Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Gold Major Reversal Imminent, Rare Opportunity to Buy at Ridiculously Low Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

We are very close to or at a major bottom in gold and silver now, regardless of the potential for another short term downleg. This is made plain by the charts we are going to look at in this update. COTs and sentiment are now at extraordinary extremes not seen in the entire history of this bullmarket. This means that when the turn really comes we are likely to see a scorching rally which will be driven by massive short covering that will leave most investors standing, mouths agape.

On its 6-month chart we can see gold starting to be pressured lower again by its falling 50-day moving average, after a feeble recovery rally. Although it looks set to continue lower short-term probably into the support approaching its April panic lows, for reasons that we will come to later there is considered to be a fair chance that these lows will hold, or that if the price does break to new lows, it won't be by much before it reverses to the upside after setting a bear trap. The position of the MACD indicator, which has largely neutralized following oversold extremes, certainly allows for further downside, but at the same time gold's overall oversold condition is shown by the large gap that has opened up between the price and its 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average quite far above.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Silver Price Cycles, Forcasting the Next Tops and Bottoms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Silver prices peaked in April 2011 and dropped about 60% over the next 25 months. Sentiment by almost any measure is currently terrible. Few are interested in silver; most have lost money (on paper) if they bought in the last two and one half years, and the emotional pain seems considerable. It reminds me of the years after the NASDAQ crash in 2000.

So will silver drop under $15 or rally back above $50?

Monday, June 10, 2013

Gold and Silver Rally Seen "Over" as US Fed Tapering Talk Hits Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The GOLD PRICE rallied from a 1-week low at $1376 per ounce Monday morning in London, edging back up to $1383 as world stock markets rose.

Silver fell within 20¢ of mid-May's 30-month low, before rallying to $21.80 per ounce.

Commodity prices fell after weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial data. US Treasury bonds also slipped in price once again, nudging interest rates on 10-year debt up to 2.17%.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Royal Mint Gold Coins Demand Surge Continuing After Trebling In April / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,376.75, EUR 1,041.89 and GBP 887.37 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,410.00, EUR 1,065.12 and GBP 905.53 per ounce.

Gold fell $33.30 or 2.36% on Friday to $1,378.70/oz and silver slid to a low of $21.56 and finished down 4.89%. Gold was down 0.45% and silver fell 2.75% last week.

Monday, June 10, 2013

A Huge Liquid Natural Gas LNG Energy Boom Has Begun / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Oh, the law of unintended consequences and the opportunities it brings.

Thanks to the new standard of Keynesian Abenomics, the Nikkei has blasted 47% higher since November. The Yen has lost about 25% against the U.S. dollar in the same time.

While we don't know what the future will hold for these trends, there's something else going on that will not fade quickly: The weak Yen has made imports to Japan a whole lot more expensive...including energy.

Sunday, June 09, 2013

Notes on ‘Gold Confiscation Possibility Warning’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Submissions

Mark Blair writes: in his essay ‘Gold Confiscation Possibility Warning,’ Jeff Thomas asks for opinions, a most refreshing change.

My thesis is, paradoxically, that Mr. Thomas could well be right about the INTENTION of the government to confiscate gold; but that the U.S. state lacks the power at this point to manage the process to completion. Here is my reasoning:

Sunday, June 09, 2013

Peak Oil - A Simple, Perfect Lie for Politicians / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Porter Stansberry writes: Peak Oil was a fantastic lie.

The idea was that our ability to discover and produce higher amounts of hydrocarbon-based energy had peaked and would be forever in decline. This "inevitable" decline in energy production would destroy the modern world, as all the luxuries and technologies that we enjoy today (such as cheap electricity and automobiles) rely on these fuels.

I believe historians will look back and marvel over how we could imagine the world would run out of oil... and the incredible mania that thinking produced in the oil markets in the mid-2000s.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

Gold And Silver Price Reality Does Not Matter - COMEX Potemkin Does / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

It never gets tiring to say how the market is the most reliable source of information in the form of developing market activity. Prior to the sharp sell off in mid-April, the prevailing belief was that central bankers had their golden teat caught in a demand ringer from which there was no escape. Never underestimate the [devious] ability of those in power.

No one expected Cyprus to happen, and no one expected the April sell-off to happen, at least for the reasons it did, which was massive [illegal] naked short-selling by JPM, sanctioned by the Comex and the Obama administration, who has yet to uncover any illegal doings by those who control Wall Street, [along with his administration.]

Saturday, June 08, 2013

Which Way For Gold Price From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Sy_Harding

Without looking very hard you can find just about any outlook for gold, and a reasonable explanation for that outlook, that you might need to fit in with your own expectation.

Even though gold is down 27% from its 2011 top, well past the 20% decline that defines a bear market, gold bugs insist on calling it a brief correction, and have been repeatedly calling the bottom at each short-term rally attempt all the way down.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

The Ghost Empire - Climate Change, Global Warming, Drought and Desertification / Commodities / Climate Change

By: Richard_Mills

Drought is a normal recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. It doesn’t get the attention of a tornado, hurricane or flood. Instead, it’s a slower and less obvious, a much quieter disaster creeping up on us unawares.

