their December 2016 support but strong support is not too far away. The breakdown in GDX below $21 projects to a measured downside target of roughly $16.50. That aligns with the next strong support level on the chart. The breakdown in GDXJ projects down to the $23-$24 area. That is very close to the next strong support level around $24-$25.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Crude Oil Price Likely To Find Support In Uptrend / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market.  I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70~71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days.  I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.  When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers.  In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Gold-Acquiring Foreign Powers Put Petro-Dollar in Jeopardy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

President Donald Trump’s administration is playing a game of high-stakes international chess with Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, and other countries viewed as adversaries in trade and geopolitics.

It’s not necessarily the case that tariffs, sanctions, and blustering will result in a hot war. More likely, escalating strife between the U.S. and a bloc of much more populous adversaries will push them to unite more closely to undermine and ultimately dethrone King Dollar.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Are Bitcoin and Gold Bottoming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Bitcoin plunged from 7385 to 6830, or 7.5%, Wednesday in reaction to a Business Insider report that Goldman Sachs has decided to drop a year-ago decision to create a crypto-currency trading desk.

Apparently, Goldman is "uncertain" about the regulatory environment. Hmm, really? Since when has Goldman shied away from forging a new path while it influences the architecture of a new regulatory environment?

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Precious Metals Sector Now on a Long-term Sell Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Why Would You Even Think About Buying Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Gold is a relic of the past. There is no interest from the millennials for gold. The cryptocurrencies are taking demand away from gold. Central banks have been selling gold over the last few years. Interest rates do not support a rally in gold. Gold funds have been closing of late, which evidences the lack of demand for gold.

We have heard so many reasons as to why no one should buy gold. In fact, the people you speak with about gold either view it with disgust (those who own it) or complete indifference (those who do not).

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Gold and Silver’s Stormy September / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

There were only a few analyses that we started with a quote, and there were even fewer that we began by quoting a song. It may even be the first one ever.

I am the storm and I am the wonder
And the flashlights, nightmares
And sudden explosions

  • Royksopp, “What Else Is There”

And you will have all the above in September. At least if you’re going to pay attention to gold, silver and mining stocks.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Gold Price Analysis: 3 Ideas Make Tough Trading / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: WavePatternTraders

If you have been following Gold over the last few years you are probably frustrated like most Gold bulls are, essentially Gold and Gold stocks have gone nowhere for the past two years, although you could argue that the many Gold stocks have a downwards bias the past two years, but Gold is still above the Dec 2016 lows.

There are a number of patterns that I am currently watching and no one idea has a strong foothold, although if any upside fails to move above $1340, then it will make a better case for Idea 3 and a large triangle has been in progress over the last 2 years.

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Commodities

Monday, September 03, 2018

Super Bullish Gold and Silver Set-Up Does Not Bode Well for the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and silver and finds some positive signs. If you want to understand the great mass of investors, you don't need to spend hours reading a book written about a hundred years ago, the best way way to do it is to treat yourself to some time watching sheep. You can even make something of a vacation of it by going along to a sheep dog trial, such as the classic ones held on the English–Welsh borders in the heart of sheep country or in New Zealand. It's a fun day out and you can learn from chatting with the farmers, and more to the point, you can learn a lot about investors by watching the sheepdogs and the sheep—all you have to remember is that the sheepdogs are the Smart Money and the sheep represent the great mass of investors, the so-called Dumb Money. If you do go to the sheepdog trials on the English–Welsh borders, remember to tag on a day or two to visit nearby Hay-on-Wye, which is stuffed full of secondhand bookshops where you can find some great old books, and mercifully very few of them are written in Welsh.

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Commodities

Monday, September 03, 2018

Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The major silver miners’ stocks have been thrashed, pummeled to brutal multi-year lows.  They suffered serious collateral damage as silver plunged on gold’s breakdown, driven by crazy-extreme all-time-record silver-futures short selling.  All this technical carnage left investors reeling, devastating sentiment.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q2’18 results reveal whether their anomalous plunge was justified fundamentally.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 02, 2018

Gold is the Sun, and an Anchor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The ‘Gold as Inflation Hedge’ Canard

On the one hand you have the sons of Harvey & Erb, who called gold to $800/oz. and caused a stir in the gold “community”. Per Campbell Harvey in this video with Kitco’s Daniella (dig the flowing golden locks of hair)…

“Gold is just too volatile” to be an effective inflation hedge.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 01, 2018

Upside Targets for Gold, Gold Stocks & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

After a vicious selloff precious metals have stabilized. Its not a surprise given the breadth and sentiment extremes we noted and had predicted earlier. Although recent gains have met some resistance, the immediate path of least resistance should be higher. Let’s take a look at the key support and resistance levels for the metals and the miners.

Gold has retreated after hitting $1220/oz a few days ago. That was the first area of resistance for this rebound. The next resistance level would be around $1235. If Gold can surpass $1235 then look for a move up to $1260. There is very strong resistance above $1260 while $1180 should be strong support.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 01, 2018

Silver DSLV 3X Short ETF Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today DSLV 3 X short silver etf, is breaking out from a possible bearish falling wedge. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 150 shares at the market at 34.74 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the 50 day ema which is currently at 30.06. ZSL is a 2 X leveraged etf if you don’t want all the leverage. DSLV can be pretty volatile so take small bites. A backtest to the top rail would come into play around the 34.15 area for a slightly lower risk entry point.

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