Wednesday, May 13, 2020

High Degree of Risk in Overvalued Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Christopher_Quigley

The markets continue to remain overvalued, with a high degree of risk. A quick recovery is priced into every major index and if this should prove incorrect, expect a serious correction. I anticipate October will be crunch time.

If earnings guidance indicates continued recessionary conditions (negative GDP growth) and if results in the American Presidential election results are too close to call, I reckon there will be a swift re-pricing of all equity and bond assets. Either way, I suggest investors be ready and prepared, come the third quarter, for all eventualities.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.

The pressures on both sides are huge.

On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.

On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.

Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.

Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.

And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those ‘man who predicted a new market crash now predicts… (blah blah blah)’ headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

The Fed Now Owns All Markets / Politics / Market Manipulation

By: Michael_Pento

Since the Great Recession hit in 2008, central banks have been in the business of keeping insolvent governments from defaulting through the process of pegging borrowing costs near zero. These money printers are now in the practice of propping up corporations--even those of the junk and zombie variety--by ensuring their cost of funds bears absolutely zero relationship to the credit quality of the issuer. To be clear, central banks have been falsifying public and now private bond prices to historic and monumental degrees just as the intensity of issuances and insolvency deepens.

And now, the Fed is bailing out bankrupt consumers with helicopter money in the form of enhanced and extended unemployment, grants through the Payroll Protection Plan and direct UBI to consumers through the CARES Act Recovery Rebates clause. All together there has been about $2.8 trillion worth of deficit spending so far.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 / Personal_Finance / Gardening

By: Eliza_Walayat

Covid-19 may be continuing to rage in the UK but that's not stopping the plants coming alive. In this video 5 year old Eliza shows what our fruit trees look like in May 2020, and we have a lot of fruit trees growing in a relatively small spaces that includes various varieties of apple trees, Cherry, Kiwi's, Pears, Plums, Grapes and we even have Banana Trees growing!

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The recent volatility in most markets was really extreme, which means that it was easy to lose focus on the things that matter the most in case of the gold market. It was relatively easy to keep one’s focus as far as the fundamental outlook for gold is concerned – it’s quite obvious that the economies around the world are in deep trouble and that the various QEs and money-printing mechanisms are likely to be inflationary, which together is likely to result in stagflation – which gold loves.

On the other hand, it was easy to lose focus with regard to one of gold’s key short- and medium-term drivers – the USD Index. If the USD Index soars, then gold is likely to plunge in the short run, regardless of how favorable other fundamentals are.

Consequently, in today’s free article, we’ll discuss the situation in the USD Index, with emphasis on two key similarities.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday’s key data point were the non-farm payrolls. Horrendous and coming in at minus 20,500K, they surprised on the upside. After their release, stocks continued adding to their overnight gains, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our previous bullish points turned out correct, but the key question is how strong is this rally? Can it power through this key resistance that is reinforced by the early March bearish gap?

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

“At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I’ve been writing articles about the Fourth Turning for over a decade and nothing has happened since its tumultuous onset in 2008, with the global financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve and their Wall Street co-conspirator owners, that has not followed along the path described by Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book – The Fourth Turning.

Like molten lava bursting forth from a long dormant (80 years) volcano, the core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to flow along channels of distress, long ago built by bad decisions, corrupt politicians and the greed of bankers. The molten ingredients of this Crisis have been the central drivers since 2008 and this second major eruption is flowing along the same route. The core elements are debt, civic decay, and global disorder, just as Strauss & Howe anticipated over two decades ago.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

What it cannot do is cure the virus.  What it could do, however, according to a good many analysts, is act as an effective hedge against its economic consequences. Since the beginning of the year through April, the metal was up 11.73% during probably the worst period in economic history since the 1930s Great Depression. Below we chronicle what top experts have to say about gold in the year of the pandemic – its portfolio role, its qualities as a disaster hedge, and its price potential.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Hi Ho Silver : Away! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to focus in on silver which remains one of the best bargains in the PM complex right now. When I first became acquainted with the PM complex back in early 2002 I learned quickly that just because gold may have had a good rally sometimes the PM stocks move very little which was confusing to me as I thought they should move in tandem. Then there were other times when the PM stocks would rally and gold didn’t move that much. It didn’t make a lot of sense at the time, but markets can be fickle like that.

Another thing I noticed back then was that silver was very weak and wouldn’t respond at all if the PM stock and gold were in rally mode. That has stuck with me all these years. Currently with the PM complex bottoming on March 23 we are seeing a similar scenario playing out where gold and the PM stocks are having a decent rally but silver is still lagging very badly. The thing about silver is that once it’s ready to move the rallies and declines for that matter, can be breathtaking. When the PM complex ended their bull market in 2011 silver was the first one to complete its bull market in April of 2011 while gold and the PM stock indexes didn’t complete their bull market until September a full 5 months later.

