Sunday, October 09, 2016
Gold Bull Markets Have Corrections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Human nature is nothing if not consistent. I’ve seen this dozens of times. At every single intermediate cycle low traders begin to doubt. No matter how strong the bull signals are, when a correction occurs traders find, or make up reasons for why the bear market is still in force or a new bear market is starting.
Folks, bull markets have to have corrections. They don’t signal the end of the bull, they are just profit taking events when price gets stretched too far above the mean, or when sentiment becomes too bullish.
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
I used to wonder how these massive World Wars happened.
World War I, for instance. The “official” story for why it happened makes absolutely no sense. The mainstream reason for the war was because some Archduke from Austria got killed.
Then, like some bizarre drunken bar fight, tens of millions of people from dozens of different countries all were wounded or injured in the ensuing four years.
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andy_Sutton
This will be a bit different of a piece because we are not reporting on something that has already happened; we’re dealing with something that is ongoing and developing. Graham will handle roughly the first half of the article, then Andy will handle the second. Please bear with us as we try to break this editorial into two distinct pieces. You’ll understand as you read it why we chose to handle this in such a fashion.
Since everything in the blogosphere goes by what is officially declared by who, so forth, and so on, ditto, ditto, etc, etc, we are officially declaring there is yet ANOTHER bubble – this one in housing. Again. Perhaps ‘still’ is the proper word rather than ‘again since the first one never really was totally washed out of the system. As an addendum to our very well-received ‘American Economics’ piece, we’ll add a corollary: binges are good, purges are not to be tolerated unless absolutely necessary. If a purge becomes necessary, it will be only enough to give the Proletariat the idea that the problem is actually gone. A purge will never last longer than is absolutely necessary since that might affect consumer spending and the consumetariat’s voracious appetite for debt and financial self-mutilation.
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Rubino
Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.
In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
US Dollar Crawl / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The US Dollar has been crawling along its rising 110 weekly moving average. This is not a bullish pattern and suggests a fall down to the US Dollar’s next lower support zone.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2168. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2144 by Tuesday. A gap up opening on Wednesday carried the market to SPX 2164. Then a pullback on Thursday to SPX 2150 was followed by a rally into Friday to SPX 2166. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2145, only to end the week at SPX 2154. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: construction spending, wholesale inventories, the Q3 GDP estimate, the ADP, plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, auto sales, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the PPI and Retail sales. Best to your week!
Saturday, October 08, 2016
Gold Bugs Great News - COT Report Playing Out As Usual, Means Lower Then Much Higher Prices Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: John_Rubino
This year’s recovery in precious metals prices – and the sudden spike in gold/silver mining stocks – convinced a lot of people that a new bull market had begun. Last week’s brutal smack-down scared the hell out of many of the same folks.
The latest commitment of traders (COT) report implies that we should all relax. Things are playing out pretty much according to a script that’s been in place for decades — and which points to happy times by early next year.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
The US Economy and Stock Market are in Trouble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
The US economy may be approaching its 28th consecutive quarter of growth from the end of the 2008-2009 recession, but all is not as it seems. Shadow Stats www.shadowstats.com shows that, because of changes to the way GDP is calculated dating back to the 1980s, the US economy, instead of growing since 2000, has largely been trapped in a series of rolling recessions. According to Shadow Stats, the US economy is in its 45th consecutive quarter of negative growth. Stagnant income growth largely benefitting the top 20% of the working population; the collapsing labour force participation rate that results in a gross understatement of the real unemployment rate; a large army of part-time workers; many not counted as a part of the labour force just because they have been out of work a year or longer and are no longer counted; half the working population earning less than $30,000 annually; millennials burdened with record student loans and unable to form households as they cannot find the jobs; and a retiring baby boomer workforce, many of them unprepared for retirement, are just some of the reasons the US economy continues to underperform even as officialdom touts growth.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
A FREE trading Event That Will Teach You How to Spot Trading Opportunities in your Charts / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Dear Trader,
You have an opportunity to spend the next week learning how you can spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Crude's Post-OPEC Rally "Bears Watching" But "Natural Gas is More Interesting Market at this Juncture" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
New insights from Chief Energy Analyst Steve Craig
Elliott Wave International's Steve Craig offers you his latest insight on price trends in crude oil and natural gas.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Trump Election Campaign Blows Up Following Leaked Lewd Groping Women Tape / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The deeper one digs into Trumps past the worse things tend to get for his election chances. So it's no wonder Trump is failing to release his tax returns which would likely show that he is a FAKE billionaire i.e. probably has zero net worth or worse. Anyway the latest that the anti-Trump media establishment has been able to dig up is a lewd audio tape from a decade ago, and it really is shocking to hear! Especially so for the republican bible belt!
