Saturday, March 28, 2020

Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Dylan_Moran

Saturday, March 28, 2020

The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Raymond_Matison

For more than a decade financial markets had been in denial of economic reality – as long as the Federal Reserve continued supporting bubbles.  Numerous money managers and financial pundits cautioned investors in vain, as their warnings did not result in a market meltdown – until now. 

An economist of the last century, Hyman Minsky, had likened the economy and stock market to a mountainside which is slowly accumulating snow.  That snow appears stable until one last snowflake falls and it starts an avalanche.  In the last month we did not just get one financial snowflake, but a huge snowstorm in the form of the corona virus – and it, with the already overextended markets caused this real financial avalanche.

Saturday, March 28, 2020

UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.

Friday, March 27, 2020

DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Short-term Trend Analysis

The bubble that was the Dow's early year bull run has well and truly burst with the Dow literally crashing to a low of 24,700, and if it wasn't for the Coronavirus than the Dow would still have fallen to trade down to a low of about 27,500. Instead we have gone beyond that which technical analysis can determine, hence my continuing heavy focus on the Coronavirus trend which on the 27th of February concluded in expectations for the Dow to fairly quickly trade down to about 25,500 that it soon sliced through during it's multi day crash.

Friday, March 27, 2020

US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US AND France are on a similar trend trajectory of under testing, thus as I have been warning for a month now that the US has probably a huge pool of infected, circulating and doubling every 3 or 4 days. That I estimated 2 weeks ago to be about ten times the official number to total at least 4000. Where US current tally of 23,000 suggests that the actual number of infected could easily exceed 250,000, more than ten fold the recorded infected number due to the fact the US IS STILL NOT TESTING ENOUGH!

110,000 tests to date is a mere pinprick, the US should be testing that number EVERY DAY!

Friday, March 27, 2020

US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The much-anticipated upswing continuation came yesterday, and the bulls certainly fought hard to keep up the upside momentum. To what degree have they been successful with most of the intraday gains evaporating before the closing bell?

The intraday volatility is high and offers many opportunities to profit on both long and short positions. And that’s certainly what we did earlier this week, cashing in a 168-point gain on Friday-opened short position, and two more profitably closed positions (both were long trades) yesterday for an 82- and 52-point profit respectively. In total, that’s 302-point gain this week so far!

But going into the employment data later today, how does the technical outlook look like right now?

Friday, March 27, 2020

Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Monday, the Fed introduced QE-infinity. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

Fed Drops Bazooka… and Goes Nuclear Instead!

On Monday, the Fed pulled out an even larger bazooka than it did previously. Or, forget about the bazooka. The US central bank has gone nuclear! Indeed, the US central bank announced extensive new measures to support the economy. On March 15, the FOMC had announced it would purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and at least $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. On Monday, the Fed expanded its asset purchasing program by including purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in its agency mortgage-backed security purchases. In addition, the FOMC introduced unlimited quantitative easing. Yes, unlimited! The QE-infinity is back!

Friday, March 27, 2020

What you need to know about the impact of inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Submissions

When it comes to investment risks, one that investors seem to overlook is the risk that their money may not be able to grow enough to keep up with inflation. It can play a significant role in the protection of an investment and therefore, should be taken into account when evaluating the potential success of an investment.

Friday, March 27, 2020

The Government's Pandemic Strategy Is a Reckless One / Politics / Pandemic

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a surefire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression. Italy, for example, already had a 135 percent debt-to-GDP ratio before the crisis. It is hard to imagine how it will be able to borrow more without mutualizing its debt with the rest of the EU—something the northern European countries are still strongly opposed to. The European Central Bank is already printing money like crazy, and if Italy becomes another Greece, the ECB will make it ramp up the printing presses even more.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Planned-Demic 2020: War on Cash Goes Into Overdrive, New US Digital Currency in Coronavirus Bill / Politics / Pandemic

By: Jeff_Berwick

Another day, another coronavirus story.

The latest and biggest country after China to do a complete shutdown now is India.

Friday, March 27, 2020

CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.

Friday, March 27, 2020

NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

The Coronavirus Tsunami that is already starting to hit London will reach the city of Sheffield in about 5 days time, ahead of most other UK cities because Sheffield is already a Coronavirus hot spot!

The latest statistics show Sheffield has 240 Coronavirus cases, and if your not already aware that the NHS for some weeks has only been testing patients who turn up ill to hospital. Which translates into a likely pool of over 7000 infected people in Sheffield already. So how much capacity does Sheffield NHS hospitals have to deal with critically ill Coronavirus patients, requiring ventilators to keep them alive?

Friday, March 27, 2020

CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out.  We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time.  Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.

As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity.  If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: Submissions

Getting hurt in a car accident is the most unfortunate incident in anyone's life. You can be self-driving or in an Uber. No matter how many precautions you take, there is always someone on the road who drives carelessly. The accident becomes even more painful if you lose a loved one. The traumatic experience is hard to get over.

In case of all kinds of accidents, you should report to the police and claim from the insurance companies. 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession / Economics / Economic Depression

By: John_Mauldin

We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from Homebase.

A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the U.S. just in the 10 days ended Friday, March 20.

Is there anybody who thinks that’s not going to increase?

Thursday, March 26, 2020

US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system.  If you have not read PART I – Click Here

Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com). 

An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms.  Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? / Commodities / Gambling

By: Submissions

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.