Monday, April 01, 2019

Stock Market Is Stunned By The Bond Rally - But It Has Higher To Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

One of my members laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming." Were you one of the many who did not see this rally coming? The point my member was trying to make was that while we were preparing for this rally since October of 2018, it seems most of the market was surprised by the rally.

Before I address how we have handled the bond market in 2018 and 2019, let me take you back through the last 3 years within the bond market.

As the bond market rallied on for decades, one analyst after another attempted to “call the top.” Yet, the bond market continued higher and higher.

Monday, April 01, 2019

Stock Market Congestion Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!

Intermediate trend –  The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, March 31, 2019

UK Population Growth Trend Forecast and Housing Market Consequences / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Warning: Central Banks CANNOT Normalize Policy… Ever / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

As I have been warning for years, Central Banks CANNOT normalize the Everything Bubble they created between 2008 and 2016.

Yesterday, yet another major Central Bank confirmed that I was correct. In this particular case, it was the European Central Bank (ECB).

The ECB first cut interest rates to NEGATIVE in 2014. It then lowered them an additional three times to -0.4% in 2016.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Proprietary Cycles Predict July Stock Market Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Think of this research post as an early warning that June and July 2019 are likely to be a very critical price inflection point based on our proprietary price cycle analysis tools.  Back in October 2018, we predicted the downside price rotation almost perfectly going forward 4 to 5 months.  We predicted nearly every move that occurred in the US stock market all the way to and through the ultimate low that occurred on December 24, 2018.  You can read that post here.

Now, our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems are predicting a June/July 2019 cycle inflection date that will likely coincide with, possibly, new market highs as well as increased bullish price activity throughout the global stock markets until we get nearer to this date.  This June/July 2019 date becomes even more critical as we begin to understand our other predictive modeling systems are suggesting that precious metals will begin an upside price advance near late April or early May 2019.  When we combine this analysis and start to consider the broader conclusion, it leads us to believe the global stock markets could be poised for a bit of rotation after May or June of 2019 – possibly setting up a bigger price sell-off throughout the end of 2019.  Only time will tell.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

ADL Gold Price Predictions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we’ve been suggesting for months, expect continued moderate price weakness in Gold and Silver through most of April 2019 and possibly into early May 2019 before a strong price rally will setup and push Gold prices well above $1500 before the end of 2019.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system has been calling for this move for many months (see the chart below).  This advanced predictive price modeling system is suggesting that in May/June of 2019, we will likely see a bigger price rally unfold in Gold and Silver which may be paired with some type of geopolitical or global economic event.  See this article for more details.

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Stock Market Eerie Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It’s been a terrific Q1 for stocks and bonds. Yet as the stock market and bond market rallies continue, the bearish chorus among traders and financial professionals grows louder.

Friday, March 29, 2019

This Formula Will Help You Avoid Dividend Cutters Like Kraft Heinz / Companies / Dividends

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross

Think blue-chip dividend stocks are safe?

You better watch out. Buying iconic “tried-and-true” stocks might give you a false sense of security.

Take a look at Kraft Heinz.

The iconic brand lost 30% of its value in one day:

Friday, March 29, 2019

Gold Price Sharp C-Wave Drop? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Clive Maund sees some rough waters with gold and discusses how to play it. I have not been happy about the pattern that has been forming in gold since it plunged rather rudely and sharply around the end of February. The concern that was engendered by that plunge and the accompanying momentum breakdown, that we can see on gold's latest 8-month chart below, were allayed by its managing to stabilize above its parabolic uptrend line and then rise off it. However, the rally this month has been hesitant and unconvincing, and it is now becoming clearer that it may be a B-wave bear Flag to be followed by a C-wave breakdown through the parabolic uptrend support line that would lead to a sharp drop probably towards or to the support shown in the $1240 area, where it would stabilize before later reversing to the upside again. If this is the scenario that is set to unfold, it is likely to happen soon, as the bear Flag looks about complete.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg.  That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018.  Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold.  That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold.  The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most silver miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Behind in Retirement Savings? It’s Not Too Late to Catch Up / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Jared_Dillian

You’ve screwed up:

• You’re drowning in debt.

