Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Sterling Falls On UK Credit Ratings Downgrade, Gold In GBP 1.8% Higher YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,592.50, EUR 1,201.89 and GBP 1,051.85 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,580.00, EUR 1,196.15 and GBP 1,034.78 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $29.27/oz, €22.14/oz and £19.41/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,631.50/oz, palladium at $749.00/oz and rhodium at $1,175/oz.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Gold and the Developed World in the Face of Massive Change in the Next Two Decades / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

In the last five years, we have seen the start of the decline of the developed world and the real impact of the economic rise of China on that world. What lies ahead? James Wolfensohn, the ex-president of the World Bank gave a short lecture in which he forecasts what the world's cash flows would be like in 2030:

Monday, February 25, 2013

AMEX Gold BUGS Index Chart and Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: David_Petch

The following article was posted one week ago with analysis of the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI), except the chart has been updated. Below is the only Figure present in this update, with further explanations of what each coloured line represents. Potential outcomes for the HUI are examined, with the strongest being to the upside rather than downside. Upside targets are discussed and what must happen for them to be met.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Takes Courage to buy Gold and Silver Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

There is now such an overwhelming array of technical evidence that the Precious Metals sector is forming a major bottom, that by the end of reading this update you will, or should unless you are stupid, understand why we now have no choice but to turn strongly and unequivocally bullish on the sector. Up until now we have had some reservations, but these have been swept away by the latest truly extraordinary data.

You may recall that in the last update posted on the 10th we called for a drop. As you won't need reminding, we got it. On its 7-month chart we can see that gold sliced straight through support at its early January bull hammer low and then dropped steeply into last Wednesday - Thursday, where a high volume selling climax occurred at a parallel trendline target. Gold is now quite deeply oversold, with many oscillators at extreme readings. This 7-month chart cannot provide the big picture of what is going on, only recent detail, so let's now move on to the longer-term charts.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Silver Back in Buying Territory Ahead of Powerful Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

Even though the technical indications for silver are not as strongly bullish as those for gold, they are now sufficiently positive that silver is likely to take off higher before much longer, encouraged by the strength that we should soon see reappear in gold. Of course, it will probably take some weeks for sentiment to recover sufficiently to drive a significant rally after the latest sharp drop, so we may see some backing and filling before a sustainable uptrend can get going, but that is normal.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Copper – Huge Sell-Off. Who Is Doing The Buying? / Commodities / Copper

By: Michael_Noonan

Market activity rules! It is the basis for understanding the motivation for all moves, up or down. If you want to know what smart money [controlling influences] is doing, watch when volume activity picks up, especially at highs and lows for that is when a transfer of risk from weak into strong hands occurs.

You do not have to pay attention to news, what others are saying about the market. You get far more accurate, and current information on where the market is headed by reading what the market is saying about others. This comes in the form of price/volume behavior. Smart money is very deft at hiding their hand. They move much larger positions, so it is during high volume activity when one can best determine when they are active, and what they may be doing.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Gold And Silver - Market Says Decline Not Over. Silver More Pivotal Than Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Developing market activity is the best and most reliable source for market information. All you have to do is follow what the activity is saying, and you will have the clearest idea of where the market is headed. For the near term, of heightened concern for many, the market says the current decline is far from over. Price may not be far from the low of the decline, but the trend is down, and it takes time to turn a trend around, so do not expect to see a dramatic rise in the price of either gold or silver.

Our downside target of $1600 gold has been exceeded, while the $28 target for silver has not been met, although in horseshoes, it would be a leaner. [See Decline Not Over, 1st and 3rd charts, click on http://bit.ly/WWXFlt]. Next week, who knows?

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Gold and Silver Enhanced Investor Opportunities Loci / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”           French Wisdom Nugget

“Federal Reserve Policymaker’s late last month expressed explicit and detailed squeamishness over their monetary stimulus, which might be scaled back sooner than the Fed’s own guidance suggests, according to Minutes released Wednesday.” (emphasis added) IBD, 02/21/13

All Investment Cognoscenti know that The Fed’s “Communication Policy” is aimed at Financial and Market Ends, not at Truth. (Here, should we rely on The Fed’s earlier expressed “Guidance,” or this week’s “Scaling Back” Hint? They can not both be True.)

