Tuesday, July 13, 2021
Gold: High Time to Move Out of the Penthouse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold’s days in a glamorous apartment at the top of the PMs’ building are numbered. We’d better prepare for a rapid elevator ride to the first floor.
The Gold Miners
With the gold miners essentially running laps on the treadmill, the HUI Index, the GDX ETF, and the GDXJ ETF are working extremely hard but making little progress. And with the gambit resulting in ‘one step forward, two steps back,’ frustrating exhaustion has mining stocks questioning their every move. To that point, even though the trio transitioned from the conveyor belt to the stairs in recent weeks, history shows that slow climbs often culminate with elevator rides lower. Should we expect a different outcome this time around?
Gold ended the week in the green (up by $27.30), but the HUI Index was stuck in the red (down by 1.39). This is extremely noteworthy, as a similar divergence occurred at the end of May. For context, when the yellow metal rallied by $28.60 in a week back then, the HUI Index fell by 1.37 index points.
In the following weeks, the HUI Index declined by about 50 index points, while gold declined by about $150.
Tuesday, July 13, 2021
Climb Aboard! Silver Should Run Up To $38 In Next 30 Days / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Lorimer_Wilson
The U.S. Dollar recently corrected upward but now appears ready to continue its move downward and this should light a fire under the price of Silver and see it undergo a 30-day run to around $38 per troy ounce as illustrated in the chart below.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2021
How Will Remote Work Impact the U.K. economy? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Sumeet_Manhas
When the pandemic hit the U.K., millions of knowledge and office workers were forced to work from home. Regarding productivity and work/life balance, remote work has proved to be a success in many instances. The consequences for the overall economy may not be so favourable if remote working becomes a permanent arrangement.
Historically, national-scale crises have a tendency to revolutionise societies and the way that we work. In the fourteenth century, for example, the Black Death plagued (literally) Europe. Approximately one-third of Europe’s population died from the plague. As a result, many historians believe that labour-saving devices such as the printing press were developed to adapt to the lack of workers. Some historians have also theorised that the Black Death led to the expeditions into “new lands” that occurred in the decades that followed. Perhaps travelling on a boat to parts unknown seemed relatively safe following a pandemic that killed around 25 million people.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2021
Why Helium Stocks Are Set To Soar in 2021 / Companies / Energy Resources
By: Submissions
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Peak of the Fake Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Michael_Pento
We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit margins. The economy has enjoyed peak fiscal and monetary stimulus and those tailwinds will soon become strong headwinds. Also, peak tax relief is now in the rear-view mirror; and higher taxes are around the corner. Finally, peak asset valuations have arrived and the associated wealth effect is now waning.Confirming this view is a series of slowing economic data--a reduction in the rate of change in growth and inflation. For now, this is not a crisis or a recession; but is set to become one next year. Here are some facts and data:
Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures were virtually unchanged. Despite that fact that job openings are at all-time high, at the same time, initial jobless claims are running at a level that is 75% above/higher than the pre-pandemic level. This begs the question: why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?
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Monday, July 12, 2021
An Investing Truth: Roughly 80% of Stocks Are “Duds” / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Stephen_McBride
Today I’m spilling the beans on something very important. It’s a “truth” about investing almost nobody understands. This truth explains why most investors struggle to make any real money in the stock market… while a few achieve life-changing gains.
The truth is: most stocks are horrible investments. Let me show you what I mean, and how you can turn this truth into an edge that’ll let you beat 99% of investors.
Monday, July 12, 2021
Stock Market Probing for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has likely reached the end of an intermediate phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, July 12, 2021
Global Catastrophe Worse than Pandemic to Hit 2025, Solar Coronal Mass Ejection Super Storm Black Swan / Politics / CMS
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So the inevitable pandemic in our lifetime that most of the world including the whole of Europe and North America were totally unprepared that had moronic government scientists spouting in the early months that the general public should not wear masks which was due to lack of PPE stock, whilst prime ministers and presidents laughed it off as something that would magically disappear before Easter, instead has had a severe economic and social impact on all of our lives this past year. However given the fast materialisation of vaccines should soon start diminishing in significance of future impact.
So what else is out there lurking in the near mists of time about to have en equal if not greater impact on our everyday lives?
Asteroid impact? Inevitable yes, for instance Apopthis (named after the Egyptian snake god of chaos) is due for a very close rendezvous with Earth in April 2029, which is one of thousands that cross Earths orbit, but the range of probabilities span decades to tens of thousands of years, so not something that can be assumed to be definitely imminent in terms of a catastrophic impact.
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Monday, July 12, 2021
England V Italy - Euro 2020 Final - Fans React To Losing On Penalty Shootout - UEFA 2021 / Politics / Social Issues
By: N_Walayat
England ALWAYS lose at Penalties and so it was for the finals of the Euro 2020, 2021. This is how the penalty shootout went down in our house as the inevitable happened.
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Why Amazon, Google and Netflix Are Fighting Over this Rare Gas / Companies / Energy Resources
By: Submissions
Big Tech may be in for a major crisis in the coming months, all because of a global shortage virtually nobody’s talking about.
And it has nothing to do with the shortages we’ve seen worldwide in everything from computer chips to lumber to chicken wings.
This supply squeeze runs far deeper and has the potential to crush major blue-chip companies if the situation doesn’t dramatically improve soon.
That’s because Big Tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, and Netflix all depend on this one gas to keep their servers up and running around the clock.
