Sunday, December 08, 2019

Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.

Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.

And so now 2 1/2 years on the Lib Dems look set to retake the Sheffield Hallam seat form a chaotic Labour party. Especially given the close result in 2017. That saw Labour winning the seat by just over 1000 votes.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's made a lot of great calls right here on this podcast this year and it's great to have him back on with us. Greg, thanks for the time again and welcome. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great, Mike. My pleasure, anytime. You do a great job, so I'm always happy to contribute.

Mike Gleason: Well, it's great to get people like you on as frequently as we have. We're very fortunate, so thank you. Well, Greg as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon, the stock markets sold off yesterday and we got a rally in metals, this morning is as if by magic in the equity markets are levitating and metals are being sold.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Analysis is the theory that price relates all news, fundamental and correlative future expectations into current and recent price activity.  It is the theory that price is the ultimate indicator and that charts paint a very clear picture for those individuals that are capable of understanding the message that is being presented. 

In this research article, we are going to highlight the technical analysis components that we believe are painting a very clear picture that an “early warning” signal is flashing very brightly in the US and Global markets right now.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

We all know that the gold and silver Commitments of Traders are very extended and at levels of commercial net shorts and large spec net longs that tend to be in place at tops in the metals. Well, the metals topped in the summer, so what does that tell us?

For one thing it tells us that bull market rules are different from bear market rules as per this post from August as gold was topping.

Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders for This Week

Listen sports fans, I just call ’em as I see ’em. The Commitments of Traders for gold is as extended as it has been lately and open interest is significant. Speculators are all-in here and while we note that bull market rules are different than bear market rules, extended is extended. Gold is vulnerable to pullback by this measure, especially since the gold price is in the target zone we laid out months ago.

Saturday, December 07, 2019

Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits. / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tuition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!

All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!

AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!

Saturday, December 07, 2019

Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy, fake even!

For instance pretending that Tory MP's are asking them to vote for the Lib Dems to prevent Labour from winning a close Lib Dem / Labour marginal seat as is the case in the Sheffield Hallam Constituency that is literally seeing a barrage of leaflets and letters posted every day.

However, it is highly probable that for this constituency the Lib Dems do look set to win the seat from Labour as a consequence of the disaster that was their MP for the past 2 1/2 years. But the Lib Dems are making a huge mistake if they think the voters are too stupid to see through their fake election leaflets because NOT TORY MP is going write letters instructing voters to VOTE for the Lib Dems!

Friday, December 06, 2019

You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we noted the bullish setup for 2020.

Macro developments, one way or another will tend to favor Gold. There isn’t a realistic scenario that isn’t Gold bullish.

Note the comments from various Fed-heads last week. They are laying the groundwork to target higher than 2% inflation and won’t consider raising rates anytime soon.

And if they have to resume cutting rates Gold will obviously move higher.  

On the technical side, GDX and GDXJ are in solid uptrends and trading within huge long-term bases.

Friday, December 06, 2019

The End of Apple Has Begun / Companies / Apple

By: Stephen_McBride

When Apple CEO Tim Cook took the stage this September, nobody expected the shocking news he was about to deliver...

He unveiled the new iPhone 11—the most advanced phone Apple has ever made.

But it was not the triple-lens camera and lustrous finishes that stole the show. It was the phone’s price tag.

For the first time ever, Apple cut its iPhone price.

As I’ll explain, Apple made this move out of desperation… and it may well spell the beginning of the end of Apple’s run as a dominant company.

Apple is not a gambling company, but have worked a lot with gambling companies, read more and find some of them on FS Monster's casino list. But first, let's look at what Apple really is - a phone company.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Why Every Investor Should Be Politically Flexible / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Jared_Dillian

Things used to be so simple.

You buy a stock, the government cuts taxes, the stock goes up.

Actually, things still are that simple.

And yet vastly more complex. We cut taxes in 2017, but future tax increases—large ones—are likely.

The Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates because it is told to by the president.

Friday, December 06, 2019

How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? / Commodities / Environmental Issues

By: OilPrice_Com

You may think (or hope) that in your daily life you don’t need to worry about unknowingly eating or otherwise ingesting crude oil or any of its many, many petrochemical byproducts. But you would be wrong. And not just a little wrong--very, very wrong. Petroleum-based substances are in all kinds of innocuous-seeming things that we willingly put into our bodies. Even though petrochemicals are not technically (or really any other adverb you want to insert here) edible, we eat quite a lot of them.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Climate Change

By: N_Walayat

Where in a climate emergency that demands both cutting back carbon production and increasing carbon capture. In which respect one of the best mechanisms to achieve this emergency objective are TREES!

However, devoid of commonsense, several years ago the Labour controlled Sheffield City council embarked on a plan to fells tens of thousands of Sheffield's largest trees, typically 200 times the volume of replacement saplings. Literally millions of tons of carbon have been unnecessarily released by the Labour Council felling Sheffield's biggest trees that soak up vehicle pollution and releasing oxygen into the streets, which is why they were planted in the first place typically over a 100 years ago to help clean up Sheffield's toxic air environment of that time which given the volume of traffic remains just as toxic now as it was then.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.

1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.

2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Gold prices pushed sharply higher on Tuesday but have stalled ever since. Has the recovery rally completed? I think it has.

Leave it to Trump to go and say something that causes the equity markets to print a two-day drop that wipes out more than a week of gains. But the tone in the markets might be changing.

The US president went from saying that the trade deal might get delayed until after the elections on Tuesday to saying that talks with China are going “very well” on Wednesday. His shift in tone carried through the markets with the S&P 500 recovering and posting on a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart yesterday.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Precious Metals Ratio Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

I can remember there were times during the PM complex bull market before 2011 that sometimes the PM metals would rally but the PM stocks were very weak. Then there were times when the PM stock would rise while the PM metals moved very little. At the time of those occurrences it was bewildering as common sense suggested they should all move together and the stronger the metals moved so should the PM stocks. I don’t have a good answer for the bifurcation at times only that it can happen.

This first chart for tonight is the old ratio combo chart which has the Gold:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Going all the way back to 1996 you can see that gold outperformed the XAU in parabolic fashion until the top in January of 2016 which lasted about 20 years. When that 20 year parabolic arc gave way in early 2016 that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU.

Friday, December 06, 2019

What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Through the first half of 2019, silver significantly underperformed gold. Put another way, gold gained relative to silver – culminating in the gold:silver ratio registering a 27-year high of 95:1.

That market signal was received by the mining industry. Since there are few primary silver producers, and those that do mine silver also typically mine gold and some base metals, precious metals miners had an incentive to invest more into gold production and less into silver.

Precious metals analyst Adam Hamilton wrote in a recent commentary, “As silver wasted away in recent years, its bombed-out prices heavily impaired silver mines’ ability to generate operating cash flows and profits. The silver miners were forced to adapt and shifted their focus and capital into adding gold production rather than boosting silver output.”

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 point to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further

The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

When gold’s price reached $850 per ounce in January 1980, it seemed as if nothing would stop the runaway train that was headed straight for $1000 per ounce. But it was stopped, and began sliding downhill quickly.

By June 1982, two and one-half years later, gold’s price had declined by sixty-five percent. At close to $300 per ounce, the price of gold seemed farther away from the $1000 mark than ever before.

At $300 per ounce, the eventual low for gold of $250 was a short distance away. But that downside price did not come until seventeen years later, in late 1999. As far as $1000 gold is concerned, that did not occur until September 2009, almost thirty years after gold peaked at $850 in January 1980.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.