Monday, July 06, 2020

The Corona Economic Depression Is Here / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

The US economy entered recession at the end of February, according to the economists who officially define such things. But will it get even worse?

In some ways, this is already beyond the 1930s Great Depression. Mass unemployment happened much faster this time and it looks like millions will be jobless for a long time.

We can identify recessions statistically, but “Depression” is fuzzier.

Geopolitics expert George Friedman noted recently that recessions are a cyclical financial process. They’re painful, but the economy recovers. A depression is more than an especially severe recession. It changes the existential reality of daily life. The financial, business, and job consequences are only the beginning.

Monday, July 06, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

 SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold just closed the month and quarter and its performance on the final day of both was very encouraging for the bulls. What’s going on and what changed?

Let’s start with the big picture.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Some gold bulls have bought in heavily to the argument that gold price suppression has been an ongoing activity for years, even decades. Supposedly, trading in the gold market is manipulated in ways that depress the market price for gold.

Assertions are made that the manipulation takes place in a shroud of secrecy; and the unexpected lower prices for gold, or prices that don’t meet wildly bullish expectations, are cited as evidence of conspiratorial activity.

The claim is made that the price of gold would be much higher if this manipulative trading activity were exposed, acknowledged, and prohibited. But…

Sunday, July 05, 2020

How to use Trendlines to Spot Reversals and Ride Trends / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Hi,

One reason we enjoy our partnership with the folks at Elliott Wave International is because they have a ton of useful content -- and they are glad to share it.

You may remember how back in April, in the middle of the shutdown, they gave you free access to their popular trading e-course, The Wave Principle Applied.

Now, they are doing it again.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

This is the first in a series of videos of what to expect when ordering a custom build PC from Overclockers UK (overclockers.co.uk), in terms of build quality and performance. The starting point for which is placing an order, which has not proved straight forward as key components have tended to come in and out of stock and thus it took us a good 2 weeks to actually place the order.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

Here is a good strategy to bond with your budgie early in the morning, Budgies want to stretch their wings, so create a routine where you take them out stretch, jump and run around on your arms and shoulder as they wake up and sing their morning songs to you before they take their first flight of the day.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Formulating a Trend Forecast

It is clear that Silver is NOT Gold, so NOT to make the mistake of looking at what Gold has done and thinking Silver will replicate that move, it rarely does! At best Silver tends to play catchup towards the end of precious metals bull trends.

Silver is in a strong bull trend off the March low that is targeting resistance at $19 and then $20, beyond which lies $21. The big question mark is can Silver break above resistance or not. Balance of evidence suggests Silver's going to correct before it is able to clear resistance.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts his expectations for how silver prices will respond to movement in the stock market.

Much of what is written in the parallel Gold Market update is equally applicable to silver and it will not be repeated here.

Although silver has picked up significantly since its March low it has greatly underperformed gold over the past two years. But this is normal during the earliest stages of a major sector bull market, when gold is favored over silver.

On its 20-year chart we can see that silver remains stuck within a giant base pattern that started to form as far back as 2013. This chart makes clear that once gold breaks out to new highs against the dollar, then silver should break out of this base to enter a dynamic advancing phase.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has broken out from a two-month-long consolidation (from $1680 to $1770), but the other precious metals markets have not confirmed Gold’s strength.

The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) remain below their May highs while Silver remains below significant, multi-year resistance around $18.75. Silver closed Monday at $18.06.

Furthermore, Gold, when priced against foreign currencies, has not broken out. This move has been driven mostly by dollar weakness.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We all fear the second wave of infections. But the U.S. hasn’t even controlled the first one! Bad news for Americans, but good news for gold.

Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the epidemiological situation in the United States does not look well. The number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has been rising again since mid-June, which means that coronavirus is far from being contained. Actually, the number of new cases has almost reached a new record level!

Friday, July 03, 2020

Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances.  Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques.  They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively.

Gaps are commonly used as targets for future price activity – where price attempts to “fill the gap”. In Technical Analysis theory, any gap that appears should eventually be “filled” by price in the future.  Thus, any open gap that does not fill is still considered an “open target range”.

Friday, July 03, 2020

How the Fed Gets Away With Ripping Off Ordinary Americans / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve has printed trillions of dollars without generating runaway price inflation through the use of a neat trick.

