Thursday, September 12, 2024
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.
Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
Global Debt Bubble / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The global debt bubble that just keeps on inflating. And what does all this debt do? Debase currency and Inflate asset prices.
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The CPI data is going to be released today, so the markets are tense.
Gold's Gains Limited by Short-Term Resistance
Gold moved slightly higher, but the very short-term resistance line based on the previous highs keeps gold’s gains in check.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
When I think about the metals market, I chuckle as it has obliterated just about every expectation many have had about what drives the market.
We have seen metals decline during a strong inflationary period in 2022, wherein most were expecting it to rally alongside inflation. We have seen metals rally alongside the US Dollar, when most were expecting it to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. And, we have seen rallies surprise many market participants due to a “lack of clear catalyst.”
Well, anyone that has followed my work through the years should not be surprised. I have attempted time and again to outline the many fallacies propagated throughout the metals market, while also outlining the most accurate manner in which you should track the metals. To this end, those that have followed along through the years recognize the accuracy of our work.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
As the summer winds down, investors are keeping a close eye on the precious metals market. August proved to be a stellar month for both gold and silver, with gold prices rising a solid 3.5% and silver not far behind at 3.2%.
But what does the future hold? Well, according to Bank of America, the outlook is positively golden. In a recent note to clients, the bank stated, “We believe gold can hit $3,000/oz over the next 12-18 months…”. That’s a nice 20% move up from here. If silver holds its 3x typical ratio, that’s $50 silver, which we wrote on two weeks back.
Speaking of Bank of America, strategists have a bold prediction for investors: commodities are the way to go for the rest of the 2020s. In a recent note, they argue that a “commodity bull is just starting” due to a structural rise in inflation. “Commodities are a better bet than bonds for the rest of the 2020s.”
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Gold’s Demand Comeback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
This gold bull’s latest upleg has proven mighty, surging to many new nominal record highs. Amazingly gold’s massive gains have accrued despite no demand from one of its primary drivers. That’s differential gold-ETF-share buying by American stock investors. Enthralled by the AI stock bubble, those guys have been missing-in-action. When they finally return, gold’s demand comeback will supercharge its gains.
The great majority of gold’s price trends have long been driven by speculators’ gold-futures trading and/or investors’ gold-ETF-share trading. I’ve analyzed this extensively in recent decades, discussing the latest trends of both primary drivers in countless essays and subscription newsletters. Understanding what both groups of gold-dominating traders are doing is essential for profitably gaming gold’s upleg-correction cycles.
Born in early October 2023, today’s gold upleg has blasted up 38.7% at best over 10.8 months now! In early December, gold achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years. Since then 28 more records have been written into the books, an incredible run by any standards! Gold’s upleg is now on the verge of powering up 40%+ into monster status. Remarkably this has happened with one hand tied behind its back.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper is definitely the most important industrial metal out there.
Freeport-McMoRan Reflects Market Trends
In the entire commodity sector, only crude oil is more widely used. And given the increasing importance of all-things-electronic, copper is unlikely to be forgotten anytime soon. This doesn’t mean that the only way in which its price can move is up (far from it), but it does indicate that this market is likely linked to multiple other markets – also to gold price.
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Friday, September 06, 2024
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now / Politics / Climate Change
By: Nadeem_Walayat
- INSURANCE CANCELLATIONS!
In the US and elsewhere more so than the UK home owners are getting their home insurance cancelled!
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So, the GDXJ plunged about 5% yesterday, and it refused to get back up, even though gold price did.
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.
Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.
This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.
Friday, September 06, 2024
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
No amount of wishful thinking and baseless proclamations will change that. Owning gold stocks (miners) instead of the actual physical metal (in other words, processed and refined with appropriate hallmarks and in tradable form) is a losing bet. Investors should ignore the siren song of gold mining shares.
At their highs last week, gold stocks had increased eighty percent from their lows just two years ago. If you had bought then, and held through a thirty percent drop in 2023, you would be up about seventy percent at current prices. That compares very favorably to gold which was up fifty-five percent over the same period. Congratulations if you benefited from that.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2024
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons early 3rd September.
.....
AI Stocks Portfolio Brief Going into September - 3rd Sept - 5am UK Time
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Friday, August 30, 2024
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 1 of 2 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
US Housing Market Analysis and House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Friday, August 30, 2024
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income / Politics / Social Issues
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sam Altman in all his glory is paving the way to turn the masses into slaves on the receiving end of a Universal Billionaire Income. Hands outs from the rich! How is he going to do this? By having his very own money printer, world coin crypto currency, where he will plow some of what makes through OpenAI in attempts to buy your obedience, silence and servitude.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” – George Orwell
“The future’s becoming muddled. The lines of vision are narrowing. But now they’re desperate. All paths lead into darkness.” – Frank Herbert – Dune
Trying to decipher the path ahead becomes more difficult by the day. We are purposefully bombarded with misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda by the ruling class, designed to distract us from their real purpose, real agenda, and real plans to imprison us in their techno-gulag, eating zee bugs in our container sized hovels, using our government issued CBDCs to subsist, unless we dared to question the approved narrative – resulting in our social credit rating dropping into the domestic terrorist zone – getting us banned and shunned from society. This is the New World Order the Davos crowd has designed and will implement as a Great Reset, if they succeed in retaining and increasing control over the U.S. and the rest of the Western World in the next six months.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
The GBP/USD pair has continued its upward trajectory, climbing from 1.2664 to a recent high of 1.3246. This strong bullish momentum suggests that as long as the price remains within the rising channel on the 4-hour chart, the uptrend is likely to persist. The next targets for the pair are around the 1.3350 area, with potential to reach the 1.3500 level.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Tanashian
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure
We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world…
covid, yield curve
…terrorizing society into social and economic lockdown, causing crude oil to go to zero and many markets to begin a crash. The Fed sprang into action with Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), QE, MMT and whatever other TMM (total market manipulation) it could think of in order to create the inflationary pathway out of the disaster.
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Friday, August 30, 2024
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.
Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”
Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks
Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.
Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:
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