Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Even the President is Terrified of the Dreaded “D” Word Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Graham_Summers
The following tweet tells you everything you need to know about the state of the US financial system today…
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Having trouble making sense of the market? Do you feel like you are living in some sort of a parallel universe where almost everything happening in the market seems to be the opposite of what you have learned should happen? You are not alone so let’s try to make some sense of it. This weekend I will present two possible outcomes for the stock market and the rational behind them. We will also look at some out of favorite stocks in a bull market.
I see myself more of a market strategist than anything else. What I have learned after actively watching the ebb and flow of markets for almost 40 years is that the simplest approach is typically the best approach for us mere mortals. Sure we may be able to score a few short term trades here and there, but the amount of effort and focus it takes makes it unrealistic to make it ones primary investment approach. It takes an investment professional to consistently make money as a trader. Those of us who work for a living are best served trying to ride a bull market and not get too wrapped up in the day to day motion of the market. But to ride a bull one must know an awful lot of things, because it takes an independent critical thinker to buy a bottom and sell somewhere near the top after a market fully expresses itself to the upside. He must be able to divorce himself from the crowd and believe in himself. He must be able to be comfortable being alone from time to time. To me the most important thing is to understand where the market is in the greater scheme of things. I say this because it is my personal approach to investment to find and be in a bull market and to avoid bear markets at all costs. My observation is that those who listen to Wall Street’s advice to be in the market at all times is suicide. Bear markets destroy investors and they ruin ones ability to ride the next bull market upward due to the psychological damage they incur.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s relentless rally continues. The S&P 500 (excluding dividends) is just 1% from a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index (including dividends) is already at an all-time high. While the chart may “look like” a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, these patterns are only clear with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Too many potential head-and-shoulders patterns don’t work out in real-time (i.e. false bearish signals). And by the time you wait for a “bearish confirmation” break of the neckline, the S&P is already down -20%.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Three Rules for Making a Winning Investment in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The questions first-time precious metals buyers ask most often are "what should I buy?" and "how do I get started?" We have covered these questions many times over the years, but they are worth reconsidering from time to time.
The very first rule of precious metals investing is to avoid collectible coins and buy low-premium bullion (non-collectible) products instead. Well, to be precise, it is actually those many shady rare coin dealers one needs to avoid.
The dealers to avoid are usually the ones heavily marketing on TV and radio using celebrity spokesmen, looking for inexperienced buyers. They know what buttons to push. The ads talk a lot about real issues – concerns such as the massive federal debt and the potential for U.S. dollar depreciation to wipe out savings and wealth.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a big surprise. The dovish surprise. In March, Powell doubled down on its accommodative stance. Does he know something we are not aware of? We invite you to read our today’s article about the recent Fed’s U-turn and find out whether it will support the gold prices.
Three months can make a big difference! In December 2018, the Fed raised the federal funds rate and signaled another two hikes in 2019 and further one in 2020. Powell also reaffirmed that the Fed would continue to unwind its balance sheet, by up to $50 billion per month, and he sounded very hawkish. But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting at the end of January, he sounded much softer, announcing that the Fed would pause its interest rate hikes and end its balance sheet normalization this year. But in March, Powell doubled down on its dovish stance, signaling no hikes in 2019 and just one hike in 2020. The FOMC also announced that the quantitative tightening will end in September, after tapering its pace in May. What caused the Fed’s U-turn?
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Monday, April 15, 2019
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Foss
Something unusual happened in the stock market recently.
A few weeks ago, a closely watched indicator, called the “yield curve,” inverted for the first time since the last recession.
This is a concrete sign the economy is slowing.
In fact, the yield curve has inverted before every recession over the past 50 years… but not immediately before, as I’ll explain in a moment.
Good news is, the yield curve inversion also means stocks should continue to rise for the next 12–18 months or so.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday’s trading session was bullish, as stocks broke above their short-term consolidation following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index broke above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend extend despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.5-1.0% on Friday, breaking above the recent trading range, as investors’ sentiment improved following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Friday. It broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase. In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span. Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change. But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.
This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2722 is ready for a pause
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments and the wide variety of tourist souvenirs such as fridge magnets that can be picked up dirt cheap if you know where to look as we show in our latest video on shopping in Fethiye market.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
MINECRAFT at INSOMNIA 64 Games Festival / Personal_Finance / Gaming
By: Sami_Walayat
The Insomnia 64 gaming festival begins on the 19th of April 2019 at the Birmingham National Exhibition centre. Expect lots of hude displays of your favourite games such as for Fortnite and Minecraft, games which of course you can also sit down and play.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stocks Are Going to Stage a Truly VIOLENT Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
First and foremost, volume has slowed to a trickle. Two of the last four days saw trading volume at their absolute lowest since late September 2018: right before the last market meltdown started.
This is occurring right as the S&P 500 nears the completion of the bearish rising wedge formation that has been building since the December bottom.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects.Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed for a broad commitment focusing on China’s economic practices, including participation of U.S. firms in certain industries and protection of U.S. intellectual property rights (IPRs).
