Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other / Personal_Finance / Virtual Reality

By: Submissions

Monday, December 02, 2019

The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Teaser: Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. Yet we’re supposed to make perfectly rational decisions – so, how do we cope with the unknown? We tell narratives, and form our decisions around them! Let’s explore the narratives in the financial markets for it reveals their importance to the gold market.

Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. There are not only many known unknowns in the world, but the same can’t be said of unknown unknowns. We simply do not known what we don’t know. In other words, the problem is not risk. The notion of risk implies that we can compute probability. This is what the mainstream economists assume: we know the odds, so there is a single optimizing solution to each problem. But the real issue is that we do not know the probabilities, because we even do not know how the world works. You see, the probability applies in a casino but not in a real world. You are certainly aware of substantial difference between roulette or weather forecasting, and the scope of new inventions or the prospect of war, elections or the asset prices. As Keynes wrote (at least once we agree with him), “About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.”

Monday, December 02, 2019

Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As the Thanksgiving holiday passes, traders should begin to understand that liquidity and volume in the US and global markets typically begin to diminish over the next 30 to 45+ days.  Typically, between mid-November and early January, trading volumes weaken dramatically as institutional and retail investors move away from the markets in preparation for year-end celebrations and tax planning.

Historically, the month of November is vastly more positive than negative in terms of overall price action.  Over the past 21 years in the NQ, a total of 15 months have resulted in an average of +122.75 pts whereas only 6 months have resulted in an average of -194.83 pts.  This suggests the downside price moves, when they happen, are nearly 40% larger than the average upside price move for November.  So far for 2019, the NQ is +320.25 pts for November 2019.

Monday, December 02, 2019

A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker / Personal_Finance / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Monday, December 02, 2019

See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon / Politics / Social Issues

By: James_Quinn

And if the cloud bursts thunder in your ear
You shout and no one seems to hear
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

Brain Damage, Pink Floyd

And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

Brain Damage, Pink Floyd

Monday, December 02, 2019

Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.

Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Stock Market Where Are We?  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tutition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!

All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!

AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My first article in this UK general election series concluded in a core forecast of seats for the Conservative party based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections - UK house prices momentum.

The remaining articles in this series in the countdown to voting day (December 12th) aim to fine tune my core expectation towards a final seats per party forecast.

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

In the 1986 classic ‘Platoon’, Charlie Sheen’s character Chris Taylor tells everyone that he dropped out of college to serve in the Vietnam War. This sets him apart from the other grunts and makes Taylor seem noble and patriotic, giving up school to go fight in a war. But his credo is soon shot down by a black soldier nick-named King, played by Keith David, who tells him: 

“You got to be rich in the first place to think like that. Everybody know, the poor are always being f&$#8! over by the rich. Always have, always will.”

Thirty-five years later, King’s world-weary cynicism is just as relevant. The rich are getting richer, inequality is on the rise, and the middle class, which since the 1950s has been the backbone of the US economy, is shrinking. 

Saturday, November 30, 2019

When Fed Says That Everything Is Fine, Smart People Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed has published this month the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. Generally speaking, the level of vulnerabilities in the financial system has moved little since the publication of the May edition of the report. The most of the US central banks’ observations are reassuring: investor appetite for risk generally appears to have returned to a level in the middle of its historical range, while the core of the financial sector appears resilient, with lever­age low and funding risk limited relative to the levels of recent decades.

What is very important in light of the causes of the Great Recession, the largest U.S. banks remain strongly capitalized, while household borrowing remains at a modest level relative to income, as one can see in the chart below. Isn’t that splendid news? Isn’t this time different? It’s bad news for the gold market?

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation / Politics / Conspiracy Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

There is a burgeoning conspiracy theory that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in his jail cell.

Although it’s not really burgeoning, is it? Most people really believe this. I think once a majority of people believe a conspiracy theory, it becomes fact.

Out of all conspiracy theories, this one is certainly plausible—Epstein potentially had a lot of damaging information on a lot of rich, powerful people.

