Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you're a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months. Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct?
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Gold Price Just Needs More Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Bob_Loukas
The Gold market appears to be in reverse gear at present. It’s at fresh 6 week lows with a 2nd Daily Cycle that continues to wind lower, and is showing nothing that’s at all positive. Gold is trading very lethargically, and is uninteresting from most perspectives.
Assets move higher or lower in direct relation to the sentiment of traders and investors. And sentiment swings like a pendulum, from bullish to bearish and then back again. Sentiment is the primary driver of demand, with greater buyer engagement – both in numbers and enthusiasm – required to drive prices higher. Unfortunately for Gold bulls, it appears that the sentiment pendulum has already peaked, and is heading back toward bearish lows. We see this clearly in the COT reports, with traders continuing to shift from net Long to net Short positions. The report’s actual survey data confirms that sentiment for the current Investor Cycle has topped, and is now in decline.
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Monday, February 23, 2015
Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
The reaction back by gold over the past month was preceded by an explosion in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions. On gold's 6-month chart we can see that this reaction has been quite deep, and that it has taken the price back down below the neckline of a potential Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern, where it should have found support and turned up again. The fact that it didn't is a negative development, that opens up the risk of a retreat back to the vicinity of the lows, although as it is short-term oversold here and on a support level, it could bounce first, then head lower. Moving averages are in a potentially strongly bearish configuration on a medium-term basis, as the 50-day is rolling over beneath a still falling 200-day.
Monday, February 23, 2015
Silver Price Depressing Downtrend Will Eventually End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Following the recent explosion in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions in silver, followed by a breakdown below the neckline of a potential Head-and-Shoulders bottom, the outlook for silver is bearish, with the metal stuck in a stubborn downtrend.
On its 6-month chart we can see how its advance early in the year hit a wall at its falling 200-day moving average, when Commercial short positions exploded, as we noted at the time on the site, and it has since reacted back, and with it failing to stabilize at the support at the neckline of the potential Head-and-Shoulders bottom, the medium-term outlook is bleak, which will not be changed by any bounces occasioned by the fact that it is now short-term oversold.
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Monday, February 23, 2015
Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Rambus_Chartology
I would like to start this Weekend Report by looking at the HUI:SPX ratio chart I posted late Friday night that shows a time objective out to October of this year. If both the time and price elements play out according to this ratio chart then the HUI should be close to a major bottom making a round trip from bull market to bear market and back to a bull market again against the SPX. There doesn't have to be a V bottom as good bottoms take time to build out.
Monday, February 23, 2015
Soybean Commodity Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Austin_Galt
Soybeans or soya beans to some. Most people probably associate them with soy milk and soy sauce. Mmm. I feel like some Chinese food already! These are just two examples of its many uses.Let’s take a top down approach to the analysis beginning with the big picture yearly chart.
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Monday, February 23, 2015
Gold Weekly COTs and More / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Fading Greece concerns were a tough headwind for the yellow metal this week and it certainly had a negative impact on the intermediate-term chart.
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Copper Commodity Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Copper
By: Austin_Galt
Copper got a bit of press attention recently with headlines of a plunge in price. This was in early January and I hadn't looked at the copper chart for a few days and I was gobsmacked when I did. A plunge they say?! What a load of baloney!! If that was a plunge then they are in for a big shock later this year if my analysis is correct.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's start with the small picture and then come back to the big picture which will reveal the likely shock in store.
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Sunday, February 22, 2015
U.S. Dollar and Investing in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Richard_Mills
Duck Quacks and Golden Echoes - The US Dollar, on a slippery slope for years, has reversed and broken out against every major currency and developing economy currency . A global wide quantitative easing (QE) is happening. Almost every central bank (Sweden's Riksbank became the 14th central bank to ease monetary policy in 2014) is now creating money as fast as they can potentially leading to a global liquidity storm.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Gold And Silver – Banker’s Grip On Precious Metals Not Over! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
To leave the EU or not to leave the EU, that is the question? Pick any hour, and you will
have an answer that is good until the next hour passes. While there have been cheers and
encouragement for what the newly elected Syriza party has been telling the EU, that no
more debt enslavement will work for Greek citizens, it could very well turn out that
Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis are
waiting for the best deal for themselves before ensuring that Greek citizens remain so
enslaved. It is extremely difficult to fight the elite’s system and win.
Friday, February 20, 2015
Gold Bides Time – Massive Complacency Regarding Ukraine, Greece and Debt Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
* Greek Bank Runs Accelerate as Possible ‘Grexit’ Looms
* Fatigue with Greek Crisis Breeding Massive Complacency
* Government in Kiev Forced to Take Diplomatic Approach
* Ukraine a Significant Setback for NATO
* Regional War in Eastern Europe Averted for the Moment
* Middle East, Israel and Iran Timebomb Ticking
* India Demand To Rise To 35 – 40 Tonnes This Month
* Gold Oversold – Fundamental and Technical Position Good
Friday, February 20, 2015
Gold Price & Gold Stocks Near Term Prognosis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Precious Metals have had an interesting week. Both Silver and the gold stocks rebounded off their 50-day moving averages only to do a 180 the following day. Meanwhile Gold has given back most of its January gains. In this missive we consider the near term outlook for Gold and the gold stocks.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Cotton Commodity Price Forecast To Rise / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Austin_Galt
The cotton price has experienced a shellacking over recent years so is there any relief in sight for cotton growers going forward? Let’s find out taking a top down approach to the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Gold Bars Worth Over £350,000 Robbed From Pensioner By Fake Cops / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
- Story of pensioner in Paris who has had €450k of gold stolen by fake police highlights risks of storing gold in home
- Criminals impersonating cops gained access to home claiming to be investigating gold robbery
- 13 kilogram bars worth €450,000 taken, pensioner unharmed
- Gold owners must take precautions
- Greek depositors taking precautions by taking cash out of banks
Thursday, February 19, 2015
What This "Ice Level" Means to Future Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
D.R. Barton writes: You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.
Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here.
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
Why Crude Oil Prices Must Go Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil.
While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Ed Crooks over at the FT persuasively summarizes the predicament. Crooks says that 2014 is shaping up to be the worst year in the last six decades in terms of new oil discoveries (based on preliminary data).
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open weakened by concerns over the situation in Ukraine and Greece, the commodity rebounded as weaker U.S. dollar supported the price. As a result, light crude gained 1.08% and climbed above an important resistance, but is it as bullish as it seems at the first sight?
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
How Gold Investors Can Take Advantage of a Rising Happiness Index / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
The bottom is in, says Gwen Preston, founder of the Resource Maven, but the next bull market in gold hasn't yet arrived. In this interview with the The Gold Report, she argues that investors should concentrate on finding likely takeover targets and explains that these companies are often distinguished by strong investor and institutional backing. She identifies four such companies, as well as highlighting two exciting explorers and the one gold major best positioned for a robust recovery.
The Gold Report: You have doubled down on your declaration that "Nov. 5 was the bottom for gold and gold equities." What makes you so certain?
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Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Gold Price $250 Forecast - Dear Harry Dent: Wanna Bet? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jeff_Clark
Some of you may be aware that investment guru Harry Dent has publicly stated that gold will fall to $250-$400. He specifically predicted:
Around $700/ounce is a certainty in gold by 2015 to 2016, and $250 is a possibility well down the line by 2020–2023.
His forecast is largely based on his belief that deflation will prevail.
Governments are fighting deflation. If government stimulus fails, we will have deflation, not inflation.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Silver and Gold: Why Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Examine the graph of the silver to gold ratio over the past 25 years.