Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Will Coins and Bars Save Gold 2019? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

There is a disconnection between paper and physical gold prices and the former has to catch up with the latter eventually. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about demand for gold coins and bars and find out whether it will save the yellow metal.

The best stories are about the conflict between good and evil, or light and dark. In the precious metals market, we also have such a narrative, or actually several variations on the theme. But one of the most popular thread is the ‘disconnection’ between paper and physical gold. The characters are clearly identified: paper market is the powerful Empire while the physical gold is Rebellion, which heroically fights a stronger and more vicious opponent.

Friday, December 28, 2018

Can Gold Swim in a Crosscurrent? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell noticed some crosscurrents in the path of the US economy. Will it stay on the surface? And is gold a good swimmer?

Crosscurrents Cause Fewer Hikes

We hope that you enjoyed Christmas. As we promised last week, we will analyze the post-meeting Powell’s press conference today. The Fed Chair remained optimistic about the US economy, which “has continued to perform well.” However, “some crosscurrents have emerged.” Powell meant the moderation of global growth, increased financial market volatility, and tightened financial conditions. As a consequence, the Fed now sees only two instead of three hikes in 2019:

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Frank Holmes Predicts Gold Price Explosion to the Upside in “Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me and shares why he believes this past quarter has been a very constructive and encouraging one for gold -- and he also gives us his outlook for the equity and metals markets in 2019. Don’t miss another great interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Heavy selling in the stock market this week is stimulating demand in the future markets for safe-haven assets, most notably precious metals.

Stocks plunged on the heels of another rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday.  The FOMC raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point and signaled it intends to hike two more times in 2019.

Monday, December 24, 2018

Gold Price Trend Forecast Review and Stocks Brief / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a quick update of my Gold Price trend forecast.

My forecast conclusion as of early September was to expect the following trend for the Gold Price for the remainder of 2018

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Silver Price Trend Forecest 2018 Review / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 1st in a series of 4 videos that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
2. Gold - Silver Ratio
3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
   

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Stock Market Nearing Low as Gold Tests Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As we’ve been saying, the stock market will have great influence on Gold. It has been easy to see in recent months.

The S&P 500 has cracked, losing both its 200-day and 400-day moving averages. Gold and gold stocks have benefitted and gained in recent months even with a stable to rising US Dollar.

The past 65 years of history shows us that in almost any context (but not all) the time between the Fed’s last rate hike and first rate cut is exactly when you want to buy gold stocks.

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Forget the Noise, Follow the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the effects of the Federal Reserve Bank interest rate increase and plans for 2019.

"Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves."

Here are a couple of facts one needs to remember when attempting to decipher yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Fed Gooses Gold, Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The dovish Federal Reserve lit a fire under gold and its miners’ stocks this week.  As universally expected the FOMC hiked rates for the 9th time in this cycle.  But it also lowered its 2019 rate-hike outlook bowing to the stock-market selloff.  Traders dumped gold initially thinking that wasn’t dovish enough.  But market reactions to the FOMC form over a couple days, and gold surged overnight.  Its post-Fed rally has great potential.

Gold-futures speculators dominate gold’s short-term trading action.  They punch way above their weight in capital terms thanks to the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures.  This week, the minimum margin for trading each 100-ounce contract controlling $125,000 worth of gold at $1250 was just $3400!  These traders can run crazy maximum leverage as high as 36.8x, compared to the stock markets’ legal limit of 2x.

Friday, December 21, 2018

Will Miners Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The price of gold cannot decline and stay below the gold production costs. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the mining costs and find out whether they provide a floor for gold prices.

So if the central bank demand for gold is not able to boost the price, then maybe mines will help? We refer here to the popular narrative that the price of the yellow metal cannot decline below its cost of production. But do gold production costs really set a floor for bullion prices?

Thursday, December 20, 2018

Will Gold Rally in January after the Fed Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

December as usual. Another Fed hike is behind us. Will we now see a rally in gold in January?

Fed Hiked But It Will Monitor Risks

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 18th-19th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent (it was the ninth lift since 2015):

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 1st article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
2. Gold - Silver Ratio
3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
   

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Will Powell Turn Into Dove and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Tomorrow, the FOMC will publish its monetary policy statements and economic projections. How could they affect the gold market? And what about the recent developments in Europe?

