Tuesday, June 26, 2018
The Federal Reserve And Long-Term Debt – Warning! / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Kelsey_Williams
Won’t somebody please say something different about the Federal Reserve? Or nothing at all?
It seems amazing to me that we are so studiously focused on comments, statements, or actions emanating from the Fed. It is as if we expect to find a morsel of truth that will give us special insight or a clue as to their next move.
I suppose that is reasonable to a certain extent – especially today. We are social-app (il)literate and very impatient. Seems to be a sort of day-trader mentality. Problem is that every morning we see the same headlines. All week long we hear about the most recent Fed meeting, or the release of minutes from the last meeting, or what to expect at the next meeting, etc., etc. And the cycle repeats itself every month. (I’m not Bill Murray and this is not Ground Hog Day.)
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
What Smokers Need To Know Before They Buy A Life Insurance Policy? / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Sound Money Needed Now More Than Ever / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
The sound money movement reemerged on the national political scene a decade ago. In 2008, the financial crisis brought in a fresh wave of U.S. gold and silver investors.
Ron Paul and the Tea Party advocated for limiting government and ending the Federal Reserve system. Sound money advocates made real inroads in recruiting Americans to their cause based on evidence that the nation is headed for bankruptcy.
The implications of the most recent financial crisis went way beyond budget and finance.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn in 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: F_F_Wiley
I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced by Fed officials. I’m now convinced that Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an important message that went largely unreported, and I expect him to keep at it until people take notice.
Powell’s message is that he intends to pop bubbles—both asset-price and credit bubbles. He didn’t communicate a precise threshold for bubble popping, but I believe he meant not just big bubbles but potentially little bubbles and possibly even pre-bubbles if that becomes necessary to contain the risks of financial instability. If we take him at his word, we should expect him to respond much more aggressively than his predecessors did to financial excesses, and those aggressive responses will occur even without an inflation threat. In other words, policy adjustments designed to maintain financial stability could disconnect from the FOMC’s inflation target.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Will the Stock Market Soar Over the Next 6-12 Months? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term is bullish.
- The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
- The stock market’s short term is a 50-50 bet.
- Small caps will probably continue to outperform large caps over the next few months.
Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
State of the Markets… Gameplan for Transition from Bull to Bear / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Plunger
First off, I would like to thank Rambus for allowing me the intellectual freedom to deliver to you the straight story as I see it. Our views are not always in sync but I will tell you he has not ever tried to spin my views. I understand I write here as a privilege and am presenting my honest opinion, with no ulterior motives. We just want to get these markets right and make money…Thanks Rambus.
This weekend I would like to review the main features characterizing the markets which I have chronicled over the past 6 months. Often times “less is more” so I will keep my remarks condensed and focus on the overall stock market and the precious metals.
This past week I have emphasized that the stock market is in a state of high risk. This is because valuations are sky high in all asset classes and I see the elements of a broad top in the market which will likely prove to be the end of this 9 year bull market. That’s not saying the market falls hard anytime soon, but the process of a top has begun and is ongoing. Stated differently, we are likely in Phase I of a bear market and once Phase II arrives it may prove to be devastating and adversely impact an entire nation of investors.
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Monday, June 25, 2018
Powell is Playing “Chicken” With $10 Trillion in $USD Shorts / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Graham_Summers
Thus far in his tenure as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell has emphasized that he is more concerned with the real economy than the financial markets.
Put another way, the Powell Fed, unlike the Bernanke or Yellen Feds before it, is willing to sacrifice stocks in the name of normalizing monetary policy provided the economy can withstand it.
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Monday, June 25, 2018
UK Fixed Rate Mortgage Gap Hits Five-year Low / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
As two-year fixed mortgage rates continue to rise, five-year fixed rate mortgages are starting to look more appealing. In fact, the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the gap between the average two and five-year fixed rate mortgage is the smallest it has been since August 2013.
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Monday, June 25, 2018
Stock Market Double Bottom at Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 has ended and we are in a new intermediate uptrend which should eventually take SPX to a new all-time high.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 25, 2018
This Is It For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.
While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.
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Monday, June 25, 2018
Could A Big Move In The Global Stock Markets Be Setting Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few months, our research team has authored many articles regarding the weakness in China/Asia as well as the recent rotation in the global markets as trade issues, debt issues, the G7 meeting and, more recently, concerns in the US and Europe regarding immigration and political issues create chaos in what was, just 18 months ago, a relatively calm global market. Yes, there have been some concerns over the past few year with regards to debt issues and other concerns, but the recent shakeup in the status-quo of the global markets seems to be presenting a massive opportunity for investors.