The privately owned bank cartel shovels the bulk of the money to Wall Street banks and not to the public at large. Instead of millions of Americans rushing out to bid up prices on consumer goods, a relative handful of bankers is using the free money to bid up asset prices and then pay themselves huge performance bonuses.

It’s quite the racket. Fed officials have been able to point at stock prices as “proof” of how they successfully engineered an economic recovery.

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing / Companies / Life Extension

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis will now seek to update potential buying levels for AI stocks during Q2 of where stocks could trade down to in terms of technical support levels during the anticipated general stock market correction of about 15% that should be imminent.

Top 5 AI Stocks are all primary, the ordering of which is arbitrary for instance of the 3 Google, Amazon and Microsoft it's a toss up of which comes first. For instance If I was compiling the list today then I would likely put Amazon at No1 ahead of Google. So keep in mind that the rankings are more in terms of primary, Secondary and Tertiary rather than their number order.

Thursday, July 02, 2020

All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

Thursday, July 02, 2020

The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's overnight gains evaporated faster than you could say Jack Robinson, and not much bottom fishing came later that day. Is the tide in stocks turning – or has it turned already? With Thursday's financial news-driven gains reversed in a flash, it's tempting to say so – especially when coupled with the other signs I see in the charts.

In short, more downside appears likely, confirming what I said in Friday's analysis. A quick quote: "Despite the generally positive S&P 500 performance during the runups to Independence Day, the new Fed rules might not have saved the day yet. Trading remains choppy, corona cases just made a new U.S. daily high, and the elections are getting closer."

Will the market agree?

Thursday, July 02, 2020

US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.” ― H.L. Mencken

After writing a particularly depressing article where I come to a logical conclusion, based upon the factual evidence of all previous Fourth Turnings, I always wonder whether I’m being too pessimistic and peddling doom, like many of the clickbait websites. The conclusions I reached at the end of my last two articles were particularly gloomy and made me wonder whether I was going too far. I thought maybe I was too pessimistic and my predictions of civil chaos and global disorder were overblown.

“A failure to meet the challenges ahead with bravery, grit, good judgement, adherence to our Constitutional principles, and a fair amount of luck, could lead to a defeat from which we will never recover. No one knows how and when the climax of this Crisis will play out, but the acceleration towards our rendezvous with destiny is in motion.” – Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Climax – May 10

It just so happened I published my last article on May 24, predicting a 2nd Civil War. I figured we might have a couple years to prepare, as there is likely five to ten years  before this Fourth Turning reaches a climax. Little did I know a black man with a long criminal background, high on fentanyl and resisting arrest in Minneapolis, would be killed by a white police thug named Derek Chauvin, who had seventeen complaints against him over his illustrious career, on the day after my article was posted. Oddly, it seems this murder will be our Fort Sumter/Pearl Harbor of this Fourth Turning.

Thursday, July 02, 2020

After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the IMF downgraded most growth projections, due to weaker private consumption and elevated uncertainty in investment. Those are the twin engines of the Philippine economy. So, what’s ahead for economic recovery?

As I wrote in a report 2 months ago (click here), the global economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund (April 2020) was too optimistic. Last week, the IMF downgraded most of its projections. Now global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, almost 2 percentage points below the previous forecast.

Consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, due to the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. Worse, investment is expected to remain subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid elevated uncertainty.

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.

We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher.  Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.

The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher.  This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90.  As gold creeps higher because of perceived risk factors in the global markets, once Gold price levels break above $1850, then the rally to levels above $1900 is almost certain to drive investors into the precious metals markets at a much faster pace.  Psychologically, once Gold rallies above $1850 with the US stock market trading near all-time highs – something has to break. The disconnect between Gold (risk protection) and the valuation of equities (the stock market) are not aligned.

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' / Politics / US Politics

By: Richard_Mills

In accepting the Democratic nomination for the presidency on July 2, 1932, President Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke of a “new deal for the American people” who had been ravaged by the Great Depression. 

After winning the 1932 election by a landslide, FDR, as he came to be known during World War II, took immediate action to bring about economic relief to the unemployed through public works programs, and to undertake reforms in industry, agriculture, finance, hydroelectric power, labor and housing. 

Roosevelt’s New Deal, which lasted from 1933-39, also vastly increased the scope of the federal government in the economy. 

Agencies such as the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps were established to provide short-term aid, as well as temporary jobs, employment on construction projects, and youth work in national forests.