Thursday, August 15, 2024

What's So Great About 2 Percent Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Don’t be fooled when you hear “inflation is coming down.” That's not the plan and it never was.

The fact is price inflation was up in July.

And it will be up in August.

And it will be up in September.

That’s because rising price inflation is the Federal Reserve’s stated policy.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply Vs House Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This graph shows the US stock market total market cap divided by M2 money supply as a measure of relative valuations which shows stocks in October 2022 were just as cheap as they were during the depths of the 2000 pandemic crash, remember October 2022? When most feared much lower prices and thus failed to buy when stocks were cheap, as is usually the case at every market bottom!

Also whilst stocks are nowhere at the bubble territory of the dot com bubble they are definitely not cheap hence why I am currently approx 70% invested in stocks after taking off the 10% invested in cyclical crypto's that I will probably completely disinvest from over the next 12 months.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Are we Slipping into a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2024

By: Stephen_McBride

That’s the question on every investor’s mind right now. Because recessions are bad for stocks.

In today’s Jolt, I’ll walk you through what the three most accurate recession indicators are telling us… and suggest what to do about it.

Let’s get after it.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.

Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold Supply Falling Short of Market Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Richard_Mills

It’s been a volatile week in the markets.

On Monday, Aug. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 3%, resulting in the worst day for both indexes since September 2022. 

The sell-off was blamed on factors ranging from worries about the economy and the slow response from the Federal Reserve, regarding interest rate cuts, to the unwind of a popular global currency trade and concerns over corporate earnings, CNBC said.

(The “carry trade” involves borrowing in cheap currencies such as the Japanese yen and buying higher-yielding currencies. It has helped to supply markets with liquidity.)

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold’s Minsky Moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

A “Minsky Moment” refers to a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash.

Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets.

Monday, August 12, 2024

The Future of Mankind - You are Being Sold a Lie! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: MoneyMetals

The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.

Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.

Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming.. Part 1/2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.

Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.

That’s just the beginning.

Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:

Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

The #1 Takeaway from Big Tech Stocks Earnings / Companies / Earnings

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s a jam-packed Jolt on artificial intelligence (AI) today… plus, a well-deserved dunk on The New York Times.
Let’s get after it…

1. America spent $600 billion (in today’s dollars) building its highway system.

Big tech companies will spend more money constructing AI data centers in the next four years.

It’s the biggest infrastructure buildout ever, and it’s not even close.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.

But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Optimal Gold Stocks Macro Evolving / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Gary_Tanashian

The macro setup for gold stocks is evolving into something that will surprise many after decades of poor fundamentals

I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.

As you can see, the HUI/Gold ratio made a top in 2003 and has been down and flat ever since. Personally, I believe it made a double bottom earlier this year. I don’t believe that because I want to (even though I do want to). I believe it because of macro developments currently in play.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Financial Markets Attempting To Find Its Footing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: The_Gold_Report

USD dollar index futures are higher (+0.24%) this morning, and bond yields are also higher.

Gold (+0.49%) and silver (+0.08%) are rallying a tad, while copper and oil are flat.

Stock futures are rallying, with risk barometer Bitcoin up 1.39%.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter.  Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed.  Yet despite all that, risks abound.  The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies.  Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.

The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July!  Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days.  The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

U.S. Trilogy: debt-based dollar and economy, stablecoin digital currency, BRICS new world. / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System

By: Raymond_Matison

Debt-based dollar and economy

Over a century ago the United States Congress approved a deceitfully promoted Federal Reserve Central Bank, which then established a new debt-based monetary system. Its concept of creating and introducing ever more currency into a country which had little debt, initially worked well to create economic stimulus at the time, and currency available to participate in WWI and WWII.   That stimulus also bought forth the wild market speculation of the 1920s, the necessary precursor for tightening of credit and the Great Depression.  Outlawing citizen ownership of real money (Constitutionally designated as gold and silver coins) in 1934, it required citizens to turn in their gold coins to banks, which were complicit with government to steal money from citizens as gold was then revalued by from $20.63 to $35.00 an ounce.

Thursday, July 04, 2024

Stocks Correct into Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Earnings Season Buying Opps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

It's 4th July 2024 Britains Independance Day from Clown Sunak.

The polls will be opening at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.

Thursday, July 04, 2024

24 Hours Until Clown Rishi Sunak is Booted Out of Number 10 - UK General Election 2024 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The polls will soon open at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.

Monday, July 01, 2024

Clown Rishi Delivers Tory Election Bloodbath, Labour 400+ Seat Landslide / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!