Friday, February 22, 2013

GOLD Price Forecast - Should be Completing a Cyclical Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: David_Banister

Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February.  My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month.  With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

Friday, February 22, 2013

Silver Price Backwardation, Corrections and Perception Shifts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The price of silver futures contracts have been regularly flirting with a state of backwardation ever since the 2008 Financial Crisis, which is a sign of a growing physical silver shortage.

A state of backwardation occurs when the front month silver futures contract commands a price premium to the subsequent months’ contracts.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Gold Capitulation! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold got crushed this week in what can only be described as a capitulation.  Cascading selling took on a life of its own as the yellow metal knifed through multiple key support lines.  Newsflow exacerbated gold’s free fall, as extreme fear tainted everything with a heavy pall of bearishness.  Gold bears were euphoric, coming out in droves to pronounce doom on the metal.  But capitulations are actually very bullish events.

Capitulation is one of the ugliest words in the markets, it means surrender.  Most of us are taught from a very young age to never give up, never stop striving.  So traders are loath to admit they succumbed to a capitulation.  Rather than acknowledging they gave into their own fears to sell low at the worst possible time, they try and rationalize their failing.  They have to believe the capitulation marks the start of selling.

Friday, February 22, 2013

How Close is Gold Price to the Final Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold roller coaster seems to go on and on without an end. But what we have seen this week was more of a bungee jumping. However, at this time there seems to be no more room for further declines, as major support lines have been reached already or are about to be reached. Does this mean that we are close to the final bottom and that a strong rally will emerge soon? Let us jump straight into the technical part of today's essay to find out - we'll start with the yellow metal's long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

Friday, February 22, 2013

Gold Price Correction Separating the Men from the Boys / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

Is gold bullion becoming the commodity the mainstream media and analysts love to hate?

After all, views of the metal are becoming increasingly bearish. But I believe the most important factor as to why gold bullion is actually attractive at this point is being ignored; gold bullion becomes more valuable as the paper money created by central banks increases in circulation.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Why Would You Ever Want To Own Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bill_Bonner

Stocks up another 53 points on the Dow yesterday. Gold down another $5.

The Dow is above its 14,000 peak; gold is below $1,600/oz.

I'll come back to this in a minute. First...

Friday, February 22, 2013

Now is the Time to Buy Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Since the end of December we’ve been writing about the coming bottom in precious metals. Our forecast for 2013 was to see a low in Q1 and then continued consolidation until the end of the summer in which Gold could be in good position to break $1800. That forecast remains largely intact, although it appears the mining stocks will bottom quite a bit lower than we thought two months ago and even five months ago. Three weeks ago we noted that a potential final bottom was on the way. After beating around the bush we are ready to say that now is the time to begin buying and we’ll show you why.

Friday, February 22, 2013

How Strong is Gold Demand? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Eric_McWhinnie

Since hitting all-time nominal highs above $1,900 an ounce, the price of gold has declined and essentially traded sideways for over a year. The price action has discouraged some investors, but others are still purchasing the precious metal in record amounts.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Junior Gold Stocks Flat Lining / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: HRA_Advisory

Juniors are still in flat-line mode (on a good day). A bunch of new resource estimates were not enough to make much difference though in my experience they often don't. There are enough people tracking most stocks that the market tends to have a fair idea of what a resource estimate will look like. Weakening gold and silver prices dampened the impact of even good numbers.

Friday, February 22, 2013

The Herd is Wrong About Gold, Wrong About Alaska / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Casey_Research

My message lately has been very simple: buy low.

And do it now.

The essential formula for investing, as you know, is to buy low and sell high. So easy to say, so hard to do.

It takes real mettle to be a successful contrarian, and it's precisely because so many investors are so nervous about our market today that it's a buyer's market.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Gold Sitting at Ledge of Support Cliff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: EconMatters

A Rough Start for 2013

Well Gold hasn`t had a particularly good start to the year, in fact, a good pairs trade would be going long the S&P 500 and short the Gold market for a nice 12% return in two months. But many Gold Investors are not yet ready to throw in the towel for 2013, and some even have targets in the 2000 an ounce area, and think this pullback, although significant, represents an excellent buying opportunity.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Keep Your Head When Investing In Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jeb_Handwerger

"If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you...And--you'll be a Man, my son!" ~ If by Rudyard Kipling

Today a news item from the Wall St. Journal crossed my desk entitled, "A Fearful Time For Gold". Then I read another article entitled, "S&P500 In Longest Winning Streak Since 2004." These articles are an indication of what the majority is thinking and may be a contrarian buy alert for my readers.