Saturday, November 30, 2019

How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: Anika_Walayat

This video shows how to clip your Budgie / Parakeets flight feathers to stop them from flying away. Budgies have 10 flight feathers, the more you trim of them you bird will have a lesser ability to fly both for your birds safety in not flying to mirrors or windows or worse escape. Also so that you can take your budgie it outdoors for fun in the garden or local park without it flying away.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Big systemically important banks could be in failure mode. A small group of big Western banks are in deep trouble. The officials might keep it all secret, working feverishly behind the curtains to patch their myriad holes with paper. These SIFI banks are likely major recipients of USFed overnight aid in the form of Repurchase (REPO) and Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) activity, plus gigantic hidden funny money infusions. Beware the advent of chaos, with lost control. Possibly the main markets will remain tame under tight controls, while the precious metals prices zoom to multiples higher. Always keep in mind then when the POMO volume rises significantly, it means that QE has returned. When the volume is tremendous, it means that Infinite QE is here. Since Chairman Powell admitted in May that QE was a permanent feature with monetary policy, we must conclude that we are at the doorstep of Infinite QE Forever. Thus the Gold price will be required to double and the Silver price triple. All in time. It is written; it will be done.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs / Companies / IPOs

By: Stephen_McBride

Justin Spittler : Ferrari isn’t used to losing.

Its $250,000+ sports cars are the epitome of luxury, style, and exclusivity. When you see one cruising down the street, most people can’t help but stop and stare.

Ferrari started as a racing company. Founder Enzo Ferrari handcrafted finely tuned speed machines whose sole purpose was to go faster than any other car could.

Winning is in Ferrari’s blood. It has won a record 238 Grand Prix races. Yet recently, Ferrari looked like a loser.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Money manager Adrian Day looks at three junior resource companies whose stocks are down significantly in the past few months, and attributes some of this to tax-loss selling. He also lists a handful of companies he believes are best buys right now.

Vista Gold Corp. (VGZ:NYSE.MKT; VGZ:TSX, US$0.59) has published an updated prefeasibility study (PFS) on its Mt Todd project in the Northern Territories in Australia, the largest undeveloped gold project in that country. The revisions to the old PFS include updating both the gold price (upward to $1,350/ounce) and the Australian dollar (downward to US$0.70). Both of these revisions help boost the returns on the project, as did other improvements, including on gold recoveries. Using the sensitivity table for today's prices, the project has a net present value (NPV, with 5% discount) of $1.15 billion and an international rate of return (IRR) of over 30%.

Friday, November 29, 2019

We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes.
In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature:

1. a large wealth gap

2. the absence of effective monetary policy

3. a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.

He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes.

Friday, November 29, 2019

How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales / ConsumerWatch / Amazon

By: HGR

Amazon Black Friday Sale has already been going for a week with more deals likely to be added today. However, before you rush to click the buy button, understand that many of the sales are FAKES, where items on sale during Black Friday have recently sold for a lower price!

The good news is there is a way to spot the genuine bargains which is the focus of this video across a number of product categories. So watch the video before you shop for how to spot the real vs fake sales on Amazon.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Central Banks’ Gold Buying and Repatriation Spree / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks’ purchases and repatriations of gold have caught our attention once again. In October, Serbia’s central bank bought 9 tons of gold, following in the footsteps of many other central banks that have been adding to their gold reserves recently, including Russia, Hungary, and Poland.

Nine tons may seem to be a modest purchase, but the transaction was worth $438 million at $1,503 an ounce. And it has raised Serbia’s gold reserves to 30.4 tons, constituting about 10 percent of the country’s total reserves. Importantly, the National Bank of Serbia could carry on with its purchases, as it got clear message from the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic to continue boosting gold reserves in order to be better prepared for the economic crisis: “I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,” Vucic told the press.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Another Precious Metals’ Reversal Coming Right Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold reversed yesterday, and so did the rest of the precious metal sector. Mining stocks and – what’s important – silver showed strength relative to gold and rallied even more than gold. Silver’s strength is important because it indicates that we are already in the second half of the short-term upswing in the precious metals market. If there only was a tool that would provide us with a more precise time prediction… Oh wait, there is one. And it just worked perfectly yesterday.