Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a while since we’ve applied historical analysis to the precious metals sector. It is something we really enjoy as history can help define and contextualize current trends and help us spot opportunities. Back in March of this year we noted that the gold stocks could be following the path of recovery of housing stocks since their 2009 bottom. Recently, James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial has produced some excellent videos discussing some historical comparisons that are quite relevant to the gold stocks at present. We saw his videos, remembered our housing analog and wanted to take it a step further. What was the path of recovery of markets following mega bear markets?

We define a mega bear market as at least an 80% decline that lasted roughly three to four years. The image below highlights the data we’ve compiled. Some of the bears are only two years long but they follow the general recovery path. That consists of a very strong initial rebound that lasts six to twelve months which is followed by a correction and consolidation which usually lasts 18 months to two years. Then, the market begins its next impulsive advance.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Morrisons Cheap £5 Christmas 100 LED Fairy Lights Review / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Anika_Walayat

I doubt anyone is going to find 100 LED Christmas fairy lights any cheaper than £5, as which are being sold by Morrisons. These are battery operated so can be put up anywhere without regard to a power source. But before you buy on your next shopping trip watch our video review to see if they are a great set of cheap lights or just unfit for purpose junk.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Forex Markets: British Pound Faces Strong Resistance Ahead / Currencies / British Pound

By: Richard_Cox

Currency markets have emerged from the summer period and we are now looking at the development of several new trends in many of the majors.  Judging the likely expectations in the British Pound is an action that will continue to remain important, given the effect it should have on broad asset benchmarks like the FTSE 100. 

Monday, November 20, 2017

Many Stock Market Investors Are Waiting for the New Tax Plan to Hit the Sell Button / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Congress is deciding your portfolio’s future right now—so you might want to pay attention.

In Connecting the Dots six months ago, I said, “There will be no tax cut this year, and likely not in 2018, either.” I still see almost no chance that anything will pass.

Saying the parties are divided would be an understatement. It’s a chasm that separates not just Democrats and Republicans, but Republicans internally as well.

Add the lobbying firepower brought in by those who stand to lose and any significant changes are almost impossible. So we’re probably stuck with the present system.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” / Economics / Money Supply

By: F_F_Wiley

Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates.

Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures. Economists and pundits debated the Fed’s preferred measures while concocting their own home-brewed variations.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump’s critics claim he lacks a comprehensive approach to Asia. In reality, his current approach is aligned with moderate “America First” goals. But what did Trump really achieve in Asia?

If President Obama’s pivot was based on multilateral trade agreements, which were mainly geopolitical and predicated on exclusionary politics against China, Trump’s interest is in bilateral trade deals, which are fueled by US exports, foreign investments in US jobs and foreign purchases of American military weaponry.

Monday, November 20, 2017

UK Variable Savings Interest Rates Fell in the run-up to Base Rate Rise / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, yet to be published, reveals that average variable rates fell in anticipation of a base rate rise by the Bank of England. This was the first time since April 2017 that the majority of variable rates had experienced a fall.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, November 20, 2017

NZDUSD Broke Below Important Support At 0.6817 / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Franco_Shao

NZDUSD extended its downside movement from 0.7557 to as low as 0.6780, breaking below an important support level at 0.6817. Further decline would likely be seen over the next several weeks.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Bitcoin Price Blasts Through $8,000… In Zimbabwe Tops $13,500 As Mugabe Regime Crumbles / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Bitcoin has just blasted to another new all-time high of $8,055!

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Stock Market More Correction Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current position of the market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with no sign of a major top in sight.
 
 Intermediate trend –  Soon coming to an end.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Stock Investing: ETF Exposure in Emerging Middle Eastern Markets / Companies / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Richard_Cox

Stock investors that are looking to take positions in emerging markets have started to look to the Middle East in growing numbers.  The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has proven to be one of the most stable economies in the region and, as a result, we have started to see more stock market selections offered through exchange traded funds.  One name to watch here is the iShares MSCI UAE Capped ETF (NASDAQ:UAE), which is showing some interesting chart activity as it attempts to break out of its recent trading ranges.  

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018

By: John_Rubino

Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Morrisons Christmas 2017 More Points Bonus Last Chance! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: HGR

Today's your last chance to profit from Morrisons More Points Christmas 2017 Bonus. That could yield you as much as an extra £31.50 by the end of December just by shopping at Morrisons. And even if you miss out on the main bonus of £22.50, you still can easily get about £9. Find out how in our latest timely video.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients / Politics / UK Benefits

By: N_Walayat

The Universal Credits nightmare is set to continue for the working poor this Christmas as over 100,000 people look set to receive no payment over the festive season. The reason being that Universal Credit can not cope with something as simple as that there being 5 fridays (pay days) during December, where such months can tip recipients over the monthly limits for claiming Universal Credit as UC is not able to do the simple calculation of averaging earnings throughout a year that is the case for the likes of tax credits.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

UK Financial Markets: Pros and Cons of Being a Private Investor / Personal_Finance / Investing 2017

By: Submissions

By Dividend Investments : By definition, a private investor refers to a certain person or a private company who has privately held shares that are not traded in the stock market for investments. Thanks to newly-launched regulations, policies and online marketplaces, having private investments are becoming more common and accessible.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

SPX Cycle Concern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: SurfCity

I have the SPX on just day two of a new short term Trading Cycle but many of the technical indicators I watch are showing signs that the momentum of the SPX’s longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) are starting to stall near the 3 month mark of the current IC Uptrend. My first Daily chart shows volatility has returned and we often see this at cycle turns. Yes we are on day 2 out of a TCL/DCL but my second chart also shows 3 key TA indicators that may be signaling a top forming on the SPX’s longer Intermediate Cycle.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.