• You haven’t saved for retirement.

• You’ve chopped yourself to bits in the stock market.

“Too late now, I’m screwed.”

You are not screwed. The only way you are screwed is if you are at retirement age already. Then it is kind of too late.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Key Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We invite you to read our today’s article and find out what are key recession indicators – and their relationship with the price of gold.

Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We have already showed that NBER’s indicators do not signal upcoming economic problems yet. Neither the unemployment rate nor the yield curve.

Friday, March 29, 2019

UK INDEPENDENCE DAY CANCELLED! As Westminster SUBVERTS BREXIT! / Politics / BrExit

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For the past 2 years Prime Minister May and her cabinet have repeatedly uttered that the UK WILL LEAVE the EU on the 29th of March 2019 in accordance with the outcome of the June 2016 EU Referendum result that has now been SUBVERTED as Britain IS NOT leaving today, nor will it on the so called 1st extension of 12th April and nor again on the 22nd of May and likely be extended by a further 2 years with many EU conditions attached such as to hold a "Peoples Vote". Which has been my expectation for some time that the British establishment would SUBVERT BREXIT and PREVENT the UK from LEAVING the EU on the 29th of March as illustrated by my following video of 4 months ago.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months.  We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.

Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move.  On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Palladium, PALL/Gold Ratio, SPX and the Gold Sector / Commodities / Palladium

By: Gary_Tanashian

Okay, now I am getting geeked out. One of the most fun and rare times in what I do is when something big happens that I feel in my gut means something, but about which I am not able to come forth with a ready explanation of the meaning (without sounding like a know-it-all blowhard). It’s time to put the thinking cap on and to reference my wealth of experience (that’s another way of saying I am old) and try to figure out meanings going forward.

Reference the earlier post showing the impulsive drop in palladium and gold’s big bounce in relation.

Here is a chart of palladium at today’s close. Another down day and it will have put in the 20% drop that will get the pundits calling ‘bear market’. The volume spike is a kick-off, not a capitulation (obviously, since it only dropped two days ago). In the short-term it’s sure to bounce up and down, but it looks like an impulse just hit.

Friday, March 29, 2019

What “Coca-Cola Millionaires” Can Teach You About Stock Investing / Companies / Investing 2019

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : I bet you’ve never heard of Pat Munroe.

And unless you’re from the Florida Panhandle, I imagine you haven’t heard of Quincy, Florida, either.

But the two can teach us a lot about investing.

See, in the early 1920s, Munroe was a banker in Quincy.

One thing he noticed was no matter how hard the times, people always had money to buy a Coca-Cola.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Yield Curve Inverted Even More. Is It Finally Time for Buying Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. yield curve extended its inversion. Everyone and their brother knows that recession must definitely be on the horizon. We are all doomed, so gold can only go up now, right?

Yield Curve Inversion Gets Larger

It’s getting more serious. On Friday, the yield curve inverted. This week, the spread between long-term and short-term rates has not only remained below zero, but it has dived further into negative territory. As the chart below shows, the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries fell to -0.05 on Tuesday.

Friday, March 29, 2019

How to Make Money Efficiently in Your Spare Time / Personal_Finance / Money Making

By: Submissions

Most of us could do with just a little more money in order to feel comfortable and do all the things that we want to do. This assumes that you already have at least one wage coming in to your household and are able to pay your bills and put food on the table, but could do with just a little bit extra. Perhaps you're saving for a particular purpose or would just like some fun money. It also assumes that you have a certain amount of free time that you're prepared to dedicate to making that money.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

What US Economic Fundementals and Valuations Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FUNDAMENTALS

US Economy

The US economic fundamentals are good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 3.1%, up from +2,5% a year earlier. Whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices as the economy continues to chug along.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

The World's Largest Oil Company And Petrochemical Company Merge / Companies / Oil Companies

By: OilPrice_Com

The long awaited Saudi Aramco acquisition of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) is finally here.

With a statement to the press, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reported that Aramco has acquired a 70 percent stake in SABIC, with an estimated value of $69.1 billion. Aramco's CEO Nasser reiterated that the “deal is a major step in accelerating Saudi Aramco's transformative downstream growth strategy”.