Sunday, October 28, 2018
The Stock Market’s Volatility is Very High. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
What a week for the U.S. stock market. Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that “the world is ending” because trendline support has been broken.
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Sunday, October 28, 2018
Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.
The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.
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Sunday, October 28, 2018
Kitchin Cycle Warned of Stok Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
Here are some names of cycle masters: Kondratieff, Dewey, Kitchin, to name just a few. Cycles are in all matters of life, including the SP500.
From Wiki
.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British businessman and statistician. Analyzing American and English interest rates and other data, Kitchin found evidence for a short business cycle of about 40 months.[1] His publications led to other business cycle theories by later economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter"..
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Sunday, October 28, 2018
7 Insurance Policies That You Never Knew Existed / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Dylan_Moran
Every good financial management strategy wouldn’t be complete without insurance. Life is full of uncertainties, after all, and good insurance plans can give you a sense of security and protection from unplanned situations that could easily put a dent to your finances.
You probably have a few insurance plans under your name to secure your biggest assets: your house, car and health. But did you know that there are other insurance policies that you probably don’t know about but might come handy in the future?
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
In Search of a Bearish Bitcoin Trigger / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
A large asset manager has decided to offer Bitcoin trading to its institutional investors. Bitcoin shot up around the announcement but reversed course and erased most of the move up. The currency has stayed subdued since. This could mean that the market is getting boring. It could also mean that investors and traders are taking a breather before a more decisive move.
Traditional asset managers are not necessarily averse to Bitcoin. It turns out that Fidelity Investments, one of the largest asset managers in the world, is interested in providing hedge funds with access to the Bitcoin market. In an article on the Wall Street Journal website, we read:
Fidelity Investments said it will store and trade bitcoin for hedge funds and other professional investors, becoming one of the first Wall Street giants to step into this volatile corner of the financial world.
(…)
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Gold Upleg Fuel Abounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage. They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns. The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning. Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel.
October’s outperformance by gold and gold stocks has been impressive. As of Wednesday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index had plunged 8.8% month-to-date. That heavy selling was led by the market-darling mega tech stocks, pummeling the NASDAQ down 11.7% MTD! Stock investors are starting to pay the piper for getting far too complacent in bubble-valued markets, the reckoning is underway.
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
Stock Investor Batten Down The Hatches, Mates! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Get ready for some crazy price trends in the US markets as investors react to earnings, housing data and overall re-evaluations of future objectives. As we warned on September 17 with this post and on October 1 with this post, we believed the future Q3 earnings weeks and the 2~4 weeks leading into the US Mid-term elections could be very volatile. We even suggested a 5~8% price correction was expected to start after September 21~24.
What we did not expect is the Federal Reserve to raise rates, again, on September 26 – just days before the Q3 Earnings season actually started. Our price models for the Fed Funds Rates have suggested that any move above 2% FFR would put pricing pressures on homes and other assets. This research we completed was first published in 2015 here. This was the first time we illustrated our Fed Funds Rate Adaptive Learning modeling systems results. The chart within this article that shows that our model expected the US Fed to begin increasing interest rates in 2014~2015 to levels near 0.75~1.25. From that point, a gradual increase towards 2.0 was expected prior to 2018~19. Our price modeling system then expected a decrease in the FFR from 2.0% to between 1.5~1.75%.
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
Difficult Market Spooks Stock Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been following the news cycles for many months regarding the prognosticators that believe “the sky is falling” in the global markets and we find it interesting to see how quickly the bulls turn to bears when the market rotates 4~5% or more. The reality is that in traditional market price rotation, a 3~5% market price rotation is a very healthy component of price advance or price declines.
When we consider the price swings within the SPY from early 2017 till now, we are looking at a total of at least 18% total Low to High price swings with a number of large 6~8% price rotations and many 2~4% smaller price rotations. The natural rotation of price, as Fibonacci price theory teaches, is that price will always attempt to establish a new higher high or lower low in the process of extended trends. This means that price is always attempting to find and establish some new price high or low by rotating/trending within existing/past high or low price levels.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
US Stocks Are Nowhere Near a Bubble Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Stephen_McBride
“This is the longest bull market in US stocks ever” they say.Technically, they are right. This bull broke the all-time record formerly held by the 1990–2000 rally.
