Thursday, January 10, 2019
Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.
Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.
The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible road maps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing approach to Silver is one of buying when cheap to invest and forget, for it only tends to come alive towards the end of precious metals bull runs as illustrated the last time I took a look at Silver on the 8th of May 2018 -
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike!
In terms of a Silver market position then as is currently the case the silver market can usually be expected to be a dead market with the tendency to flat line not just for many months but even years as it tends to play second fiddle to Gold in terms of tradable swings, usually only really coming alive towards the latter stages of precious metal bull markets.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Warning: This Stock Market Rig is Going to End Terribly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This is getting old.
The PPT is now juicing Oil higher, because doing so relieves stress in the junk bond market (a large percentage of junk bond issuers are shale companies that require higher Oil prices to be profitable).
This, in turn, is sending a “all clear” signal to stocks, inducing algos to buy indiscriminately.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
How Waymo Will Destroy Uber / Companies / Self Driving Cars
By: Stephen_McBride
Google’s Waymo has officially launched the world’s first self-driving, ride-sharing service! Residents in four Phoenix suburbs can now ride around in its robo-taxis for a small fee.It’s one of the biggest disruptive forces in America.
In RiskHedge, I recently explained why self-driving cars are going to gut the auto industry like a fish. And Phoenix is only the first step in Waymo’s domination of American roads.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Are Changing Prices to San Francisco Starter Homes Enough? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Bubbles ultimately die of their own extremes, although it always helps to have a trigger like the subprime crisis in 2006.But the San Francisco area takes the cake when it come to the U.S. real-estate bubbles! (That Canadian honor goes to Vancouver and in Australia it’s Sydney and Melbourne.)
And prices have started to fall, albeit slowly, despite no slowdown in the economy and only modestly rising interest rates thus far.
Why?
Because of the insanity of home prices there! They’re massively overpriced, especially in the large and critical starter-home market.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 4th and final article in this series that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Good News for Land Rover as US Sales Soar to New Record, But Facing China Headwinds 2019 / Companies / Auto Sector
By: N_Walayat
Finally some good news for Jaguar Land Rover as it's US sales soared by 24% during December 2018 to a total of 14,080 cars, ending a great year for JLR in the US seeing sales surge to nearly 123,000, up from the 114,300 for 2017, with the US now accounting for approximately 28% of total sales.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
There Goes Tesla’s Tax Break / Companies / US Auto's
By: Rodney_Johnson
As I’ve written before, Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) has many problems, including quality control (it now ranks 27th out of 29 vehicle makes, according to Consumer Reports) and a quick burn rate.But one issue hit harder on New Year’s Day than all the others.
Because the car company reached the milestone of selling 200,000 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2018, the tax credit associated with buying a Tesla was cut in half on January 1, from $7,500 to $3,750, and will decline again before disappearing completely in early 2020.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
An Investment Lesson from Puerto Rico / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Rodney_Johnson
It takes two and a half hours to fly from Miami to San Juan, Puerto Rico, but the island might as well be on the other side of the planet.Even though it’s a U.S. territory and it’s a shorter flight from Miami to San Juan than to L.A. or even Washington, the place is the epitome of out-of-sight, out-of-mind.
When’s the last time you considered the tough conditions on the island?
Hurricane Maria flattened the place more than a year ago, and quickened the pace of migration from the island to Florida, leaving behind the vulnerable population.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Wall Street Drools over Fishy Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Economic Statistics
By: MoneyMetals
The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a blowout jobs report on Friday. Headline chasing algorithms and investors responded by snapping up stocks. They also sold some gold and silver futures, driving prices lower on the day.
To Wall Street cheerleaders, it looked like the stock market correction might be over and precious metals would be headed out of fashion, once again.
It looked like something else to anyone who read past the headlines. What a Potemkin Village the markets have become!
Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Did Strong December Payrolls Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
December payrolls were strong – but gold prices rose. What happened?
