Thursday, November 28, 2019
Stock Market 100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure. This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction. These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.
The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Don’t Look for Investing Advice in the Media / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Jared_Dillian
When I was a trader at Lehman Brothers, I was told not to talk to the media under any circumstances. If a reporter calls and says, “I’m so-and-so, and I’m from The Wall Street Journal,” you hang up. Click.
There doesn’t seem to be a good relationship between the traders and the reporters who cover them! I wonder why that is?
You might have heard about the incident at the Des Moines Register a month or two ago. A young man went to a football game and held up a sign on camera, asking for money for beer, as a joke. He got $1 million. He donated it—to a children’s hospital.
A reporter at the Des Moines Register decided to do a story on the young man. He dug up some old racist tweets from this guy—the guy that donated $1 million to a children’s hospital—and published them, in an attempt to “cancel” him.
Thursday, November 28, 2019
Why You Should Buy Trailer Park Stocks / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
10,000 baby boomers retire every day.
But retirement won’t mean endless rounds of golf or trips to Tuscany for a lot of these folks, who are now 55–75 years old.
In fact, retirement will lower the living standards of 40% of boomers, according to The Wall Street Journal. That translates to a lifestyle downgrade for 15 million American households.
It gets worse: One in three boomers has zero money saved for retirement. Zilch. Nothing. And 6 in 10 have less than $10,000.
Then there’s the debt problem. The average boomer is $99,000 in debt, according to the Wharton School.
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.
Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.
Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.
One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Amazon Black Friday External USB Hard Drive REAL Bargains! 8TB WD My Book... / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun! And on searching for some REAL computer tech bargains, the category that most stands out for REAL price cuts to rock bottom prices are for the external USB hard drives that have been typically been cut to their lowest prices ever! As this video illustrates, 6TB, 8TB, WD drives are trading at new extreme low prices on Amazon, which given price history then these low prices are unlikely to hold beyond Black Friday.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
$EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Stock-Markets / Canada
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly the EWC instrument inception date was 3/12/1996. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large and mid-sized companies in Canada. This is of course reflected in the price. The best Elliott Wave reading of the long term cycles in $EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF must presume some lower prices that did not exist prior to the ETF fund inception date.
Shown on the monthly chart, the bullish cycle from all time lows is believed to have ended in November 2007. This is mostly in line with many other broad based ETF’s and indices that ended larger cycles near that time. Likewise the steep pullback lower into the March 2009 lows replicated the pullbacks in other ETF & indices instruments. This pullback was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle up from the all time lows. The analysis and commentary continues below the EWC Monthly chart.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Stock Market Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019. The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside. Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
What Can You Do With a Finance Degree? / Personal_Finance / Education
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Want to Identify Market Trends? Watch Elliott Wave Analysis at Work / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
How it anticipated a multi-year crash in one of the world's biggest commodity markets
The large fowl we call "Turkeys" were given that name by the British, who thought the bird came from the country of Turkey. Truth is, turkeys are native to North America. And yet, the question no one will ever hear around the dinner table on Thanksgiving is, "Who wants gravy on their North America?"
This story recalls another fallacy -- or fowl-acy! -- that likewise persists in the face of facts to the contrary; namely, the mainstream financial theory known as "fundamental market analysis." The notions behind this widely held belief go like this:
Financial market prices are driven by external events, or "fundamentals," which can include crop-destroying weather patterns, political unrest, earnings reports, crop data, supply and demand numbers and so on.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Energy Sector to Bounce Off Cycle Bottom into 2020 / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: readtheticker
Low prices fix low prices, and eventually the shorts will be forced to cover and buy back their shares and force prices higher. This sector is 'this close' to such and event. Both Hurst cycles and Wyckoff supply and demand action are warming up to the bullish side for the energy sector (XLE). This is on the back of growing inflation fears. Inflation sourced from wage growth in the US and world wide central bankers (Japan [BOJ], Europe [ECB] and the USA [FED]) printing money at the same time. You should note this has never happened before, all three at the same time, printing. Yes, the energy sector has suffered from the lower oil prices but soon the shorts will have to judge how much lower energy stocks can go, as you can see the SPDR Energy Etf (XLE) has been unable to get below $50. Demand is present. What to do? Watch for significant Wyckoff demand foot prints to see price test upper resistance (sign of strength), and then take action from a strong change of character.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
This Artificial Economic Boom Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away.
One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt can be permanent. We don’t use that specific word, of course, but it’s what we do and is why government debt keeps rising.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).
Gold Silver Ratio
The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
How Income Investors Can Play the $500 Billion 5G Boom / Companies / Telecoms
By: Robert_Ross
Do you have a cellphone?
If so, it probably runs on a 4G network.
A decade ago, telecom companies spent over $200 billion on the cell towers needed for 4G.
That’s a lot of money. But it’s small potatoes compared to the $500 billion they’re spending on the towers to upgrade to 5G.
“5G,” as you’ve probably heard, is short for fifth-generation wireless network. This new technology will let phones and computers communicate 1,000 times faster than 4G—enabling everything from remote surgery to self-driving cars.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday 2019 Laptop Deals, and Avoid FAKE Sales / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun!
Here we show how to spot the difference between FAKE and REAL Black Friday sales with our focus on spotting Laptop deals, REAL deals and not just sellers trying to get rid of over priced old stock.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
Preconditions for BRIC-style growth in Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar and post-Cold War era, the Philippines could have been an economic success story. Yet, the opportunity was missed between the mid-'60s and mid-2010s. In the Duterte era, the country is back on track, but BRIC-style growth is needed to overcome the legacy of past policy mistakes.In the postwar era, the Philippines was one of the expected economic success stories in Southeast Asia. The country was positioned for rapid growth.
Or so it was thought.
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