Monday, October 24, 2016

Large Sell-off in Stock Market Looming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

About every 20 weeks or so there is usually a noticeable sell-off in the stock market. We had the October 15, 2014 low followed 20 weeks later, in mid March, 2015 by a low, which was followed in late August (the 24th) by that low. Then roughly 5 months later on January 20, 2016 by a low, then June 27th and now November 2016. The March 2015 low was a shallow, skipping low as was June 27, 2016 (the Brexit low).

November 2016 also represents the 8-year cycle low due from November 21, 2008. Wednesday next week is exactly 40 weeks from the January 2016 low, so it is due. The 20 week lows are subdivided by 5 and 10 week lows last seen 8/2/16(five), 9/12/16(ten) and 10/13/16(five). The ideal 10/20/40 week low is due Nov 21, 2016 one week.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Ungovernability / Politics / Social Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Over the summer I introduced a two-fold assertion: 1) global economic growth is over (and has been for years and won’t come back for many more years) and 2) the end of growth marks the end of all centralization, including globalization. You can read all about these themes in “Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not” and “Why There is Trump” There are also extensive quotes of the second essay in wicked former UK MI6 spymaster Alastair Crooke’s “‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent”.

When I say ‘the end of growth’, I don’t mean that in a Limits to Growth kind of way, or peak oil or things like that. Not because I seek to invalidate such things, but because I mean economics, finance only. Our economies simply ceased growing, and quite a few years ago. The only reason that is not, and very widely, recognized is the $21 trillion and change that central banks have conjured up ostensibly to kickstart a recovery that always remains just around the corner.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Stock Market Boredom Before The Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Establishment Mainstream Media Elite Buys US Election for Hillary Clinton, Time Running Out for Trump / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The relentless mainstream establishment press's hammering of Donald Trump on an near hourly basis whilst at the same time make light or being completelty deaf, dumb and blind to Hillary Clinton's alleged criminal activities as are being exposed by the likes of WikiLeaks on a near daily basis that are just NOT being reported on by the mainstream press, continues to prevent any signs of a Donald Trump recovery, either in the opinion polls or the book maker odds markets that point to Trumps campaign being literally on life support, and with time fast running out for the long climb back towards any chance of Trump winning this election that clearly has been bought and paid for by the Washington establishment elite, which illustrates that in reality the US IS a ONE PARTY STATE. Democrat or Republican are flip sides of the SAME coin which is why NOTHING EVER CHANGES! Remember Obama and his message of CHANGE ? What changed? NOTHING! Because the same elite bankroll both parties and their candidates!

Sunday, October 23, 2016

US Presidential Election Lies and Voter Rigging / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

Donald Trump, losing to Hillary Clinton in every major national poll, long ago brilliantly figured out how to continue to rally his base. Instead of dealing with issues, he attacks Clinton, the mass media, and calls the election rigged.

The campaign rhetoric has been one not of issues but of personalities. Hillary Clinton calls Trump unfit to be president, so Trump retaliates by accusing her of being unfit. Most of their television ads are attack ads. In personal appearances, their speeches focus upon what’s wrong with the other candidate not what their own presidency will be about. The last time a presidential race was this vicious may have been in 1800 when Thomas Jefferson was challenging President John Adams.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Inflation About To Explode Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“Those who are capable of tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” ― Lysander Spooner

We all know the BLS artificially suppresses the CPI through bullshit substitution adjustments, quality adjustments, and various other incomprehensible hedonic adjustments made by government apparatchiks at the behest of their politician bosses. Some obscure theoretical academic  calculation called owners equivalent rent accounts for almost a quarter of the CPI weighting.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Still waiting for SPX uptrend to kick off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another choppy week. The week started at SPX 2133. After a decline on Monday to SPX 2124 the market rallied to 2148 by Wednesday. Then monthly options expiration kicked in and the market declined to SPX 2130 by Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Economic reports were mixed. On the downtick: the NY FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, the WLEI, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims were higher. On the uptick: industrial production, the CPI, building permits, existing home sales, the Philly FED, and the Q3 GDP est. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, durable goods orders and more housing reports. Best to your week!

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks have stabilized after forming a short-term low and even held up well while the US$ index pushed to an 8-month high. Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, Gold and gold stocks would be vulnerable to further losses. However, many astute analysts and traders believe that Gold and the US$ index can rise together and we note that the trend in the US$ index while important, is not the primary driver of Gold. Ultimately, as long as Gold’s fundamental driver, declining or negative real rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We have written little on the topic of energy lately, other than related to oil prices going up and down, empty OPEC ‘promises’ to cut oil production, and the incredible debt load threatening to crush US -and Canadian- unconventional oil and gas. It’s a logical outcome of focusing more on finance than energy, because we feel the former has a shorter timeline than the latter. Something that harks back to our Oil Drum days.