Monday, May 11, 2020

The Great Stock Market Disconnect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market

Intermediate trend – re-testing April high

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, May 11, 2020

The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

For many years now, metals traders and enthusiasts have been patiently waiting for the move in Silver that we feel its eventually going to happen. 

There is almost a ritual process in the metals market that takes place when a crisis happens.  We’ve written about this in a past article and we’ve highlighted how we believe Silver is one of the absolute best opportunities if/once it breaks out.  It goes something like this…

A.  Silver is often an overlooked “little cousin” to other precious metals like Gold and Platinum.  Many traders would rather trade/acquire Gold vs. Silver.

B.  When a crisis begins to happen, both Gold and Silver tend to collapse an initially as the shock to the markets translates into sales of precious metals to improve cash/margin requirements.

C.  As the crisis continues to unfold, Gold will typically begin a sustained upside price move over many months where Silver may move very little to the upside.  This creates a massive peak in the Gold to Silver ratio.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Frank_Holmes

While the broader markets have seen sharp declines, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, homes in on gold, gold stocks and bitcoin, and gives his prognosis for the airlines.

Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?

Frank Holmes: There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.

Monday, May 11, 2020

We Are On The Verge of the Entire World Becoming Like East Germany / Politics / Pandemic

By: Jeff_Berwick

Only You Can Stop It

East Berlin citizens woke up on 13 August 1961 to more than 30 miles of barbed wire barrier through the heart of Berlin. Overnight they were forbidden to pass into West Berlin, and the number of checkpoints in which Westerners could cross the border was drastically reduced. And when it became clear that there would be no major action to protest the closing, the tyranny of East German authorities became silently ratified.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley / Politics / Pandemic

By: Submissions

Aldous Huxley: Did I not make sufficiently clear what I think about principled optimists and ideological perfectionism when I wrote a masterpiece of world literature on the subject? Don’t believe that a man of the mind ever takes leave of thinking and simply retires. Instead I’m anxiously following what you’re doing down there – and certainly that gives me no rest. Coronavirus is only one among many threatening forebodings. Homo sapiens insapientissimus seems to do everything in his power in order to put himself on the red list of species without a future. And you don’t even know what you are doing! *0*

Steven Pinker: Here you go, I don’t talk to the dead; you’ve had your time, now the living are calling the shots. What you delivered in your great masterpiece was after all nothing but poetry, that is to say nothing but fantasy. But I can prove – figures at hand – that almost everything is much better today than it has ever been in the past. People live longer, they kill themselves less, they eat better, they have fewer illnesses than ever before – even though their numbers have increased sevenfold during the last two hundred years. *1* What better proof is there to reduce all your objections to absurdity – together with those of all other naysayers and prophets of doom, both living and dead?

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis is the final part in my following series of analysis -

• Rabbits in the Headlights
• Paving the Way for War with China 
• The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
• Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
• UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
• US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
• Stock Market Implications and Forecast

The whole of which was first made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?

Sunday, May 10, 2020

US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many months ago, our research team suggested any future collapse in the global markets would likely prompt a global capital shift in how capital identifies and is deployed for ROI.  We’ve continued to suggest that the more mature, global economies will become beneficiaries of any massive global collapse event and that capital will actively seek out security and safety while attempt to attain moderate returns.  We suggest reading this past research post on global central banks moves to keep the party rolling.

In 2019, we predicted a major Super-Cycle event would take place on or near August 19, 2019.  We believed this event would prompt a major downside price rotation that would prompt a shift in how capital is deployed throughout the world’s financial markets.  At that time, and still, we believe a long-term price cycle event is taking place which will prompt a deeper price bottom event that will likely complete near August or September 2020.  This raises an interesting setup related to Technical Analysis for skilled traders…

Sunday, May 10, 2020

US ­Rates Eye Negative Territory as Capital Prepares for Slow Death / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets appear to be gearing up for another leg higher. On Thursday, the metals complex rose sharply across the board. Gold gained about 2.5% while silver packed on nearly 4%.

Both of the monetary metals showed signs of breaking out of the sideways trading ranges they’ve been stuck in over the past four weeks. Silver closed solidly above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February.

Bulls will be looking for confirmation with strong weekly closes today and then follow-through early next week.

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

In case you just landed on Earth via Martian spaceship, 2020 has seen the biggest crash in oil prices ever.

This chart captures crude's three-month, 80%-plus nosedive to 3-decade lows. (Price data as of May 1, 2020 and does not reflect the unprecedented April 20 plunge into negative territory at -$40.32. Yes, minus $40.32).

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

$2,000, $5,000 or even the Jim Rickard’s $50,000 as the next target for gold. How realistic are these figures – could we see the yellow metal at $5,000 or even higher amid the coronavirus crisis? We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out how high gold prices can go in this downturn.

The first quarter of 2020 was clearly positive for the gold market, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal gained 6.2 percent from December 30, 2019 to March 31, 2020, moving from $1,515 to $1,609. In April, the bullion went up even further to $1,693, increasing gains to 11.7 percent in 2020 (as of April 17).