The recent news is that the European leaders are convening an Emergency Meeting to discuss immigration issues and other issues. This emergency meeting is warning us that other issues are at play here and immigration issues are the result of many failed policies and management by the EU to protect and distribute diversity to EU members.
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Sunday, June 24, 2018
Soybean Price Hits 9 Year Low Due to Trade War / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Early this week the price of Soybean futures (ZS_F) plunged to a new low in more than 9 years due to the tit-for-tat trade war between U.S. and China. Soybean Futures started to drop on Friday last week after Trump administration decided to go ahead with 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of goods from China. The list of targeted goods includes technology products which are part of Beijing’s Made in China 2025 initiative.
China quickly retaliated with its own 25% tariff on 545 U.S. goods worth equal value, including agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and wheat. Soybean futures for July delivery dropped more than 7% to $8.415 a bushel, the lowest since March 2009. The price is now 10% down for the year, and more than 17% down for the quarter.
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Sunday, June 24, 2018
Russell Has Gone up 8 Weeks in a Row. Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last week we published a study which demonstrated that when the Russell 2000 (small caps index) goes up 7 weeks in a row, the stock market’s future returns are very bullish.
The Russell 2000 has now extended that rally streak to 8 weeks up in a row.
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Sunday, June 24, 2018
Platinum Price Technical Chart Analysis 22nd June 2018 / Commodities / Platinum
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – $873.30
Pattern – a downtrend has clearly been in force…one that I believe ended today with a low at $857.60. And a bullish outside reversal candle to go with it. This will obviously need follow through to the upside while there may be some consolidation of this candle in the very immediate term.
Sunday, June 24, 2018
Small Cap Stocks, Technology and Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been warning our followers not to become frightened by price rotation in the US majors for months. Our predictive analysis has been showing us the upside in this market is far from over and our most recent analysis of the global markets is showing us that emerging markets and many global markets may be “disconnecting” from the US majors in a dramatic price move. See our most recent research posts for more on this potential crisis in the making.
Saturday, June 23, 2018
Gerald Celente: Why You Still Need Guns, Gold, and a Getaway Plan... / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world, and it's always great to have him on with us. Gerald, thanks for taking the time again today, and welcome back.
Gerald Celente: Thanks for having me on.
Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, the potential for a trade war is the hot topic in the financial press these days. Around here, the question is what escalating concerns over trade might mean for the precious metals markets, and we would like to get your thoughts on that. But first, please give us your take on the President's trade policy in general. Some people think the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of trade. We've been able to import real goods and services in exchange for increasingly worthless dollars. Others hate what so-called globalization has done to U.S. manufacturing and think Trump is delivering a long overdue warning shot to nations who have taken advantage of the U.S. So, where do you stand on all this?
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
Cheap Gold Stocks Bottom Basing / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are drifting listlessly in the summer doldrums, largely forgotten by investors and speculators. They are missing a fantastic opportunity to buy low in this barren sentiment wasteland when no one else wants to. The gold stocks remain exceedingly cheap relative to the metal which drives their profits, and they continue to establish a strong technical base. They are ready to soar as gold returns to favor.
Gold-stock investing feels pretty thankless these days, like an exercise in self-flagellation. Thus there aren’t many traders left in this realm. Week after week as gold stocks continue to drift on balance, the ranks of remaining investors and speculators dwindle. Interest in this sector is among the lowest I’ve ever seen in decades of actively trading gold stocks. They’ve been left for dead as contrarians vanish.
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.
Friday, June 22, 2018
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a while since we’ve had a 3 Amigos update because a) Italy and global tariffs noise aside, nothing much has changed with the macro and b) I felt my ‘image-based metaphorical content to straight content’ ratio was getting a little excessive. So I gave it a rest.
Now it is time again for an update of these important macro riders in order to touch base with their signals. As always, I’ll remind you that there is much more to the macro market backdrop that NFTRH manages on an ongoing basis, but these three are important.
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Friday, June 22, 2018
Gold - How Long Can This Last? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yields are rising. The global economy has adapted so far without any major problems. So far. But how long can this last? And what does it ultimately mean for the gold market?
Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, the U.S. long-term interest rates have been rising since September 2017. And they breached 3 percent in the second quarter of 2018, attracting investors’ attention all over the world.
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