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Saturday, July 10, 2021
US Home Buying Trends Showing Signs Of An Extreme Bubble Setup – Is It About To Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to explore the recent data and setup related to the current Housing market bubble, this, Part II of our research, will continue to highlight the similarities we are seeing in the current market climate to the 2005~2008 Housing/Credit market event that crashed the markets over 15 years ago. Additionally, we’ll also highlight some of the efforts the US Federal Reserve and global central banks have taken to support the recovering global economy over the past 15+ years. Are they pushing the markets to extremes and will they be prepared for a reversion event if one takes place?
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the Supply/Demand equilibrium function and the four laws of the Supply/Demand equation. It is important to understand that all price exploration/valuation functions operate within the boundaries of these Supply/Demand functions. Buyers and Sellers are always operating within these boundaries – even if they don’t know it.
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Saturday, July 10, 2021
Escaping The United States May Be Leading To An Extreme Market Bubble Setup / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few years have seen housing prices skyrocket as Flippers, Speculators and Traditional Buyers jump into home buying or selling to relocate to different areas throughout the US. One interesting facet of this phenomenon recently hit NBC news over the past few days related to the super hot Boise Idaho and Coeur D’Alene Idaho market. Home prices in the Boise area have skyrocketed higher by over 30% in just 12 months. In Coeur D’Alene, home prices have risen over 85% in the past 12 months.
Is a Supply/Demand Measure Distorted By Recent Buying Activity – And What’s Next?
My concern is that the post-COVID buying/relocating trends have pushed the Supply/Demand pricing factors well past the equilibrium. Simply put, the moratoriums and policies related to home renters and homeowners throughout the COVID-19 crisis have created a supply crisis at a time when many people had the capabilities to sell and relocate into different areas of the US at the same time. Diminishing supply with hyper-active demand pushes price levels upward and to the left, as illustrated on the Supply/Demand chart below.
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Saturday, July 10, 2021
WD MY Book DUO Drives Lottery - What Disks are Inside - Red or Blue - 28tb Model / ConsumerWatch / Computing
By: HGR
What Drives are inside a Mybook DUO is it a red or blue find out as I open up a 28TB My Book DUO enclosure and find out.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).
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Friday, July 09, 2021
FOMC Minutes: A Confirmation of Fed’s Hawkish Shift? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC minutes were… mixed. The discussion between hawks and doves continues giving gold no comfort. Who will gain the upper hand?Yesterday, the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting in June. Investors who counted on some clear clues are probably disappointed, as the minutes can please both hawks and doves. Indeed, the report showed that the Fed officials are divided on their inflation outlook and the appropriate course of action. The dovish side believes that the recent high inflation readings are transitory and they will ease in the not-so-distant future, while the hawkish camp worries that the upward pressure on prices could continue next year:
Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, but several participants remarked that they anticipated that supply chain limitations and input shortages would put upward pressure on prices into next year. Several participants noted that, during the early months of the reopening, uncertainty remained too high to accurately assess how long inflation pressures will be sustained.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Gold: The Tapering Clock Is Ticking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the FED increasingly hawkish and the USDX rising from the ashes, don’t be fooled by the recent upswing in gold. The bears are getting ready.
With the reflation trade getting cut off at the knees, the only asset class not feeling the pain is U.S. equities. However, while shorts capitulate and send the U.S. 10-Year Treasury higher (and the yield lower), the flattening of the U.S. yield curve screams of a potential recession. However, while the development is bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, investors are putting the cart before the horse.
To explain, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield languishes in its depressed state, J.P. Morgan told clients on Jul. 6 that the Treasury benchmark is roughly three standard deviations below its model-implied fair value. For context, J.P. Morgan believes that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield should trade at roughly 1.60%, and, given the three-sigma underperformance, standard normal probabilities imply a roughly 99.9% chance that the Treasury benchmark will move higher over the medium term.
Friday, July 09, 2021
5 Little-Known Ways Businesses Waste Money / Companies / SME
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Most companies are often so focused on making money that they forget about the importance of saving it.If you’re struggling with a small profit margin, you may need to make various cutbacks to improve your company’s financial security.
Poor cash flow management can result in many organisations closing for good. Don’t follow in their footsteps by learning about the five little-known ways businesses waste money.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
EURUSD Drops Below 1.20 As Dollar Shorts Are Trimmed / / US Dollar
By: S_N_Chatterjee
Activity is back in full swing in the forex market after the latest FED meeting, which has stirred all major currency pairs, including the EURUSD. Even though the pair has been trading up since the beginning of April, the order flow shifted towards the bearish side as interest rates are expected to rise as soon as 2022 in the US, due to a faster economic recovery and robust inflation figures.
A weakening US Dollar for the entire 2020 had been a supportive factor for the global economy, at a time when the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic had started. However, experts at Axia Investments believe that reverse in Dollar weakness will have the opposite effect, acting as a tightening.
Thursday, July 08, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Why U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies Could Skyrocket / Companies / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
"U.S. bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and all of 2020 were above the 13-year average"An April 17 article headline on the website of National Public Radio says:
U.S Economy Looking Good As Spending Jumps In March
And, on April 29, The New York Times said:
Americans' spending on durable goods -- cars and furniture and other goods meant to last a long time -- rose at a stunning 41.4 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Considering that the economy is "looking good," economic observers might conclude that a wave of corporate bankruptcies is of little concern.
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