As I’m sure you remember, that one ended with a historic 80% crash in the Nasdaq that wiped out millions of overeager investors.
If you’re troubled by this, you’ll want to read the rest of this article carefully.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
Stronger Dollar is Bullish Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The US$ index is breaking higher. Its trading at 96.41 as we pen this.
A daily close above 96.61 marks a new 52-week high and puts the dollar in position to eventually retest its bull market high at 104.
If this strength continues then the relief rally in precious metals could be over.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
Four Online Games You Should Play In 2018 / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Dylan_Moran
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Friday, October 26, 2018
The USMCA Quest for ‘America First' World Trade / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dan Steinbock.President Trump seeks to redefine all major free trade agreements on the basis of U.S. economic and geopolitical leverage.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
Top Trading: How to Trade Like the Pros / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
It's becoming more open than ever before and while it may have once only been open to certain clientele several years ago, a lot more people seem to be getting in on the trading act.
Of course, through things like the MT4 demo trading account, this is quite understandable. After all, it wasn't too long that software like this was accessible to the Average Joe, and there's no doubt that it makes life as a trader a whole lot easier.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Rome vs Brussels. Will That Battle Benefit Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?
Only One Notch Above Being Junk
Italian drama continues. On Friday, Moody’s, one of the most significant rating agencies in the world, downgraded the Italian credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3. It means that Italy’s local and foreign-currency bonds are now only one notch above junk territory. The move was not surprising, as well as the reasons behind this decision:
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
U.S. Shale Oil Has A Glaring Problem / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices are down a bit, but are still close to multi-year highs. That should leave the shale industry flush with cash. However, a long list of U.S. shale companies are still struggling to turn a profit.
A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and the Sightline Institute detail the "alarming volumes of red ink" within the shale industry.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Stock Market Sky is Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Savage
For nine years now every time we have an intermediate degree correction the perma bears crawl out of the woodwork and start screaming the sky is falling. If you had listened to these people you would have missed one of the greatest bull markets in history.
We had one of the most destructive bear markets in history in 2008/09. It stands to reason it should generate one of the strongest bull markets. As I’ve noted many times in the past, markets act like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction the harder the reaction in the opposite direction.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Intermediate Term Outlook Bullish on CAT Despite Current Correction / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: Mike_Paulenoff
About 11 months ago, I told our members to watch for a continued rally in Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). The stock had exploded to the upside after breaking above 6-7 year resistance at 112-117.
As it resided at just above 136, I wrote: "CAT still looks like it has unfinished biz on the upside into the 145-146 area next."
I noted that while CAT certainly was overbought, "my work considers momentum to be in a 'healthy overbought' condition, rather than a divergent overbought condition. Usually a healthy overbought condition suggests that higher-highs will be forthcoming prior to the onset of a significant correction."
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
UK Average Mortgage Fee Highest in Over Five Years / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Remortgage activity is currently high as borrowers seek to get the best deal after the base rate rise. As a result, many providers are trying to look attractive as possible. However, although many lenders are reducing rates to appeal to remortgagors, this trend is not being seen for arrangement fees. In fact, the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that average mortgage fees* are on the rise, increasing by £15 since August to stand at £1,005 this month – the highest average recorded in more than five years.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Predictive Price Modeling Shows New Price Highs Are Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary adaptive learning tools, specifically our adaptive predictive price modeling tool, is clearly illustrating higher price rotation over the next few weeks with a strong potential that the US equities markets will break to be all-time highs near Dec 2018 or early 2019.
Our research team has spent more than a decade studying the markets and developing specialized tools to assist us in understanding current and future price activities. This one tool, the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling system is one of the more dynamic tools we have ever created. We can ask it what it believes is the highest probability future outcome many weeks, months or years in advance. Today, we are sharing with you what we believe will be a strong upside price rotation to close out 2018 and lead into 2019.
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Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Sentiment Is The Most Important Factor To Focus On in Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.
During the six years I have been actively writing on Seeking Alpha, 30,000 of you have trusted me enough to begin following my work, as I just hit the 30,000-follower mark. For that I am very grateful, honored and humbled. So, I wanted to first thank you all.
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