Thursday, January 14, 2016
Market Forecasts 2016: An About-Face for the Fed and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Peter_Schiff
Synopsis: The Federal Reserve's December interest rate hike was actually the end of the Fed's tightening cycle that began with the first taper talk several years ago. The Fed will be forced to restart QE and lower interest rates again (maybe even into negative territory) when it becomes clear the US economy is sliding back into recession. When that happens, investors who have been selling gold on expectations of economic health will have to reverse their bets and begin buying as gold rallies.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Gold Price Declined and Simultaneously Rose in 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. dollar price of gold declined in 2015, but the same year gold advanced in many other currencies. What can we learn from this behavior?
The London spot price of the shiny metal, in U.S. dollars, declined 9.56 percent from $1172 to $1060 last year, marking its fourth full year in a bear market. It also fell from the perspective of the Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen. However, gold prices quoted in other major currencies show a different picture.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
The Perils of "Buying the Dip" in U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: EWI
Legions of bargain hunters have suffered losses by buying stock market dips at the start of bear markets.
Making matters worse, they decimate their portfolios by continuing to buy all the way down, only to capitulate at the bottom.
This chart and commentary is from Elliott Wave International's April 2001 Financial Forecast:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
UBS Warns Stock Market “Rolling Over” – “Buy Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016′, it is time to “buy gold”.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market More Downtrend Ahead Or Volatile Bottoming Action Before Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,840, and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is now bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish. However, our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, January 14, 2016
The Scariest Commodity Market Chart on the Planet / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Rambus_Chartology
Excerpt from Tonight's Wednesday Report
The implications of this 60 year quarterly chart for the CRB index is staggering if it completes this impulse move down which so far has been working out beautifully. Again on this massive time scale you can see an unbalanced H&S top that measures out to just below the major support zone at the bottom of the chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market and the Mysterious Mr. VIX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
I must say that I continue to be amazed at how "CALM" things are in these equity markets in spite of the significant chart breakdowns that are now being seen in so many different sectors.
Look at how meager the move higher in the VIX has been especially compared to where it was back in August of last year during the "Flash Crash" that occurred back then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market Losing S&P 500 Long-Term Up Trend Line....Sentiment Rocking Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
So it wasn't the biggest break of all time, but for the first time in seven years we saw the S&P 500 close below the long-term, uptrend, weekly line. That level being approximately 1925. The loss on the S&P 500 keeps it in line with its fellow indexes in the small- and mid-cap stocks. They have led down and broke a week, or so, ago, but it's more important to see the biggest leader of them all, the S&P 500, break down. This should have turned the tide in the favor of the bears in a big way, but the key for them is to seize on the opportunity at hand, and take the bulls down even further to put some distance away from that rising trend line.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Dallas Fed's Kaplan: Market Swings May Not Reflect U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg's Michael McKee that the stock market swings may not reflect the underlying economy, and officials shouldn't overreact.
On Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>" this morning, Kaplan said: "This has been a very tough start to the year. It says a lot though about the turmoil in the markets in China....You've got to watch these market moves, but you've got to realize that they may or may not reflect what's going on with the underlying economy in the United States. I'd say you've got to watch it, and understand it. But not over read or over react."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Stock Market DeFANGed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Rubino
Yesterday’s bulletproof stocks, led by the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), are getting whacked today. Amazon is down 100 points from its high, 32 of those points coming today. Netflix is off by nearly 10%. Even Google, which really does seem bulletproof operationally, is down 3%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
How Precious Metals Investors Can Trump the Establishment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
As the presidential primaries quickly approach, the establishment is in panic mode over the prospect of losing control. It’s not just about Donald Trump. The political class, the “mainstream” media, Wall Street, and the central banking cartel are all losing credibility in the eyes of the public.
