Monday, June 22, 2020

Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: readtheticker

where-is-the-us-dollar-trend-headedJesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.

A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.

The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.

The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.

Monday, June 22, 2020

It’s Time for Private Cryptocurrency Boards / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Steve_H_Hanke

With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, currencies around the world took a deep dive. To name but a few casualties: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Iran, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Not only have the currencies in these countries plunged, but the burden of their foreign debts has soared. Exchange-rate instability is a curse.

Indeed, currency instability, banking crises, soaring inflation, sovereign-debt defaults, and economic booms and busts all have a common source: exchange-rate instability. The ills induced by exchange-rate instability bring with them calls for policy changes. Karl Schiller, the German Finance Minister from 1966 until 1972, understood this simple fact. Schiller’s mantra was clear and uncompromising: “Stability is not everything, but without stability, everything is nothing.” Well, Schiller’s mantra is my mantra.

Monday, June 22, 2020

Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? / Politics / Shopping

By: N_Walayat

Eliza's first shop in 3 months at Tesco, weekly grocery shop. Eliza may be 5 but she knows what the arrows are for, it's simple FOLLOW THE ARROWS! Though most shoppers don't! Perhaps people have got bored with following the rules so choose to ignore. Though one should not make the mistake of pointing out the arrows to others, as it's not likely to work.

However, there appears to be a new manifestation of racism, coughing at asian people as they walk past! It happened TWICE to me on this one shop! Two middle aged men this time, stand and wait for us to walk past them, then cough, cough!

Has happened before but frequency appears to be increasingly, definetly going to attempt to video such occrences with a body cam of sorts.

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Why Investors Should Buy AI Tech Stocks on Stock Market Dips / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is finally showing signs of heading for a significant correction after bull run that has seen AI sector stocks retrace virtually all of their corona crash, with the Dow closing sharply lower Thursday to 25,128 that looks like targeting a trend to 23,000, so apt timing for this my latest analysis that seeks to answer why the number one priority for investors should be to accumulate into AI mega-trend stocks, and why one should embrace plunges in the stock market as buying opportunities. Though the tendency to wait for corrections before climbing onboard the AI mega-trend could result in fundamental errors that investors could come to regret for decades to come which is the primary focus of this article that seeks clear away the fog of future uncertainty to map out a trend for AI stocks and to a lesser extent the general stock market indices over the next 15 years!

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Sector Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold Stock Seasonal Average

The HUI Gold Bugs index has over the last 2 decades (encompassing both bull and bear markets) tended to bottom in July per stockcharts.com‘s data for the index. A seasonal average is not a directive, but it is a () guide to be factored. Last year gold stocks bottomed in May as we caught what would be a violent upswing. This year I expect the low to be in June or July.

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Futures Firepower Mounts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s powerful post-stock-panic upleg hasn’t enjoyed buying support from the gold-futures speculators.  These influential traders often drive and even dominate major gold-price trends.  But they’ve been subtly selling into gold’s sharp recent rally.  Their dogged skepticism is actually very bullish for gold in coming months.  Gold-futures speculators are amassing big gold-futures-buying firepower that will be unleashed.

The maelstrom of extreme fear spawned by mid-March’s stock panic even briefly sucked in gold.  It had surged to a 7.1-year secular high of $1675 during the initial weeks of that heavy stock-market selling.  But once that went panic-grade, which is major stock indexes plummeting 20%+ in 2 weeks or less, even gold was dumped in the frantic dash for cash.  Similar to prior panics, gold plunged 12.1% in just 8 trading days.

But that sharp emotional drop was wildly-unjustified fundamentally.  With stock markets burning and the Fed printing crazy-record sums of new money like there’s no tomorrow, gold should’ve been soaring.  So it rapidly V-bounced out of that anomalous stock-panic low, to blast much higher over the next couple months.  Between mid-March to late May, gold surged up 18.7% to a 7.5-year secular high near $1748.

