Friday, September 06, 2024
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So, the GDXJ plunged about 5% yesterday, and it refused to get back up, even though gold price did.
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.
Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.
This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.
Friday, September 06, 2024
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
No amount of wishful thinking and baseless proclamations will change that. Owning gold stocks (miners) instead of the actual physical metal (in other words, processed and refined with appropriate hallmarks and in tradable form) is a losing bet. Investors should ignore the siren song of gold mining shares.
At their highs last week, gold stocks had increased eighty percent from their lows just two years ago. If you had bought then, and held through a thirty percent drop in 2023, you would be up about seventy percent at current prices. That compares very favorably to gold which was up fifty-five percent over the same period. Congratulations if you benefited from that.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2024
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons early 3rd September.
.....
AI Stocks Portfolio Brief Going into September - 3rd Sept - 5am UK Time
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Friday, August 30, 2024
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 1 of 2 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
US Housing Market Analysis and House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Friday, August 30, 2024
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income / Politics / Social Issues
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sam Altman in all his glory is paving the way to turn the masses into slaves on the receiving end of a Universal Billionaire Income. Hands outs from the rich! How is he going to do this? By having his very own money printer, world coin crypto currency, where he will plow some of what makes through OpenAI in attempts to buy your obedience, silence and servitude.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” – George Orwell
“The future’s becoming muddled. The lines of vision are narrowing. But now they’re desperate. All paths lead into darkness.” – Frank Herbert – Dune
Trying to decipher the path ahead becomes more difficult by the day. We are purposefully bombarded with misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda by the ruling class, designed to distract us from their real purpose, real agenda, and real plans to imprison us in their techno-gulag, eating zee bugs in our container sized hovels, using our government issued CBDCs to subsist, unless we dared to question the approved narrative – resulting in our social credit rating dropping into the domestic terrorist zone – getting us banned and shunned from society. This is the New World Order the Davos crowd has designed and will implement as a Great Reset, if they succeed in retaining and increasing control over the U.S. and the rest of the Western World in the next six months.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
The GBP/USD pair has continued its upward trajectory, climbing from 1.2664 to a recent high of 1.3246. This strong bullish momentum suggests that as long as the price remains within the rising channel on the 4-hour chart, the uptrend is likely to persist. The next targets for the pair are around the 1.3350 area, with potential to reach the 1.3500 level.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Tanashian
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure
We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world…
covid, yield curve
…terrorizing society into social and economic lockdown, causing crude oil to go to zero and many markets to begin a crash. The Fed sprang into action with Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), QE, MMT and whatever other TMM (total market manipulation) it could think of in order to create the inflationary pathway out of the disaster.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.
Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”
Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks
Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.
Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:
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Saturday, August 24, 2024
The Consequences of AI / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What happens to humans when they are no longer able to control their own destiny i.e. become less than wage slaves? For that we look to what the Welfare States have supposedly achieved. Does giving benefits to people help or hinder people? In Britain we have a benefits culture that extends to some 9 million people of working age who for a multitude of reasons do not work. So what happens to those within this sub culture?
Are they seeking ways to better themselves or do the devolve deeper into self pity expecting someone else to do things for them, do those who live on benefits look after the property they live in? Their neighbourhoods? We'll go ask any landlord why they won't rent their properties to those on benefits because they will be a nightmare of unreliability.
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Saturday, August 24, 2024
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? / Politics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Kamala Harris is going to fix price inflation.
As she explains it, greedy corporations are arbitrarily raising prices and causing inflation. She will stop this “price gouging” and inflation will go away.
The problem with this plan is greedy corporations don’t cause price inflation. Greedy politicians do.
Friday, August 23, 2024
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Humanity is now creating systems that we DO NOT UNDERSTAND how they actually work! AI is unlike anything man has developed to date, deep neural nets. Anyone who says that they understand what deep neural networks such as the LLM' with their billions and now trillion parameter neural nets are doing is lying. A deep neural net is a lot like looking at a stock price chart where we have the neural net that is on the left and we have the prediction that is outputted on the blank side of the stock chart.
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Friday, August 23, 2024
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
Summary:
- After a strong start to the year, markets have cooled off and the Fear & Greed Index is signaling “extreme fear.” Despite this, stocks have rallied and remain up 14% for the year.
- Investors are hardwired to be pessimistic, but optimists are generally the ones who make more money.
- Despite many crashes, the odds of making money in US stocks is 88% over any five-year period in history. That’s why optimists have a higher chance of making money over the long term.
Friday, August 23, 2024
RIP Google Search / Companies / Google
By: Stephen_McBride
Summary:
- A federal judge ruled Google (GOOG) illegally maintained its search dominance by paying Apple (AAPL) $20 billion annually to be the default search engine on iPhones. This could impact Apple’s profits and signal a decline in Google’s search dominance.
- The growing US national debt could lead to the devaluation of the dollar, resulting in higher stock prices.
- While most investors are cut off from the private markets, the Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) is a fund that allows anyone to own a slice of companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Friday, August 23, 2024
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Richard_Mills
As the richest nation and the world’s largest economy, it is hardly a surprise that the United States holds the most gold.
What is surprising is where the gold isn’t: the United States Federal Reserve, known colloquially as the central bank.
Mainstream media dutifully reports that the American central bank is number one out of the top 10 gold depositories in the world. Its 8,133 metric tons are worth a staggering $630 billion at USD$2,2200/oz.
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Friday, August 23, 2024
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Dollar dominance is slowly ebbing as the world looks to diversify away from the greenback.
The share of dollars making up global reserves has dropped by 14 percent since the turn of the century, according to data compiled by the Atlantic Council.
As of 2002, dollars accounted for 72 percent of global reserves. Today, dollars make up about 58 percent of reserves.
This doesn’t mean the dollar is about to collapse, but it does reveal a slow drift away from dollar dominance as other countries seek to minimize their dependence on the greenback and cut the monetary strings the United States often pulls on to advance its foreign policy goals.
Friday, August 23, 2024
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Industrial demand for silver has been surging in recent years. Solar panel manufacturers were largely behind the 11% jump in demand for 2023 versus the prior year. Forecasters predict another 9% jump this year.
For silver investors, however, the future of demand from manufacturers may be even brighter than the recent past.
The solar industry has been behind much of the growing appetite for silver.
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Friday, August 23, 2024
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
The EUR/USD currency pair has continued its upward movement, rising from 1.0777 to a high of 1.1132 and successfully breaking above the 1.1100 resistance level. This strong performance suggests that further gains are possible, although a minor consolidation may occur first, with the next target around 1.1200.
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