Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Gold Cheap on Oil Ratio Basis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $883.20 in New York yesterday and was up $13.30 and silver closed at $1 7.24 up 67 cents. Gold traded in a range between $880 and $890 in Asia n and in European trading this morning prior to selling off at the open on the NYMEX . With oil selling off and the dollar stronger versus the euro today, gold has come under pressure. But the inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and central banks internationally are in an extremely difficult situation. Unfortunately, present macroeconomic conditions look set to worsen (possibly considerably) in the coming months before they get better. Stagflation is increasing by the day and this will result in gold outperforming other asset classes in the coming months as it did in the 1970's.
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Western Policy-Makers Refuse to Raise Interest Rates to Combat Surging Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES slipped out of a tight range just before the US open on Tuesday as strong volatility hit bonds, commodities and currency markets worldwide.Shanghai stocks dropped almost 3% on average, while crude oil slid $7 per barrel from Monday's new record highs near $140.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
New Socio-Economic Era Dawning Out of Credit and Fuel Crisis / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Brian_Bloom
Several weeks ago this analyst expressed the view that the US Equity markets were in the early stages of a Primary Bear Market and that investors should be more focused on capital preservation than on capital growth.
In hindsight, I continue to hold this view. The core issue seems to be that banks (led by Citigroup), in moving to bring off-balance-sheet items back onto their balance sheets, will likely expose the weaknesses in those balance sheets in the process; and there will likely be a deterioration in their ability/willingness to lend. Additionally, for reasons set out in the body of this article, it seems that the US Fed's ability to create money “out of thin air” is also waning. On balance, it seems that a higher reliance will be placed on equity than on debt in the capital markets. Where will this equity come from? Between them, the BRIC countries and OPEC may have up to $5.8 trillion to invest.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Gold Jumps on Strong European Inflation Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD jumped almost 1.3% from an early dip in London on Monday, rising above $879 per ounce as the latest European inflation data showed the cost of living rising at a 16-year record."Everywhere I turn, inflation is out of control," said Peter McGuire of Commodity Warrants Australia to Bloomberg TV overnight.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Changes- Living in the Last Days of Cheap Resources and Cheap Commodities / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: David_Vaughn
Went to the store and paid 7 bucks for 2 pounds of fresh North Carolina blueberries. Does that sound like a good deal? Milk was close to 5 dollars a gallon. Evidently, trying to compete with gas prices. Anyone confused where things are headed? Need tech support on your PC and you will find yourself talking to someone in India .Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Global Economic Growth Drives Energy Sector Demand Upward / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
As the cost of crude oil has soared in recent years, the amount produced hasn't kept pace with demand. Worldwide oil production has barely budged, despite record prices. Since 2004 the price of oil has gone from $33 per barrel to $132 – meanwhile production has risen just 1.8 percent, to 84.6 million barrels per day. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Gold Longterm Trend Turns Bearish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
These $10 and $20 moves are quite frustrating, especially those on the down side, BUT if one looks closely on a chart there might be things that may be encouraging (or not). So, let's look at some charts.
GOLD: LONG TERM - What we have here is a long term point and figure chart of the gold price movement since 1987. The red lines are bear trend or resistance lines while the blue lines are bull trend or support lines. The thickest lines are primary lines while the thinner lines are secondary.
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Saturday, June 14, 2008
Black Swans and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Needham
While it is all white swans and their cygnets on the common at this time of the year in London , black swan events are a very real possibility as John Needham explains in the following article. - Yvonne Lundon-Marchant - The Daniel Code U.K. and Europe
With Fed chief Bernanke trumpeting that the credit crisis is abating, a postscript to his promise that “the subprime problem is contained”, and asserting that the US will not see recession, punters are feeling warm and fuzzy about US markets and apart from an occasional frown about gasoline prices, generally the thrust is that the worst is over. If you are in that camp you may have to think again. As our theme photo shows, tree climbing skills come in handy when bears are on the loose.
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Friday, June 13, 2008
The Danger of Government Intervention in the Commodity Markets / Commodities / Government Intervention
By: Clive_Maund
Just a week ago gold and silver were well placed to begin a new uptrend and while they are still are, we have over the past week witnessed severe testing of - and erosion of - support at a critical level that is leading to rapidly increasing downside risk.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
How Will the Oil Market Drive Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The oil price rose to $139 on Friday and looked like it was 'spiking' to over $150. But is it? That's a rise of 44% this year. A great deal more than technical chart pointers will be needed to understand where oil, food, gold and silver are headed in this environment. If this is the time when consumer and investor demand will rise beyond supply's ability to provide enough, then this is not a 'spike' but a structural change in the market. It will produce a systemic crisis that has to be resolved in collaboration by the world's governments. Are they capable of such cooperation? The prospect of $200 oil then comes into view.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Energy Stocks that Will Profit from Widening of the Crude Oil Crack Spread / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Here at Money Morning over the past six months, we've talked a great deal about oil and gasoline prices. We've offered our predictions about how high those prices were going , and have detailed a number of investment opportunities - chosen as much for their margins of safety as for their profit potential.