FOMC Preview and Gold

The market awaits the monetary policy decision of the FOMC and its fresh economic projections. If the Committee surprises on the dovish (hawkish) side, gold will shine (struggle). Our bet is that – given the attitude of the new Board Governors, the stock market correction, and reduced forecast for global growth in the coming years – the December economic projections might be less optimistic than in September. It would be also in line with the previous December meetings when hawkish actions were accompanied by dovish signals.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

Perception of gold as an investment is fundamentally flawed. No matter the detail behind the analysis, gold is not an investment. 

     investment…a thing that is worth buying because it may be profitable or useful in the future.

Lets suppose you are at the grocery store and you see that butter is on sale for $2.00 per pound. Normally you pay $3.00 per pound or more.

Since you use butter in your cooking and eating, and buy butter regularly, you place the butter in your cart and express thanks for such good fortune. But why not take advantage of the sale? You buy an additional one month supply and place it in your cart.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Newmont Mining Gann Angles / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: readtheticker

Newmont Mining (NEM) is a gold stock with plenty of institutional interest. This means due to its huge following it is a good candidate for Gann Angles.

Gold and gold stocks are waiting for the FED and other central banks to swing to dovish monetary policy, Powell hinted this in last speech, and next week the FED is expected to hike 0.25% to 2.5%, however the 3 previously planned hikes in 2019 look very doubtful.

Sunday, December 16, 2018

This Market Will Drive Gold in 2019… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

If we want to know where Gold is going we should follow Gold. Right?

How about following gold stocks? At times, they lead Gold.

What about the US Dollar? Wrong!

In 2019, one market more than any other will impact Gold.

That is the stock market.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Gold Stocks Triple Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The beleaguered gold stocks are recovering from their late-summer capitulation, enjoying a solid young upleg as investors gradually return.  Their buying has pushed the leading gold-stock ETF near a major triple breakout technically.  That event should really boost capital inflows into this sector, accelerating the rally.  A major gold and gold-stock buying catalyst is likely imminent too, a more-dovish Fed next week.

The gold miners’ stocks have always been a small contrarian sector, a little-watched corner of the stock markets.  But they’ve been even more unpopular than usual in recent months.  That pessimistic sentiment is driven by price action, which has mostly proven poor in 2018.  That’s really evident in the performance of the flagship gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF which is struggling.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

‘Hard’ Brexit Risk Sees Gold Gain In Euros and Pounds – Nears £1,000/oz & €1,100/oz / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

Gold was lower today in dollars but saw slight gains in pounds and euros. It was supported by increasing concerns about the likelihood of a ‘hard’ Brexit, about global economic growth and uncertainty around the Fed’s interest rate policies in 2019.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Will Central Bank Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks’ purchases create a floor for gold prices. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the central banks’ demand for gold and find out whether it will save gold.

Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. As of H1 2018, they hold about 34,000 tons of bullion worth $1.36 trillion, or 10.3 percent of the total reserves, according to the World Gold Council.

Friday, December 14, 2018

If You Aren’t Making Music with Commodities, Try This Song Instead / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Cocoa's 2016-7 bear market reversal was in total harmony with one kind of analysis

If financial markets were styles of music, equities, especially the most stable Big Board stocks, are like great classical compositions: They're made up of consistent, steady tempos you could listen to all day with the occasional booming or crashing note.

Commodities are different. They're the jazz players delivering choppy, frenetic tunes with jolting chord changes.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Gold GDX Cycles from the January 2016 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: ElliottWaveForecast

EWF Lewis : Firstly, the GDX ETF was created in 2006. From there it bounced higher into the September 2011 highs. This not shown on the chart however the price trend was obviously up. The pullback lower into the January 2016 lows corrected the cycle from the all time highs. The bounce from the January 2016 lows was strong enough to suggest it was no longer pulling back lower. It ended that bullish cycle August 2016. I give Elliott Wave benefit of the doubt that was a lead diagonal up. The January 2016 low should hold in any further dip.