But that doesn’t mean that the idea and/or principle of peak oil has disappeared, or that we have completely forgotten it. It has just been snowed under by the financial crisis (and by unconventinal oil and gas). And while we continue to find that the financial world will dump us into a bigger crisis sooner than energy will, it’s useful to look at oil et al from time to time.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

The one factor that gold bulls have had going in their favor during the recent selloff that occurred in gold and the gold mining shares in this month of October, has been the stellar performance of the reported holdings in the gigantic gold ETF, GLD. It has held rock steady in spite of the carnage witnessed, especially in the mining shares, even as the US Dollar has turned strongly bullish on the technical price charts. It has been a point of solace among the bulls to be able to see the resolve of some of their large sponsors holding firm in GLD.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Stock Market Investment Success Through the “Investment Rule of 72” / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Christopher_Quigley

The issue of successful stock market investment affects us all. Even if we are not directly engaged in the industry, all of us will need some form of pension to fund our retirement. Whether we like it or not most of our retirement funds will find their way into the financial markets. For this very reason, the issue of pensions has moved politically centre stage; in particular the investment strategies used to administer pension funds. Due to mismanagement, mainly over the last decade, many retirement portfolios have become under-funded at best, or, at worst, totally bust. This situation is a direct result of the managed funds having been speculated rather than invested. Many cynics will say that the whole investment environment today has more of the characteristics of a casino than of a professional market of equities and, therefore, they doubt that one can ever achieve a faithful and fair return on capital. However, this view is erroneous. This essay sets out to explain how to achieve superior pension investment returns through a simple yet powerful investment rule: “the rule of 72. This rule is based on investment and not speculation yet if you faithfully apply it your returns, over time, will be spectacular. Many believe that such degree of return is only possible through “speculative activity”. They are wrong and I will explain.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The big decline in the precious metals appears to already be underway (even though we are in a short-term corrective upswing) and it seems that gold will move much lower in the coming months even though it’s likely to move higher in the coming days. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for mining stocks.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Gold Green Lights Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s early-October plunge on futures speculators’ stop losses being run has naturally left this metal mired in battered technicals and bearish sentiment.  But that sharp selloff has already accomplished its rebalancing mission.  The excessive gold-futures trading positions that triggered that stop running have already reversed, and the investors fueling gold’s bull are starting to buy again.  Gold is green lighting its next upleg.

Gold’s price action in recent years has been overwhelmingly dominated by just two groups of traders.  Gold-futures speculators effectively control gold’s short-term behavior, as futures’ extreme inherent leverage gives their capital wildly-outsized influence.  And investors, specifically American stock investors buying and selling shares in the flagship GLD SPDR Gold Shares gold ETF, have commanded gold’s longer-term moves.

Friday, October 21, 2016

SPX Triangle has Broken Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX Premarket has breached yesterday’s low at 2133.44 this morning. The short-term direction is down and the next support point appears to be the Cycle Bottom and trendline at 2124.63. Free fall may begin below those supports.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Demand for US Mints Silver Eagles has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

As gold and silver step back slightly to sit and wait for US economic data to be released later today we bring you news of the US Mint Silver Eagle demand that has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ as reported by silverseek.com.

Last month it seemed some of the heat had come out of the US Mint Silver market when sales had failed to maintain the momentum seen in the first five months of the year when between 5.9m and 4 million coins had been sold each month.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

The central bankers are capable of achieving many extraordinary results but not all economic and financial problems can be solved by central bankers. Central Bankers for example have the power to solve liquidity issues, but it is impossible for them to solve solvency issues.  Central Bankers through Financial Repression can transfer risk , however they can't remove it from the system. Additionally, Central bankers may be able to delay a recession temporarily, but  they can't prevent the business cycle from running its natural course.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Quantitative Easing, Helicopter Money and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

To properly understand helicopter money and its potential effects for the gold market, it is necessary to analyze differences between it and quantitative easing. In some senses, both tools are similar as they support the government budget. Some analysts even call quantitative easing in ‘helicopter money in disguise’. However, there are a few important differences between these two monetary policies, as one can see in the table below.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Golden Opportunity for Frontier Asia / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies

By: Dylan_Waller

The concept of the “Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid” was introduced by CK Prahalad, and it describes business strategies used to profit from selling products to the poorest populations in the world.  This approach can also be applied to frontier market investing.  Frontier market investing often requires an asset-based approach (viewing opportunities presented from less developed populations/countries/industries, rather than focusing on the  challenges), as well as a futuristic view of growth trends.  Select frontier markets have the potential to economically be on par with other emerging markets in the next 20-30 years.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Preparing for Post-Election US Social Unrest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

By Stefan Gleason : The 2016 election year is bringing out the worst among some elements of society. From vandalism to physical assaults to large scale race riots to terrorist bombings and mall stabbings, social disorder has become a more prominent feature of life in a polarized America.

It’s easy (and politically convenient) for the establishment media to blame Donald Trump for inflaming the political divide. In reality, Trump supporters have far more often been the victims rather than the instigators of political violence.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Have You Taken These 4 Simple Steps to Improve Your Trading? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

4 Simple Steps to Improve Your Trading

Jeffrey Kennedy is a 20-plus year Elliott wave market veteran. In this new interview, he walks you through his 4-step process of how to find high-confidence, low-risk trade setups.

[Editor's note: The text version of this interview is below.]