2016 is shaping up as the year of “We’re not gonna take it anymore” – in more ways than one. It’s an encouraging development for precious metals investors and sound money advocates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
President D. Trump State of the Union Address Jan 2017 - Video / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: N_Walayat
Whilst it's a long goodbye from President Obama this year kicked off by his 8th State of the Union Address. Instead find out what kind of State of the Union Address the Republican Front Runner, D Trump would deliver following an surprise election victory at the Novembers polls.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of $29, less than 1/3rd of just over a year ago at the time of the Scottish Independence mania that surrounded the Independence Referendum on the backs of an oil price of over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Why This Stocks Bull Market is Destined to Run for Much Longer Than Most Envision / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
By: Sol_Palha
"Every wall is a door." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
The markets are not free; corrections end at arbitrary points. In other words, the top players decide when the markets will correct and how far they will drop and or rise. This is why we focus on the trend and not absolute price targets as almost all free market forces have been removed. However, some individuals are still fixated to the idea of exact points, as opposed to the idea of viewing strong pullbacks as buying opportunities. This kind of mentality is what led these individuals to miss out on this 7-year bull market, and they look back sorrowfully wishing they had jumped in. What they forget is that they were doing the same thing today as they were doing yesterday; this is the reason this market is likely to trade much higher than most expect. Yes, the outlook certainly does not look rosy right now, and things look dire right now, but this has always been the case. Look at a past previous market disaster and see if anything has changed. As soon as the markets started to pullback, the Doctors of Doom started to blow their trumpets. Fast forward and the financial markets have not ended. This article is a perfect example of how the Media does nothing but fan the flames.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Summers: Global Economy Can't Withstand Four 2016 Fed Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." On the expectation of four rate hikes in 2016, Summers said: "I'd be surprised if the world economy can comfortably withstand four hikes. And I think that basically markets agree with me. And that's why despite the statements that are being made, markets aren't expecting four hikes."
Summers also said: "If you ask if there are risk that we're going to find ourselves in a situation within the next two years where policy is going to have to reverse, yes. I think that is a significant risk."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
SPX May Complete Wave 2 this Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is higher this morning, but the retracement appears to have been finished in the overnight futures. That means the potential pop this morning may not last. Whether it goes higher than yesterday morning’s high at 1947.30 is yet to be determined.
There was a brief retracement to 118.18 in the USD/JPY from its overnight low. However, this appears to be the work of the HFT computers which can turn on a dime.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
The Bearish Turn In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Dent
Large-cap stocks opened this morning in the green, seeming to offer a little reprieve from an ultra-violent start to 2016. Small- and mid-caps weren’t so lucky. They’re continuing to rip through fresh new lows.
This has been the toughest bull market and bubble to call, as many leading indicators that we have used in the past simply don’t work since central banks hijacked the markets after 2008. But with these major divergences continuing to build, and after many years of the Fed’s zero-percent interest rates, it seems we’re finally coming close to the end.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
This Current Spending Cycle Boom Will Not Continue / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In November of 2001 I was on an investment panel with three other people, including David Tice of Prudent Bear fame. He was riding high because, in addition to the recession of 2001, the markets had sold off after 9/11. His fund was doing well and he saw nothing but bad news for the economy and for him in the years ahead.Relying on demographics, I told him and the audience that America’s economy would rebound as consumers spent more, but would then suffer a terrible blow between 2008 and 2010.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address - Brilliant Bullshit! / Politics / US Politics
By: Mike_Shedlock
On Tuesday evening I watched president Obama's state of the union address. It was brilliant.
Obama rang all the bells, dotted all the i's, and attacked all the ghosts. At times, he even made sense.
All in all, it was a brilliant effort, possibly his best speech ever, even though his speech was essentially bullshit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Stock Market Investors Stay the Course! Which One? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Axel_Merk
Each time I hear someone suggest investors should ‘stay the course’ as markets tank, I fear such well-intentioned advice fails to adequately capture the predicament investors are in. Worse, the ‘stay the course’ mantra may set many investors up for failure.