Sunday, September 22, 2024

US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.

.....

Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)

US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

US State Demographics / Housing-Market / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The big problem with US house price trends is that the US is just so big! Whilst the US as a whole will see a rising population however that rise is not uniform across all states, so whilst this analysis is heading towards a conclusion for rising average house prices that does not mean that house prices will rise in your town, city or state. For instance it appears folk are fleeing the likes of New York and California for Texas and Florida of all places! Which I guess is more of a dream of what Florida once was rather than what it has become i.e. over populated. I strongly suspect that Florida will witness a trend reversal over the coming years as folk flee over crowded Florida for the likes of the Carolinas.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Submissions

When the Federal Reserve decides to slash interest rates, it sets off a domino effect in the financial world, and precious metals like gold and silver are among the first to feel the impact. Yesterday, we saw a 0.50% cut, so it’s time to revisit how these metals have historically performed… and let’s just say, they’ve put on quite the show.

The Golden (and Silver) Truth About Fed Rate Cuts

Since 2000, gold and silver have shown a knack for appreciating when the Fed cuts rates by a full half percentage point. Here’s a look at how they’ve danced to the Fed’s tune:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

Every now and then, I peruse articles written on Seeking Alpha to glean a flavor for what the average investor feels about the current market environment. And, to that end, I will scan the comments section for some nuggets of anecdotal sentiment.

So, over the last week or so, I have seen quite a few comments about the S&P500 such as these:

"We could hit 10k sometime around 2028 but I wouldn't be surprised with 2027 either."
"At this point it's clear that nothing will sink stocks. Even a full blown recession event like 2008 wouldn't be able to do much damage to the stock market at this point. In fact it would be bullish because Fed would print trillions to pump stocks again."

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

US Population Growth Rate / Economics / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Are Stocks Overheating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.
Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 31.0% of them are bearish, up from 24.9% last week.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:

"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"

Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends. This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET? 

Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments world-wide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%…

Thursday, September 12, 2024

IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.

Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Global Debt Bubble / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The global debt bubble that just keeps on inflating. And what does all this debt do? Debase currency and Inflate asset prices.

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Gold’s Outlook CPI Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The CPI data is going to be released today, so the markets are tense.

Gold's Gains Limited by Short-Term Resistance

Gold moved slightly higher, but the very short-term resistance line based on the previous highs keeps gold’s gains in check.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I think about the metals market, I chuckle as it has obliterated just about every expectation many have had about what drives the market.

We have seen metals decline during a strong inflationary period in 2022, wherein most were expecting it to rally alongside inflation. We have seen metals rally alongside the US Dollar, when most were expecting it to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. And, we have seen rallies surprise many market participants due to a “lack of clear catalyst.”

Well, anyone that has followed my work through the years should not be surprised. I have attempted time and again to outline the many fallacies propagated throughout the metals market, while also outlining the most accurate manner in which you should track the metals. To this end, those that have followed along through the years recognize the accuracy of our work.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Submissions

As the summer winds down, investors are keeping a close eye on the precious metals market. August proved to be a stellar month for both gold and silver, with gold prices rising a solid 3.5% and silver not far behind at 3.2%.

But what does the future hold? Well, according to Bank of America, the outlook is positively golden. In a recent note to clients, the bank stated, “We believe gold can hit $3,000/oz over the next 12-18 months…”. That’s a nice 20% move up from here. If silver holds its 3x typical ratio, that’s $50 silver, which we wrote on two weeks back.

Speaking of Bank of America, strategists have a bold prediction for investors: commodities are the way to go for the rest of the 2020s. In a recent note, they argue that a “commodity bull is just starting” due to a structural rise in inflation. “Commodities are a better bet than bonds for the rest of the 2020s.”

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Gold’s Demand Comeback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

This gold bull’s latest upleg has proven mighty, surging to many new nominal record highs.  Amazingly gold’s massive gains have accrued despite no demand from one of its primary drivers.  That’s differential gold-ETF-share buying by American stock investors.  Enthralled by the AI stock bubble, those guys have been missing-in-action.  When they finally return, gold’s demand comeback will supercharge its gains.

The great majority of gold’s price trends have long been driven by speculators’ gold-futures trading and/or investors’ gold-ETF-share trading.  I’ve analyzed this extensively in recent decades, discussing the latest trends of both primary drivers in countless essays and subscription newsletters.  Understanding what both groups of gold-dominating traders are doing is essential for profitably gaming gold’s upleg-correction cycles.

Born in early October 2023, today’s gold upleg has blasted up 38.7% at best over 10.8 months now!  In early December, gold achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years.  Since then 28 more records have been written into the books, an incredible run by any standards!  Gold’s upleg is now on the verge of powering up 40%+ into monster status.  Remarkably this has happened with one hand tied behind its back.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Copper is definitely the most important industrial metal out there.

Freeport-McMoRan Reflects Market Trends

In the entire commodity sector, only crude oil is more widely used. And given the increasing importance of all-things-electronic, copper is unlikely to be forgotten anytime soon. This doesn’t mean that the only way in which its price can move is up (far from it), but it does indicate that this market is likely linked to multiple other markets – also to gold price.

Friday, September 06, 2024

GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now / Politics / Climate Change

By: Nadeem_Walayat

- INSURANCE CANCELLATIONS!

In the US and elsewhere more so than the UK home owners are getting their home insurance cancelled!

Friday, September 06, 2024

Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

So, the GDXJ plunged about 5% yesterday, and it refused to get back up, even though gold price did.

Friday, September 06, 2024

Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.

Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.

This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.

Friday, September 06, 2024

GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

No amount of wishful thinking and baseless proclamations will change that. Owning gold stocks (miners) instead of the actual physical metal (in other words, processed and refined with appropriate hallmarks and in tradable form) is a losing bet. Investors should ignore the siren song of gold mining shares.

At their highs last week, gold stocks had increased eighty percent from their lows just two years ago. If you had bought then, and held through a thirty percent drop in 2023, you would be up about seventy percent at current prices.  That compares very favorably to gold which was up fifty-five percent over the same period. Congratulations if you benefited from that.