Climate change is currently warming many regions, overall warmer temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

Silver Prices: Paper, Physical and the Coin Dealer / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Confirmation of the coming end to the paper silver market will very likely pivot on the physical dealers’ bid price, so this key benchmark bears very close watching indeed.

When the buy back for physical silver price far exceeds the paper price, then you will know the silver market is just about ready to explode to the upside.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

Silver’s Monetary Return / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The quadrillion pound gorilla of silver’s return as a monetary currency is now lurking patiently in the room as the bond market seems to be recovering somewhat.

Nevertheless, perhaps central banks are simply testing the resilience of the bond market by tempting the bond vigilantes out of hiding? Still, one has to remember that there is no strong willed Volker around at the Fed with the guts to raise interest rates to fight inflationary pressures.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

What Does Lack of Gold Price Reaction to U.S. Dollar Plunge Tell Us? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The U.S. Mint has resumed selling its 2013 American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Gold Proof Coin at a hefty $195 per coin as of last week. The Mint has set a 20,000-coin production limit for the coin. Sales of its smallest gold coin was suspended by the Mint in late April as year-to-date demand had increased by more than 118% until inventories could be replenished.

Here are some interesting statistics. So far at close to the half-way point of the year, the U.S. mint has sold more one-tenth ounce gold coins than it did in all of 2012.  About 50,000 such coins have been sold thus far for this month, with a total of 350,000 sold so far this year. This compares to total sales of 315,000 such coins sold for the entire year of 2012. The U.S. Mint will continue to limit purchases of the American Eagle one-ounce silver coins. Sales were suspended earlier this year due to record-breaking demand.

Friday, June 07, 2013

Contrary Gold Futures Forced ETF Selling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

Futures speculators are extraordinarily bearish on gold today.  Their short positions on it are extreme and unprecedented, the highest seen by far in gold’s entire dozen-year secular bull.  They expect downside gold momentum to persist indefinitely.  But despite their reputation for sophistication, futures speculators are notorious for betting wrong at extremes.  Their bearishness is a very bullish contrarian omen for gold.

Given gold’s horrendous 2013 so far, you really can’t blame futures speculators for being so pessimistic on it.  Down 16.2% year-to-date, gold has never suffered a worse calendar-year start in its secular bull.  American stock traders spawned a fierce gold headwind that global buyers couldn’t overcome.  To help raise cash to plow into the euphoric, levitating stock markets, they aggressively dumped gold ETF shares.

Friday, June 07, 2013

US Jobs Data Whip Gold Bullion Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

GOLD and silver prices whipped sharply Friday lunchtime in London, as new US jobs data matched analyst forecasts with a 175,000 rise in Non-Farm Payrolls for May and a slight rise in the jobless rate to 7.6%.

Having touched 1-week highs above $1419 per ounce on Thursday, gold fell back through $1400 Friday as European stock markets erased earlier losses.

Friday, June 07, 2013

France Imposes Cash and Gold Capital Controls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,410.00, EUR 1,065.12 and GBP 905.53 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,399.50, EUR 1,066.69 and GBP 906.12 per ounce.

Gold climbed $9.90 or 0.71% yesterday to $1,412.00/oz and silver’s gained 0.71%.

Friday, June 07, 2013

Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Ming Stock Signals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

Friday, June 07, 2013

China Pollution Crisis Potential for Exponential Clean Energy Metals Demand / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Jeb_Handwerger

The U.S. equity markets such as the S&P500 (SPY) and Dow (DIA) are breaking into new 15 year highs, after an unprecedented move by Bernanke to stimulate the economy over the past five years.

Increasingly, investors may look to cheaper, out of favor sectors such as the uranium and rare earth sector which is critical for clean-carbon free energy. These sectors are crucial for the clean carbon reducing future of emerging nations such as China and India which are dealing with dangerously high levels of air pollution from dirty coal producing plants. Take a look at this picture of Beijing. Air pollution is a major health crisis that is killing people.

Friday, June 07, 2013

Investors Realize the Full Potential of Natural Gas / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: The_Energy_Report

Ramping up domestic North American liquid natural gas production for export to pricier international markets could be a game changer for struggling junior explorers. In this interview with The Energy Report, C. K. Cooper & Company's Jeff Grampp tells us why drilling in domestic gas fields for export is a good idea. . .if the Feds play along. And he identifies promising juniors with leaseholds in particularly desirable fields.

The Energy Report: Jeff, if the Obama administration continues to authorize liquid natural gas (LNG) exports, will that benefit the juniors as well as the big producers?

Jeff Grampp: I believe all U.S. natural gas producers will generally benefit from an increase in LNG exports. Historically, the pricing dynamics of natural gas in the U.S. have been linked to local supply-demand dynamics. With an increase in the potential to export, domestic natural gas producers would be able to access higher priced markets internationally, particularly in Europe and Asia. There will also be local economic benefits tied to the creation of jobs at newly constructed exporting facilities.

Friday, June 07, 2013

Gold Confiscation Possibility Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Casey_Research

By Jeff Thomas, International Man

If you hold precious metals in your portfolio, there is a good chance you fear hyperinflation and the crash of fiat currencies.

You probably distrust governments in general and believe they are self-serving and have no interest in your economic well-being. It is likely that your holdings in gold are your lifeline – your hope to get you through these times while holding on to your wealth.