In a recent CNBC interview, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed that the countries had “pretty much agreed” on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal. After his meeting with the Chinese delegation last week, President Trump stated that negotiators may need four more weeks to package the deal.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Without too much attention from traders, the SPY and QQQ are racing to attempt to establish new all-time highs in what may become the most exciting Spring/Summer breakout rally of the past 3 years. While many other symbols are still flirting with November/December 2018 highs, the SPY and QQQ are both showing upside price gaps last week indicating a moderately strong price advancement is taking place. Additionally, both the SPY and the QQQ are already well above early 2018 peak levels.
If you were not paying attention, it sure looks like these two symbols are racing to be the first to break into “new all-time high levels” and shock the doomsayers (again) as we may see this rally continue for at least another 30 to 60 days.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Index Gann Angle Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
The Dow Jones has its own manner, some stocks are fast, some stocks are slow and some are in between. No matter the powers behind the scenes Gann Angles will help the chartist with the 'Dow Jones Manner Watch'!
These charts provided by NorthmanTrader clearly showing the puppet master behind the scenes
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me to update us on some of the best value propositions he sees in the markets. He also reveals why he’s very bullish on the metals right now and why he expects the next leg higher to happen in the blink of an eye. Don’t miss another wonderful conversation with the man the Mining Journal named America’s Best Fund Manager, Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets are struggling to gain ground as gold prices continue to oscillate around the $1,300 level. For a 7th straight week, gold traded into or out of $1,300 per ounce. Earlier in the week, gold climbed above that key level but got pulled back below it Thursday on heavy selling.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
Palladium, Darling of the PGEs, Shifting into High Gear / Commodities / Palladium
By: Richard_Mills
The platinum group elements (PGEs) consist of six metallic elements found in the Periodic Table: iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), palladium (Pd), platinum (Pt), rhodium (Rh) and ruthenium (Ru). Platinum and palladium are the most well-known of the PGEs due to their industrial applications in diesel and gasoline engines. The market for palladium has become especially interesting of late, with the price of the silvery-white metal gaining 18% in 2018, an otherwise down year for metals. Scaling an uncharted $1,600 per ounce in March, palladium is up 70% from a year ago.
We’ll get into the reasons for that in this article, and much more, as we dig deep into the world of PGEs.
Characteristics
PGEs share similar physical and chemical properties, and they usually occur together in the same orebodies. The similarities include a resistance to corrosion, high melting points, and catalytic qualities, meaning they speed up chemical reactions without themselves being chemically altered.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
MMT is a spectacularly Dem idea / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Economists are good for one thing, and that is creating theories. The trouble is, those theories are often wrong. This is why economics is often called “the dismal science”. Such is the case with the latest economic soup-de-jour, Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.
In this article we take a deep dive into MMT: What is it? Who’s behind it or against it, whether it could work, and what it would mean for gold.
What is MMT?
Modern Monetary Theory is a new way of approaching the US federal budget that is both unconventional and absurd. It posits that rather than obsessing about how large the debt has grown (over $2 trillion) and the ongoing annual deficits that fuel debt, we should focus on spending, specifically, how the government can target certain spending programs that will cause minimal inflation. Fiscal policy on steroids is, according to its proponents, to be the new engine of US growth and prosperity.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
The 'Silver Lines' of Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: EWI
How to turn a simple chart into a near-term road map
On February 20, Variety Magazine's "Film News Roundup" announced a new thriller coming to theaters near you: "The Silver Bear."
Funny enough, that same day, another kind of thriller was playing out in the theater of finance; its name, the Silver Bull!
The chart below captures the action: Since the start of 2019, silver prices had been on a tear, soaring to $14, $14.50, $15, $15.50 and then $16 per ounce in late February in a white-hot winning streak that has outperformed even gold.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
Gold Stocks Bull Market Breakout Potential / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has faded from interest in the past couple months, overshadowed by the monster stock-market rally. But gold has been consolidating high, quietly basing before its next challenge to major $1350 bull-market resistance. A decisive breakout above will really catch investors’ attention, greatly improving sentiment and driving major capital inflows. With gold-futures speculators not very long yet, plenty of buying power exists.
Last August gold was pummeled to a 19.3-month low near $1174 by extreme all-time-record short selling in gold futures. The speculators trading these derivatives command a wildly-disproportional influence on short-term gold price action, especially when investors aren’t buying. Gold-futures trading bullies gold’s price around considerably to majorly, which can really distort psychology surrounding the gold market.
The main reason is the incredible leverage inherent in gold futures. This week the maintenance margin required to trade a single 100-troy-ounce gold-futures contract is just $3400. That’s the minimum cash traders have to keep in their accounts. Yet at the recent $1300 gold price, each contract controls gold worth $130,000. So gold-futures speculators are legally allowed to run extreme leverage up to 38.2x!
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