Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.
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Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).
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Monday, March 25, 2024
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve didn’t do anything at its March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but Jerome Powell & Company had plenty to say.
The Fed’s dovish rhetoric sent a wave of relief through the markets and drove stocks to yet another all-time high.
People would probably be wise to remember that saying isn’t doing.
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.
Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.
It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"
Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.
In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.
When worsening economic conditions – especially in the labor market – are pointed out, it is either not noticed or ignored. The wealthy and well-connected don’t care; and others don’t know enough to care. If stocks are up, things must be okay.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Have you ever wondered what makes successful crypto traders different? How do they navigate an unpredictable market and consistently achieve impressive results? It's time to reveal the secret of their triumph and show what strategies professional traders use.
Taking the first steps to financial success in a promising market is easier than you think. All you need is internet access, a device, and work strategies such as Order Flow.
Monday, March 18, 2024
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / US Presidential Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis posted in January 2023 that despite MSM hysteria strongly suggested that there would be NO recession during 2023, as there had never been a recession during a pre-election year. Whilst the highest risk is that the recession materialises during 2025, though both 2024 and 2026 are equally high recession risk years.
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Monday, March 18, 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2022 Q1 and Q2 , what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!
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Monday, March 18, 2024
AI can now remember everything you say / Politics / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
- Did you know this is the biggest election year in history?
I’m not only talking November’s US presidential election.
In 2024, 76 countries with more than four billion people will head to the polls.
Investors, pay attention—because any politician who wants to get re-elected is incentivized to hand out goodies to voters.
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin Crypto Mania $72k, Bitcoin proxy MSTR mania $1650, here's my Bitcoin analysis and concluding trend forecast for the whole of 2024 that was first made available to patrons who support my work who were buying bitcoin from 16k, no kidding $16k! Where this trend forecast for 2024 dates back to $27k, and then we had MSTR at under $500 in January, all for the price of a cheap Martini, $5 bucks! That's all! to have recieved my Bitcoin Gift! I could not have been any clearer at the time both for Bitcoin and the Microstrategy gravy trains.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Bitcoin $70k, Bitcoin proxy MSTR $1400, here's my Bitcoin trend forecast for 2024 which includes how you could have bought BTC for $27k and MSTR for under $500 all for the price of a Martini, just $5 bucks! Being tight fisted has cost you the Bitcoin gift! Still it's not over! The crypto bull market is only getting started! Nevertheless my Bitcoin gift that was first made available to Patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. I mean what you getting access for just $5 bucks is literally insane as you will soon find out....
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clif_Droke
Of the many factors that determine gold price trends, the long-term cycle of inflation and deflation is of singular importance. The cycle in question corresponds closely to the 50-to-60-year economic periodicity known as the Kondratieff Wave (or K-Wave), but is in fact a separate cycle. As we’ll discuss here, the cycle tells us to expect a gradual acceleration of inflationary pressures between now and the year 2029, with particular significance for gold investors.
The K-Wave was brought to renown in the 1920s by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff and is widely regarded as the predominant economic super cycle. This cycle arguably represents the most casual approach to identifying the real supply/demand conditions of any free market economy and is especially applicable to the United States. (Cycle analysts have even identified this cycle as existing as far back as thousands of years ago in Assyria and the Roman Empire.)
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is core PCE, which stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This inflation gauge, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), doesn’t include food and energy, because prices for these two categories tend to be volatile.
When the latest PCE numbers came out on Feb. 29, they showed January headline PCE was 2.4%, year on year, while core PCE was 2.8%.
Remember, the Fed’s targeted inflation rate is 2%. Inflation needs to be falling to somewhere close to 2%, for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates, having raised them 11 times since spring 2022.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Kelsey_Williams
There are two reasons the Fed manipulates interest rates. Before we talk about those reasons, though,it is important to understand that the Fed does not actually control interest rates. Interest rates are set in the bond market. Buyers and sellers (traders) bid for and offer bonds for sale. When a buyer and seller agree on a price, the trade is finalized. The specific price, in conjunction with the face value of the bond (always $1000) and the stated coupon rate attached to the bond (and the length of time until the bond matures for yield to maturity) factor into the formula which determines the current yield, or what might be called the bond’s current interest rate.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
US Dollar Trend 2024 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Generally when the dollar falls US stocks go up, and when the dollar rises US stocks would tend to exhibit a weaker trend, so a rising dollar does not necessary mean that stocks will fall, rather that it is the rate of change, how volatile the dollar is that can send ripples of uncertainty in the market, so the dollar trading sharply lower would be bearish for stocks -
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
An opportunist trade to capitalise on the bond market blood bath of 2023,, objective for about a 50% return over 2 years with my original analysis timed to coincide with the bond market bottom - 7th Aug 2023 https://www.patreon.com/posts/inflation-bond-87342150
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
This week investors are witnessing a historic move in gold prices. The precious metal finally broke above a longstanding overhead resistance level to reach new all-time highs.
On Thursday, gold closed at $2,170 per ounce – its highest level since…well, since records have been kept.
As of this Friday recording, gold checks in at $2,203 an ounce on the heels of a 5.2% advance on the week – its best week in nearly six months. Silver shows a weekly gain of 5.9% to bring spot prices to $24.70 an ounce. Platinum is up 3.0% to trade at $926. And finally, palladium is putting in a 6.7% gain this week to come in at $1,061 per ounce.
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