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Intel Vs AMD Ryzen - Best CPU Buyers Guide June 2020 - (Gaming, Workstation, Overclocking, Budget) / Personal_Finance / Technology

By: HGR

What are the best processors in terms of value money in June 2020 based on Amazon prices for budget, mid, gaming, high and extreme end desktops after the release of Intels 10th Gen comet lake processors and AMD's leaked specs on it's Zen 2 3000 XT refresh. With the prime contenders for the high end being ther 10900k vs the 3950x.

Firstly it should be noted that Intel processors are in very short supply, very hard to get most of their processors. Whilst AMD's processors are in good supply.

Friday, June 19, 2020

AMAZON (AMZN) Tech Stock for Machine Learning Mega trend Investing / Companies / Amazon

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis will now seek to update potential buying levels for AI stocks during Q2 of where stocks could trade down to in terms of technical support levels during the anticipated general stock market correction of about 15% that should be imminent.

Top 5 AI Stocks are all primary, the ordering of which is arbitrary for instance of the 3 Google, Amazon and Microsoft it's a toss up of which comes first. For instance If I was compiling the list today then I would likely put Amazon at No1 ahead of Google. So keep in mind that the rankings are more in terms of primary, Secondary and Tertiary rather than their number order.

Friday, June 19, 2020

Fibonacci Price Modeling Suggests Massive Resistance Range In US Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The big selloff in the US markets last week (-1600 pts in the Dow Jones) on the comments from the US Fed aligns with previous Fibonacci Price Trigger levels throughout the early portion of 2020 to create a massive Support/Resistance range in the markets according to our research team.  It is very likely that the big selloff bar from last week will also establish a minor Support/Resistance range within the price range of that big selloff bar.

One of the key technical components of our Fibonacci Price Modeling system is that it acts as a trend following system, projects key target and reversal levels, and also highlights key trigger levels as price rotates up and down in different time frames.  The benefit we derive from this modeling system is that we can interpret the data into various forms of key technical factors for our friends, followers, and members.

Friday, June 19, 2020

“AI Healthcare” Stocks Will Mint the World’s First Trillionaire / Companies / Healthcare Sector

By: John_Mauldin

You won’t read about these stocks in the mainstream media. The average investor doesn’t even know they exist. But don’t let that fool you: because a small “hidden” group of companies is figuring out how to merge artificial intelligence with medical technology.

I call them “AI healthcare stocks.” In a minute, I’ll tell you why they’re hands down the #1 way to make big money in AI stocks. But first you must understand: not everyone’s excited about AI.

Some folks are even scared of it. They think AI could eventually try to wipe out the human race. They imagine human-like robots like Ava from the film Ex Machina or Skynet—the computer program that tried to wipe out the human race in the Terminator movies.

Friday, June 19, 2020

Worse than expected coronavirus contraction in ASEAN-4 Economies / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the coming months, success or failure to contain the global pandemic and overcome the coronavirus contraction has potential to make or break the promise of Southeast Asia in the early 21st century.

By the end of the 2nd quarter, the total number of confirmed cases may total close to 10 million, while deaths could surpass 225,000. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, due to the belated and inadequate mobilizations in the US and Europe.

In early year, the epicenter of the virus was in China and the rest of Asia. By March-April, it had moved to Europe and the United States. As I projected three months ago, global devastation would escalate by summer as the epicenter is shifting to emerging and particularly developing economies.

Friday, June 19, 2020

UK Schools Failure to Reopen Impacts Mental Health of Children Sat at Home Instead of in Classrooms / Politics / Educating Children

By: N_Walayat

Britain's schools are very badly failing children that will have consequences long after covid-19 becomes a paragraph in the history books as the continuing failure to open schools is resulting in untold damage being done to the educational and mental well being of many millions of children across Britain.

UK schools were supposed to open on the 15th of June 2020. Instead most if not ALL schools have only paid lip service towards school openings who have followed local city council dictats of self prophesied covid-19 experts, who it should not be forgotten closed schools about 3 weeks too late to start with thus contributing to the triggering of a huge wave of deaths well beyond the Governments upper estimate of 20,000. Who now with the deaths coming under control have swung in the other extreme direction by refusing to reopen schools.

So that there is no confusion, asking children to check their emails for assignments and online resources does NOT amount to reopening of schools!

