Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Bull Market Correction Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alistair_Gilbert
Captain Ron has presented his well-reasoned case for Gold for the Bulls today and whilst our long-term viewpoint is the same, I believe that this correction is not over in either TIME or PRICE yet. But correction it is, NOT the end of the Bull market.
In order to determine where we are in the short-term wave count we have to stand back and look at the long-term wave count. Last week I presented the quarterly charts on a number of commodities that to me show quite clearly where we are. Below I show the quarterly DELTA chart on Gold and this time I have put my wave counts on the chart.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Bear Comparison: Today's Junior Resource Mining Sector vs 2001's Nasdaq / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: John_Lee
"Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of capitalizing experience." - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock OperatorRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
Overbought US Dollar Should Give Gold Price Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $857.50, down $11.90 and silver was down 92 cents to $15.29. Gold has risen in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $860.10/860.60 per ounce (1230 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI): Again a Golden Opportunity to Buy Gold Shares? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Peter_Zihlmann
Two major gold indices dominate the market - the AMEX's Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's XAU
The major difference between the two is that the BUGS index is made up exclusively of mining stocks that do not hedge their gold positions more than a year-and-a-half into the future. This makes the BUGS Index much more profitable than the XAU when gold prices are rising, but can also compound its losses when gold declines. BUGS is an acronym for B asket of U nhedged G old S tocks. The index was introduced on March 15, 1996 with a starting value of 200.
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Sunday, August 10, 2008
Russian Bear Delivers Crude Oil and Gold a Black Swan Event / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inter-state conflict that sparked late last Friday when apparently a Georgian barrage of the break-away region of
South Ossetia
resulted in near immediate Russian invasion of heavy equipment which has been accompanied by Georgia wide air attacks . Whilst it is not entirely clear of the real truth behind the sequence of events, I am however puzzled as to how Russia could have mobilised such a large force virtually immediately that one would suspect under normal circumstances take literally as long as a week to assemble. Therefore I am leaning towards the Georgian account of events, as clearly the Georgians were tricked into a sequence of events so as the Russians could implement a plan of invasion and potential annexation of several regions of Georgia. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Gold Succumbs to US Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
A week of dramatic developments ended with the dollar surging to 6-month highs and silver crashing an important support level and plunging. Gold, however, did not break below its important $850 support level, although as we shall see this certainly does not mean it won't soon. On its 1-year chart we can see that there has been no real panic selloff yet in gold, whose decline thus far from its July peak has been modest and measured compared to that of gold and silver stocks, but if the $850 support level gives way we can expect it to plunge into a selling climax that should terminate the decline. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Silver Plunges Through Support Heading for $14 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver support level in the $16.00 - $16.50 area finally buckled on Friday in the face of the dollar spike leading to a rapid plunge that has taken the price below its 300-day moving average. We can see this development on the 1-year chart, and how it has opened up the risk of a continued decline to the next support level in the $14 area.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Gold Plunges Towards Test of Key Support at $850 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
I think we all want to forget this past week and look ahead (all except those who had been on the short side, that is). We are now at a very significant support so let's see if it looks like gold will hold or fold.
GOLD : LONG TERM - Things got real interesting this past week so I thought I'd bring out my very long term chart of gold and see where we are at. About the only difference between the very long term chart and the long term chart is the use of a yearly (52 week) momentum indicator versus 30 weeks for the long term and the use of a yearly simple moving average line versus a 40 week weighted moving average line in the long term.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Gold Trend- The good, the Bad and the Ugly / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Brian_Bloom
Few of us holding gold related investments are happy about the recent performance of the gold price but, in this analyst's view, the appropriate way of looking at this is: “thank goodness the fever is abating”. Paradoxically, I am delighted that the gold price is experiencing a downward technical reaction. I would rather that the patient survived than that it died a spectacular pyrrhic death. A pullback in the gold price at this point in time is a very healthy sign. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Why Gold Fell Below $900 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the week ending 25th July 2008, the decrease of €578 million in gold and gold receivables reflected the sale by two Eurosystem central banks which roughly equates to the sale of just over 30.0 tonnes of gold. In the week ending the 1st of August, there was a decrease of €26 million in gold and gold receivables reflecting the sale by one Eurosystem central bank and the purchase of gold coins by another Eurosystem central bank, which roughly equates to the sale of around 1.40 tonnes of gold [consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement that came into effect on 27th September 2004]. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
Gold Bull Markets Strong Seasonal Tendancies / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
It's been a tough few weeks for gold investors. In mid-July this Ancient Metal of Kings closed near $976, within spitting distance of its all-time nominal high of $1005 achieved in mid-March 2008. But since then it has sold off relentlessly, down 10.4% ($101) at worst. Several days of this ugly span were marred by sharp selloffs too, including this past Tuesday's 2.2% plunge on the Fed's machinations.
