Sunday, June 30, 2024
Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Crypto's Exist Strategy / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin on cue trended lower into halving setting a new swing low on Friday at $59.6k before bouncing post halving, currently trading at £65k. Overall picture remains for BTC in a trading range of $72k to $60k pending a breakout higher probably timed with when the dollar turns lower.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region's Stock Market Indexes / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: EWI
By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.
The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region's social mood, as reflected in Asia's stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Gold Mining Stocks Record Quarter / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners will soon report what will almost certainly prove their best quarter ever. Mostly due to Q2’s record-shattering gold prices, gold miners’ earnings should soar off the charts. Those will be further boosted by slightly-lower mining costs many of these companies are predicting. With such incredibly-strong fundamentals, more professional fund managers should soon start investing in this high-potential sector.
Four times a year, publicly-traded companies report quarterly results. These earnings seasons are very important, illuminating how gold miners are actually faring fundamentally. That really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs often shrouding this sector. I enjoy learning about companies’ fundamentals, so for 32 quarters in a row I’ve analyzed the latest quarterlies from the top 25 gold stocks in both their leading ETFs.
Those are of course the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF dominated by super-major and major gold miners, and its little-brother GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF which is actually overwhelmingly weighted to mid-tier gold miners despite its name. Those categories are defined by annual production levels, with super-majors exceeding 2,000k ounces, majors above 1,000k, mid-tiers over 300k, and juniors under that.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Could Low PCE Inflation Take Gold to the Moon? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The PCE Index statistics were released today, and you might wonder what impact they will have on the price of gold.
Let’s dig in.
One might think that PCE is a critical driver of gold prices (and thus, you might be concerned with what the number is going to be), and there is some truth to it, but looking at how those reports have indeed influenced gold price provides extra context to what might seem obvious.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
UK General Election 2024 Result Forecast / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
AI Stocks Portfolio Accumulate and Distribute / Companies / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Several more target stocks have entered their buying ranges - TSMC, ASML, Apple.ALB, CRUS, JBL, GPN to join the likes of AMD, ADSK, GFS and TSLA.
The key metrics to watch are the buying ranges and deviations from all time highs i.e. AMD is well within it's buying range and is trading at -36% deviation from it's all time high set just a few weeks ago! As well as now no longer trading above 100% of it's PE range unlike META.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Gold Stocks Reloading / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been grinding lower for a month now, sapping traders’ enthusiasm. But this is par for the gold-summer-doldrums course, what typically happens in June. This sentiment-rebalancing drift is quite bullish for this high-potential sector, reloading it for another strong surge higher. With their probable mid-summer bottoming nearing, traders have a mid-upleg opportunity to add undervalued gold stocks.
Reloading always reminds me of target shooting, which was a fun part of my life growing up. Back then liberals hadn’t demonized guns yet, they were part of the cultural fabric. At my high school, its parking lot was full of kids’ pickups with loaded firearms hanging in their back windows! Most teenagers hunted with their fathers, and some participated in a local trap-shooting league along with my town’s police officers.
Back then ammunition was cheap, making target shooting affordable. You could buy 1000 rounds of 5.56 at many sporting-goods stores for under $100! That made for a fun afternoon of shooting with friends. My favorite targets were eggs. They are small and challenging to hit at range, explode nicely, and don’t need to be cleaned up as they’re biodegradable. Reloading magazines before shooting was the worst part.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Gold Price Completely Unsurprising Reversal and Next Steps / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Did today’s decline in gold surprise you? It shouldn’t – during Thursday’s rally, gold moved to two resistance lines.
And I sent out a special Alert indicating that this was actually a shorting opportunity. That’s my second position in gold in years, and we closed the previous one (it was a long position) profitably in April this year.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Inflation – How It Started And Where We Are Now / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
INFLATION – HOW IT ALL STARTED
Early ruling monarchs would ‘clip ’ small pieces of the coins they accumulated through taxes and other levies against their subjects. The clipped pieces were melted down and fabricated into new coins. All of the coins were then returned to circulation. The clipped coins circulated side by side with other coins and all were assumed to be equal in value.