Friday, June 19, 2020

What Are Stocks and What is Their Effect on the Economy? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

In layman’s terms, a stock is a tool for making wealth. A stock is a form of investment where  you buy a share or a part of the company issuing the stock.

Stocks make it possible for ordinary people to invest in successful companies. Alternatively, companies use stocks to raise capital to support growth and new product development.

Getting started in stock trading is a challenge for investors in the budding stage of their investment journey. Fortunately, Admiral Markets has adequate information and a forex demo to guide you.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

New Data Shows Shopify Was a Godsend for Mom and Pop During Coronavirus / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Stephen_McBride

68-year-old Jan Buerge was days away from losing everything. For 35 years, she has run World’s Window in Kansas City, a store that sells artisanal items from around the world. In March, she was forced to close her doors because of coronavirus.

But she didn’t give up. She just needed a plan, and fast. She snapped pictures of her remaining items. And quickly got them online with the help of her husband and nephew. Within three days, business was booming. Buerge was shipping baskets made from South African telephone wires and metal plaques made in Haiti to customers around the nation.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation remains low, while Powell signals dovish Fed for years. Good for gold.

The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.8 percent drop in April. The decrease was mainly driven by decreases in energy, transportation and apparel prices. The core CPI also declined 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in April. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, which happened for the first time in history of the index that starts in 1957. Anyway, compared with the previous month, we see some stabilization of disinflation forces, at least on a monthly basis.

On annual basis, the overall CPI increased just 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted and merely 0.1 percent without the seasonal adjustments), following 0.4 percent increase in April. It was the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core CPI rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 1.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the smallest increase since March 2011. Both indices are substantially lower than a few months ago. The chart below shows these disinflationary trends.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Stock Market Waterfall Selling in S&P 500 Is Over Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Just as I called for, there wasn't much S&P 500 downside left, and I am hugely profitable on the upside reversal from near yesterday's premarket lows. That's quite a turn in momentum, isn't it? So, is the correction in the last throws?

I would certainly say so in terms of prices, though it might take a little longer in terms of time. If I look though at the enthusiastic reaction to the Fed announcing late yesterday its purchases of individual corporate bonds on the secondary market, I doubt that the correction has much shelf life left.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Tech Stocks Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: EWI

No doubt, you've heard: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite just passed the 10-thousand mark for the first-time ever, even as the DJIA remains below its February high.

This infatuation with technology is nothing new.

Indeed, EWI's publications have long noted that the most important peaks of the past 200 years have been associated with periods of intense technological advance.

As far back as the 1835 peak, market participants were enamored with electricity, photography, blast furnaces for the mass production of iron and indoor plumbing. In 1929, investors placed their hopes on commercial air flight and radio. In 1966, futurists were envisioning colonies on the Moon. And, in the year 2000, the shares of internet companies were skyrocketing.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

XLF Financial Sector Stocks ETF May Break Below Price Gap / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team warned of a peak in the Financial Sector ETF on June 10, 2020, with this article.

It was important to understand the technical setup that existed at that time and what the Fibonacci Price Modeling system was showing then.  There was very clear support near $23 that was highlighted by the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and we were very clear in our future price predictions within that article…

“The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels.  We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days.  The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers. “

Thursday, June 18, 2020

REOPEN THE SCHOOLS! Kids Going Crazy in Lockdown Britain, Sheffield UK / Politics / Educating Children

By: N_Walayat

Depending on where you live and what year you are in some children are getting their first taste of school today. However still most are not being allowed the opportunity for any face to face contact. Pediatricians warn of huge amount of damage being done to children's life chances and mental health unless schools are immediately opened as many kids are literally going crazy sat locked down at home!

And apparently whilst it is okay for children to visit Primark many schools are refusing to let children back into school which gives the impression of teachers literally hiding under their desks fearful of the little monsters that they refuse to see let alone teach, instead barraging parents with junk mail asking them to do their jobs for them.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Stock Market S&P 500 ADL Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020.  This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction.  From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction.  This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.

Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/

In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels.  The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event.  It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.