Job Creation Surprises Positively
U.S. nonfarm payrolls accelerated in December, beating expectations. The economy added 312,000 jobs last month, following a rise of 176,000 in November (after an upward revision) and significantly above 182,000 forecasted by the economists. The number was the biggest increase since February 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of job creation increased slightly last month to 1.8 percent.
What is important is that the gains were widespread, but the most impressive expansion occurred in education and health services (+82,000), leisure and hospitality (+55,000) and professional and business services (+43,000).
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Here’s Why Trump Could Soon Turn on Europe / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
2018’s Buenos Aires G20 summit was a chance for world leaders to forge common ground on important global issues.
That’s not exactly what happened. But President Trump’s trade discussion with Chinese president Xi Jinping looked initially like a bright spot.
They agreed to stop making things worse for a few months, at least. Markets were more skeptical after digesting the news. And rightly so.
Tuesday, January 08, 2019
How to Spot A Tradable Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you are a long-term investor, swing trader, or day trader, then you could find one or all of the charts below interesting. What I am going to briefly cover and show you could make you think twice about how you are investing and trading your money.
I will be the first to admit you should not, and cannot, always pick market tops or bottoms, but there are certain times when it’s worth betting on one.
Below I have shared three charts, each with a different time frame using daily, 30 minutes, and a 10-minute chart. Each chart also has a different technical analysis technique and strategy applied.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Why 90% of Traders Lose / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The failure rate for financial market and commodity traders has remained at a consistently high 90% for many decades, this despite all of the advances in information technology, flood of new learning materials that is churned out annually, therefore why is it that 90% of traders still end up losing?
In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact listening to those 90% of failed traders who proceeded them that went on to comprise what is trading markets sales industry, perpetually churning out a never ending stream of materials, methods and signal services of how to trade, that invariably don't pan out in reality.
Then there is the commentariat, again 90% of which comprises failed traders. Who may have tried to trade but failed so have gone on to become market reporters, mostly providing rear view mirror in hindsight market commentary, or so vague in outlook that all eventualities are covered as they hope to become the next big media stars, appearing on the likes of CNBC so as to turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards a similar fate.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Breadth is Very Strong While Stocks are Surging. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the S&P 500 makes a sharp upwards reversal towards its 38.2% fibonacci retracement, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is surging and risk-off assets (USD) are falling.
This combination of extremely strong breadth and a decline in risk-off assets often leads to short term weakness before a bigger medium term rally, but sometimes was a part of V-shaped recoveries. Moral of the story: focus on the medium term instead of the short term. Although V-shaped recoveries are unlikely, there are not impossible.
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Gold Hits Our $1300 Price Target – What Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018. The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated. Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.
Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally. Our next upside price target is near $1500. We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen. We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: EWI
Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.
For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it's actually the other way around--the market leads, and the Fed follows.
The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would "rescue" investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Market Predictions for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Bond Yields Continue to Fall in First Half of YearThe epoch bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy and markets. Wall Street Shills are fond of claiming that global bond yields remain at historically low levels due to central bank manipulations, but this argument is no longer tenable. It was once true, but QE on a net global basis has now gone negative. And the data shows the amount of U.S. publicly traded debt relative to GDP is much greater today than it was prior to the start of the Great Recession—even after adjusted for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet--in other words, taking into account all the debt the Fed has purchased and is still rolling over.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Half of Investment-Grade Bonds Are Just One Step from Junk Status / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Submissions
BY ROBERT ROSS :
The S&P fell 10%. It was its worst December since 1931.When the market drops, conventional investing wisdom says buy bonds. And this is what investors did.
Many have shifted money out of stocks into bonds. Much of that money has flowed into investment-grade corporate bonds.
These bonds are seen as some of the safest bonds investors can buy. The problem is that investment grade doesn’t mean what it used to.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Stocks Rallied Again, Still Just an Upward Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Friday following better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just a quick upward correction before another leg lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 3.3-4.3% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The S&P 500 index extended its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. It traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got back above 2,500 mark on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.3%.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,530-2,550, marked by some previous fluctuations. The resistance level is also at 2,570-2,600. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,500, and the next support level remains at 2,450-2,475, marked by some recent local lows.
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