This time we're going to detail three energy stocks with the potential for double-digit - or even triple-digit - profit gains. Admittedly, these are longer-shot, speculative plays. But we used a special energy indicator to help ferret out these energy plays.
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Friday, June 13, 2008
Gold Rallies on US May 4.2% CPI Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES rallied into the US opening on Friday, bouncing from their second dip below $860 per ounce on news that US consumer-price inflation rose to 4.2% in May.Crude oil and the Euro held flat, meantime, while Asian stock markets closed out their worst week since the global banking crisis began in summer '07.
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Friday, June 13, 2008
Gold Sell off Despite Building Inflationary Pressures / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $869.50 in New York and was down $10.50 and silver closed at $16.48 down 29 cents. Gold rallied initially in Asia but has subsequently given up those gains and has fallen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
The Treasury Yield Curve and the Gold Bull Market Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Some very confusing factors are at work relating to the US Treasury Bond market and the gold market. To assume that gold will rise in knee jerk fashion in response to the gargantuan grotesque growth in monetary inflation (aka US$ money supply) is simply naïve for the public and amateurish for professionals. Never in the US history has more confusion reigned within the body financial. This is to be expected, since the US banking system is insolvent, in parallel to the US housing landscape being increasingly insolvent. The nation must soon make difficult decisions on rebuilding the United States , its infrastructure, its energy supply industry, and put down its military weapons used abroad. Some strange effects are detectable regarding the US Treasury yield curve changes in recent weeks. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude OIl and the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dan_Stinson
The USD has completed a leading diagonal and is currently in a wave (2) correction. The current wave up is close to completion and we should see one more wave down to complete wave (2) down. Once this wave down completes, we should see a strong rally in wave (3) up. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Nothing Sweet About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One thing that I have noticed whenever I publish an article on gold that concludes with a bearish outlook, it tends to be followed by an healthy email response usually informing me that I am completely wrong and that gold is destined to travel to the moon. No other market analysis generates such a response. This clearly signals to me that many, many investors are over weighted in the gold and precious metals which in itself is a warning sign of an imminent peak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Crude Oil Rising, Clean Energy Reversing? / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Mike_Paulenoff
When I look at the daily chart of crude oil, now it appears that a new upleg
is in progress with a target of ... $150? ... $160? ... who knows? What is
really interesting to me now is the potential geopolitical connections that
could be the underlying reasons why crude just never sustains lower prices
for very long.
It seems to me from what I have been reading that the three leaders around
the globe who are in trouble are Bush, Olmert, and Ahmadinejad. And all
three could be looking at confrontation as a way to save their presidencies,
and/or to try to ensure that their political party remains in office.
Confrontation?
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Gold Sinks to 5-Week Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES slid yet again overnight on Thursday, giving back all of yesterday's 1.9% rally to reach fresh one-month lows below $862 per ounce as Western stock markets rallied, led by beaten-down banking shares.Bond prices slipped, pushing interest rates higher. The Dollar rose sharply on the forex market. Crude oil and commodity prices fell.
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Thursday, June 12, 2008
Oil Bull Market: It's Not Too Late to Profit! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Being bullish (or bearish) on a market should not mean being blind. For instance, I've been forecasting sharply higher oil prices ever since I turned bullish way back in 2001. And I am still bullish. But I also keep my eyes wide open for anything that might get in the way of oil's bull market.
I often step back in order to make sure I'm not overly influenced by greed and fear, which are the dominant emotions on Wall Street. This is critically important when a market gets as euphoric as oil is today.
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Thursday, June 12, 2008
Gold Stocks - the Rumbling Volcano About to Explode! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Rising inflationary expectations keep money exiting the faltering stock markets away from their designer-made "safe havens" - government bonds. The result will be a powerful breakout of the precious metals and their mining shares.
The time for gold stocks to regain their old leverage over gold and ratchet up into their next higher orbit is very near, even though at the moment it may not look that way. Here are the reasons why:
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