Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, July 01, 2018

Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.

The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Things To Know About This Week’s CBO US Debt Report / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: F_F_Wiley

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Office’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which was released on Tuesday.

1. The CBO’s baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but this time on a sustained basis and breaching 150% of GDP by 2048. Here’s the chart:

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:

1. The stock market’s long term is bullish.
2. The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
3. The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)

Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.

Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Climate Change Armageddon / Politics / Climate Change

By: Richard_Mills

In Winnipeg, the hottest day of the year, on average, is nearly 40 degrees Celsius, while in Whitehorse, the mercury blasts past 31.4. A moderating coastal climate means little to Victoria, which averages 33.1 degrees, and Toronto, the most humid city in Canada, becomes even less bearable, with the temperature climbing to a sweltering 38.4.

These are the average hottest temperatures of the year in the new Canada, based on a higher-carbon atmosphere, one of three scenarios put together by The Prairie Climate Centre and graphed by The Globe and Mail in April. For Winnipeg, better known in summer for black flies than sun burns, that’s 4.8 degrees higher than the recent past, 4.5 degrees hotter in Victoria, and 4.9 degrees steamier in Toronto.

If climate change doesn’t stop, Hogtown (Toronto) will see over 100 days of searing-hot weather, according to the University of Winnipeg’s Prairie Climate Institute, which assembled the projected temperatures for Canadian cities as part of an interactive website that allows Canadians to see the likely impact of global warming on where they live. In the graph below, recent past means 1976-2005, while the future, both lower- and higher-carbon, refers to the years 2051-80.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull.  Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes.  This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies.  Caveat emptor!

History proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever.  Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses then give up their ghosts.  Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse.  Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes.  All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Stock Market Window Dressing Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures went as high as 2737.00 (~2732.00 cash) this morning before pulling back. There is still a probability of the retracement rally probing the mid-Cycle resistance at 2742.03, which is an approximate 50% retracement of the decline. Thus far this quarter has seen nearly a 3% gain in the SPX and today would be an important window dressing day.

Wave [i] of 1 would be considered a Leading Diagonal, while Waves [iii] and [v] appear to be impulsive. There is a cluster of Cycle Pivots starting today and going through the weekend. The first Cycle Pivot occurs around 1:00 pm today.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Why the Saudis Won’t Prevent The Next Oil Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia is starting to panic, and is growing concerned that the growing number of supply disruptions around the world could cause oil prices to spike. Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to head off a supply crunch, aiming to dramatically ramp up production to a record high 11 million barrels per day in July, according to Reuters.

The increase, if it can be pulled off, would be an incredibly rapid ramp up in output, up more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from May levels.

Friday, June 29, 2018

The Debt Threat and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the latest edition of the Market Overview, we have analyzed the risk related to the rising U.S. public debt and private leverage. This month, we will adopt a more global perspective. Until recently, thanks to the synchronized worldwide growth, it was easy to lose sight of the elephant in the room. But as U.S. interest rates have climbed in recent months and dollar has appreciated, we cannot ignore the debt threat any longer.

Indeed, the elephant is doing well. It is well-nourished and constantly growing. As the chart below shows, total non-financial debt has risen from 191 percent of global GDP at the end of 2001 to 210 percent before the financial crisis and to 245 percent today (the most recent data are for the end of September 2017).

Friday, June 29, 2018

Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Troy_Bombardia

For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.

From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:

On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Traders Buy Markets When They Cry, Sell When They Yell! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of.  So, let’s get right to it.

First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months.  Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months.  Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).

Friday, June 29, 2018

For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

See illustrations of complete bull and bear market cycles

You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."

So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?

Friday, June 29, 2018

Gold / Copper Miners Miners Interesting Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The GDX/COPX ratio has broken above the 50 & 200 day moving averages and is still going, despite gold’s ignominious state at the moment.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Corn Commodity Price Analysis 28th June 2018 / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – a downtrend is in progress and I believe a “three strikes and you’re out” low formation is setting up with price currently tracing out its way to the third and final low.

Bollinger Bands – price is at the lower band and the question is does price trade down alongside this band or does support come in and send price back up? I lean to the latter.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Don’t Miss This Important Gold Price Signal! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

It is generally agreed that in a Gold Bull Market, the gold producers lead the way, by outperforming gold bullion.  To examine this trend we visit Stockcharts.com and pull up a chart that compares mining stocks (GDX) to gold bullion (GLD).

Thursday, June 28, 2018

More Market Uncertainty as Stocks Keep Bouncing Up and Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes reversed their intraday uptrend and closed lower. Stocks bounced off the support level following Monday's sell-off, but they failed to continue higher. Will the market continue lower today? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.7% and 1.5% on Wednesday, as the investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index remains close to 2,700 mark and it currently trades 6.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%, as it was relatively weaker than the broad stock market on Wednesday.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Why it's Better to Use Bitcoin or PayPal to Fund Your Online Gaming / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Financial, Stocks, Gold, Dollar and Housing Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts Schedule / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Greetings traders and investors.

I am sure you will be aware that the volume of my analysis and forecast postings has greatly diminished over the past year or so due to the impact of rampant theft of my content and collapse in ad revenues due to the widespread use of ad blockers. However, I have some great news in terms of my forthcoming analysis schedule to include detailed looks at the current state of the UK and US housing bull markets, as well as for in-depth updates for markets I have already been covering this year i.e. gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin. And not forgetting a really in-depth look at the prospects for the stock market.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

SPX Futures Challenge the 50-day and Fail / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures attempted a rally, challenging the 50-day Moving Average, but couldn’t break through. They have since slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline and most likely have triggered that formation. That should send the SPX beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2666.78 and possibly beneath the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation at 2625.00.