As the process evolved, more and more clipped coins showed up in circulation. People became suspicious and were reluctant to accept the clipped coins at full face value. Their concern prompted the ruling powers to reduce the precious metal content of the coins. This lowered the cost to fabricate and issue new coins. Soon, all of the coins in circulation had less precious metal content. Hence, there was no need to clip the coins anymore.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
In a word, yes. But first, bad market breadth will likely be… bad
A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.
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Thursday, June 20, 2024
How to Capitalise on the Robots / Companies / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apple scraps electric cars for robots!
Amazon has over 800,000 robots already deployed directly displacing 100,000 human workers.
Luckily we are already heavily investing in the primary robotic companies set to capitalise on this mega-trend such as Tesla and Nvidia that is powering AI with it's latest release the Blackwell GPU's relabeled as AI accelerators.
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Thursday, June 20, 2024
Bitcoin, Gold, and Copper Paint a Coherent Picture / Commodities / Bitcoin
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Bitcoin was heralded as the new gold. But the “old” gold ultimately managed to move above its 2021 highs, while the “new” gold didn’t.
Gold didn’t disappear; they both coexist, and they both have a strong anti-dollar vibe.
Questioning Bitcoin's Rally
But… Could it be the case that bitcoin’s rally is over? It hasn’t moved to new highs after all, despite halving, which was supposed to ignite a powerful move up. It seemed like a sure bet, as it limits the supply of bitcoins. Instead, it triggered another attempt (!) to move to new highs – one that failed, too.
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Thursday, June 20, 2024
Why a Dow Stock Market Peak Will Boost Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
During the Great Depression, both silver (1931) and the Dow (1932) reached a significant low. Both have rallied significantly since then. However, the structure of the rallies was very different.
To date, the Dow has significantly outperformed silver since those lows. The Dow increased 988-fold from the low to the all-time high, whereas silver has only increased 179-fold from the low to the all-time high.
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Thursday, June 20, 2024
QI Group: Leading With Integrity and Impactful Initiatives / Companies / Corporate News
By: Sumeet_Manhas
There are many different ways to lead, in both life and business. Some philosophies are more effective than others and often the “right” way to lead is also the hard way, or the expensive way. Perhaps that is why we see hope when a large, multinational conglomerate operates with the dignity of a socially conscious entity and not the brutal coldness of overt capitalism. QI Group, through its philanthropic efforts, global partnerships, and sustainability efforts, is that company.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Tesla Robo Taxis are Coming THIS YEAR! / Companies / Tesla
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I've covered Tesla at length over the past couple of years, promoting it to primary AI due to developments in it's AI and robotics divisions which has been manifesting itself in FSD updates that have long promised to turn every Tesla car into a fully self driving car, a defacto robo taxi! With the release of FSD 12.3 that future is just a mere months away as Musk tweeted.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Will NVDA Crash the Market? / Companies / Nvidia
By: Stephen_McBride
I recently had an important talk with my Executive Editor Chris Reilly about Nvidia’s (NVDA) huge influence on the stock market.Can this once-in-a-lifetime company continue to propel markets higher… or is the stock market now topping out?
Our transcribed conversation follows.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Strike up the band and wave the victory banners! Inflation is dead!
Or is it?
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was cause for optimism. But price inflation is like that stubborn weed in the driveway. Just when you think you’ve killed it for good, it pokes back through a crack.
Keep in mind that this time last year, we were also talking about a victory over inflation.
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?) haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)
After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -
a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Gold Price Consolidating at High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has generally drifted sideways for a couple months now, consolidating high. That lack of progress has significantly eroded sentiment, bleeding off greed and stoking bearishness. But this healthy process is exactly what gold needed to rebalance sentiment. After soaring to extremely-overbought levels in April, greed grew excessive. The high consolidation since is bleeding that off, readying gold for another surge higher.
From mid-February to mid-April, gold blasted a powerful 20.0% higher in a remarkable breakout surge. Fully 19 new nominal record closes were achieved in that short span, which really excited traders! The lion’s share of that upside wasn’t fueled by gold’s usual primary drivers, speculators buying gold futures and American stock investors buying gold-ETF shares. Chinese investors and central banks took the helm.
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