Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Economics of Geopolitic - Why US Senate Targeted Philippines and Other Countries / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new Senate bill targeting the Philippines and some other countries – Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia - is fueled by controversial political and economic agendas that have caused turmoil since the 1980s.
For some time, US Senators Richard Durbin (Dem, Illinois) and Patrick Leahy (Dem, Vermont) had pushed for an amendment in the 2020 state and foreign operations appropriations bill by the US Senate appropriations committee. Essentially, the amendment would deny entry of Philippine government officials involved in the detention of Philippine opposition Senator Leila de Lima.
Last week, the US Senate panel approved the amendment. Durbin considers De Lima’s detention a “politically motivated imprisonment.” According to Philippine government, De Lima was arrested and detained in 2017 for allegedly asking money from drug convicts to fund her senatorial campaign and for allowing the drug trade to continue in the national penitentiary while she was the justice secretary. Despite evidence, she claims the cases against her are “politically motivated.”
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
A Guide to FX Trading By Artur Hochberg / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Travis_Bard
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Mike_McAra
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
- Ecclesiastes 1:9
History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
This Little-Known Class of Stocks Will Thrive as Rates Go Down and Volatility Up / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
An entire class of high-yield stocks just got a big boost.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced last Wednesday that the central bank will cut interest rates by 0.25%.
But we expected this. Investors had already priced in a 100% probability that the Fed would cut rates, according to global brokerage CME Group.
This is the second rate cut in the last three months. But it’s only the beginning.
As I’ll explain shortly, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates two more times this year.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Is Your Great Opportunity / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Did you know Queen Elizabeth ll has her own Youtube channel?Every year since 1957, she’d get on cable TV to address her nation.
But in 2007, the Queen did what no monarch had ever done. She set herself up on Youtube.
Cable TV is clearly dying. Even an 81-year-old monarch knew it back in 2007!
Those who saw this coming early on made fortunes...
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Will Stock Market S&P 2955 Break or Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Ricky_Wen
The fourth week of September played out as a downside range consolidation pattern as the bulls failed their immediate upside setup and bears tried to resurrect themselves. In hindsight, the week played out according to statistics since 1960 as the week after September OPEX remains the weakest week. The only problem with the week is that there was still no decisive winner as price kept flirting with the 2955 breakdown or hold-above pattern on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). Friday during RTH pierced below 2955 for a few minutes, but the price action was unwilling to close below it, so everything is still stuck in the overall range.
The main takeaway from the fourth week of September is that both sides are starting to get impatient now because it’s been two weeks of digestion versus the three weeks of August continuous upside grind. The only thing that matters now is whether this is just a simple backtest of August’s breakout 2930-2940 zone or bears finally can resurrect themselves with the 3020s double-top pattern.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Fed Has Admitted It Screwed Up… the Next Crisis is Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
That’s THREE strikes against the Fed.
The Fed cut rates again in September.
At this point, trying to keep track of the Fed’s reasoning for monetary policy is all but impossible. There is no logic or reason behind anything they do.
A year ago, the Fed told us that hiking rates four times a year while running $50 billion in Quantitative Tightening (QT) per month would have no effect on the economy or financial system.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market Part 2 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed has now begun to pave the way for a return to Quantitative Easing. The reason for this was the recent spike in borrowing rates in the Repo market. At his latest press, Chair Powell said this about the spike in the Effective Fed Funds and Repo rates:“Going forward, we’re going to be very closely monitoring market developments and assessing their implications for the appropriate level of reserves. And we’re going to be assessing the question of when it will be appropriate to resume the organic growth of our balance sheet… It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”
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Monday, September 30, 2019
If you Want to Get Really Rich, Invest like Google Not Warren Buffett / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Justin Spittler writes: "Follow the smart money."
We’ve all heard this saying.
It means if you want to make big money in the markets, do the following:
- Identify the smartest professional investors...
- buy the stocks they buy...
- and you’ll get rich too.
Just who are these genius investors who you can piggyback to riches?
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Stock Market Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Imperative Features to Look Out For On Writing Sites / Personal_Finance / Education
By: Travis_Bard
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.
Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
The Non-Nonsense Guide to Getting Started With Stocks / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Price Volatility Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends. The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move. Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility. The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities. Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Online Services That Have Made Life Easier / Personal_Finance / Internet
By: Travis_Bard
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