Friday, October 07, 2016
WARNING: the Markets Might Crash HERE AND NOW / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Stock investing is ultimately based on risk.
The global risk-free rate is the Us 10-Year Treasury. Again, this is the “risk-free” rate for the world. Stocks trade relative to this rate.
The ENTIRE move in the market from the early 2016 lows was predicated on bon yields falling (or bond prices rising). As this occurred, risk became cheaper, forcing stocks higher.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
The Next Recession Looms Large / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.
Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks plummeted out of the blue this week, shattering their bull-market uptrends. Gold-futures speculators had been holding excessive long positions for months, weathering all kinds of selling catalysts. But once gold slipped through key support, long-side futures stop losses started to trigger unleashing cascading selling. Understanding this event and its implications is crucial for traders.
This week’s precious-metals carnage was a big surprise, erupting suddenly with no technical warning. Gold had been faring quite well after hitting its latest interim high of $1365 in early July. That was driven by heavy fund buying of gold-ETF shares in the wake of late June’s unexpected pro-Brexit vote. After those big capital inflows dried up, gold consolidated high. At worst by late August it had pulled back 4.1% to $1308.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Sterling Flash Crash Last Night? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Marty_Chenard
Remember flash crashes?
Well, one showed up last night with the Sterling dropping about 10% and then recouping to about a 2% drop.
Here is the question ... Was it really a flash crash or a real exodus out of the Sterling? (In other words, was it a computer trading issue or a trader issue?)
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Friday, October 07, 2016
British Pound Sterling Flash Crash and the Rise of Machine Intelligence (AI) / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently a computer algorithm (dumb AI) crashed sterling during the night, dropping it by about 10% before it mostly recovered but still remains 2% down from where it started. Whilst the media is focused on which person or group of persons could be behind the flash crash, however all are failing to comprehend the bigger picture of what this and other flash crashes represent, computer algorithms / AI's with the ability to bring our civilisation to a juddering halt literally within minutes as my forth coming series of videos on AI mega-trend investing will seek to illuminate how to profit form, because dumb AI's will within a matter of a few short years be starting to exceed human intelligence.
Friday, October 07, 2016
What Tools Does the Fed Have Left and How Could They Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Although the U.S. economy is currently expanding, we cannot rule out the possibility of a significant slowdown in the next few years. Some analysts argue that the Fed would be out of ammunition during the next crisis. Is that true? “Not necessarily,” as it turns out – the whole issue is a bit more complicated. We will now analyze what monetary weapons could the Fed use to stimulate the economy when the next recession strikes. The table below presents a short summary of available tools.
Friday, October 07, 2016
Pound Sterling Flash Crashes. Is the SPX Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Last night’s flash crash in the Pound Sterling should not take us by surprise. It was merely fulfilling its Bearish Pennant objectives. In addition, it was within a Wave 3 of (3) scenario, which would tell us that there would be large gaps in trading as it descends.
ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. equity index futures fell, with European, Asian stocks also declining before the September payrolls data, following the stunning 2-minute "flash crash" meltdown in sterling which plunged as much as 6.1%, the most since Brexit and is set for its biggest weekly loss since 2009.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash” – Up 1.7% In Week As Gilts Sell Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Sterling gold surged 5% in less than a minute overnight in Asia with prices rising from £994/oz to £1,043.40/oz as sterling had a massive “flash crash.” Sterling plummeted in the second biggest fall in its history – only slightly less than the collapse after the Brexit vote.
Despite gold’s peculiar, sharp fall in dollar terms on Tuesday and 4.1% loss for the week, sterling gold is another 1.7% higher this week – from £1,010/oz to £1,027/oz – again showing gold’s importance in hedging against currency devaluation.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Market Crash Sound More like Stock Market Trash when you listen to Drs of Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
A small mind is obstinate. A great mind can lead and be led. Alexander CannonEvery few months there is some nonsensical headline that is passed off as news when it should be relegated to the rubbish bin of time. Sometimes it is high oil price that is not good for the market, and then on other occasions, we hear that low oil prices are not good. Then you have the Dance with the Fed and interest rates, which sounds more like a silly girl peeling petals from a flower and murmuring “he loves me, or he loves me not”. If you go back and start from 2006 for example, you will notice that with the passage of each year the headlines are bombastic in nature. However, the outcome is always the same, the masses panic and the smart money comes and laps up all the stocks being sold for next to nothing.
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