If you are playing gold on the long side, it is tempting to get discouraged. After all, this week CNBC was emphatically claiming that the global commodities bulls had ended . Never mind that CNBC has prematurely declared these bulls over about a dozen times in the past few years, the misery of the moment is hard to transcend. Gold certainly wouldn't fare well if the commodities-hating financial media is right.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
Gold Driven Lower by US Dollar Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $869.40, down $5.00 and silver was down 25 cents to $16.21 . Gold remained largely unchanged in Asian trading but has fallen further in early European trading and is trading at $864.60/864.60 per ounce ( 0943 GMT).The continuing rally in the dollar in recent days (has risen as high as EUR 1.5142 this morning) and the recent sharp fall in commodity and oil prices has seen gold come under further pressure and it looks set to test the next level of support at $845-$850.
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
Commodities Super Cycle Heading for Demand Destruction? / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Gary_Dorsch
Jesse Livermore, the world's greatest trader used to say, “Remember, the market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time. Sometimes, the market will go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior,” he said. After Reuters CRB Index of 19-exchange traded commodities plunged by 10% in July, its biggest monthly decline since March 1980, the five-year bull-run for the “Commodity Super Cycle” appears to have peaked out, and speculators are building net short positions in commodities. “I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market, it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing,” Livermore warned.
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
The Case Against Investing in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Tim_Iacono
So, now that the U.S. government is squarely behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the price of crude oil is barreling toward the well known "bear market" milestone of a 20 percent decline, investors seem to be losing interest in gold as an investment alternative figuring that order will soon be restored to the global financial system and the recent energy price shock will soon be just one more in a long line of scares that, in the end, prove to be only a scare. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Gold ETF- The Best Trading Vehicle for Trading Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
GLD Gold ETF - Taking advantage of the gold market using the GLD exchange traded fund to generate consistent profits in any market condition.
As I mentioned before, the past 5 months have been very frustrating for most traders as we are stuck in this sideways price action. I also noted that August to December is generally the stronger months for gold. Although gold has been under selling pressure during the last 4 weeks I think there is light at the end of the tunnel. It's usually the darkest before dawn, but there are some hurtles for gold to over come before we are in the clear which I explain below.
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
Gold Continues to Consolidate / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $874.40, down $4.50 and silver was down 11 cents to $16.46. Gold has again recovered somewhat in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $883.00/883.40 per ounce (1058 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Gold and Silver Near Significant Secondary August Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Upon analyzing over 30 years of data involving the gold price, we conclude that the seasonal lows usually occur in March and June. Quite often however, after the June low a secondary low is experienced in August. This secondary low is usually slightly higher than the primary low. People who have resisted the temptation to buy the June low will usually take advantage of this last opportunity before the start of the Christmas rally that seems to happen almost every year. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Gold Plunges Despite Feds Stagflation Warning / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $878.90, down $20.50 and silver was down 56 cents to $16.57. Gold has recovered somewhat in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $885.20/885.70 per ounce (1200 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Agri-foods Correction Presents Long-term Investment Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices breaking, nonsense spewing forth from business media and strategists has expanded. Commodity prices have broken, many claim. Yes folks, those billion plus consumers in China stopped eating food the day paper oil prices peaked. We would not be surprised if they do keep eating. Slowdown in China? A possibility, and irrelevant for investment decisions. Imagine selling U.S. equities in1901 due to fear U.S. may have an economic slowdown sometime. That is today's equivalent of ignoring long-term impact of China and India. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Gold and Silver: Safe-havens in Troubled Times? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Each day we hear another piece of bad news on the banking front. It was called the sub-prime crisis, then it was the credit crunch; what we have in reality is a full blown banking crisis . Where in the past credit was easily given, full-blown consumer spending was encouraged and when it went too far, bankers saw asset values were dropping below loans against them and banks started to go bust. We are now seeing banks sued by the New York Attorney General. Hardly an environment in which confidence in the banking and financial systems can be retained?Read full article... Read full article...