Sunday, January 22, 2017

The Epidemic of Bad Ideas / Politics / Social Issues

By: David_Galland

Dear Parader,

This week’s missive tackles a big topic. One of the biggest.

That’s because it touches virtually every corner of society: politics, the economy, investments, social order, innovation. People live or die because of it.

The topic is education.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Gold Futures Prices Looking Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has rebounded sharply higher in the past month, taking the early lead as 2017’s best-performing asset class.  Normally such a big gold surge would require heavy gold-futures buying by speculators.  But they’ve been missing in action, barely moving any capital into gold yet.  Their collective bets on this metal remain very bearish.  Since they are such a strong contrarian indicator, that’s a very-bullish omen for gold.

The sole mission of speculation and investment, and thus all the endless research that feeds into it, is to multiply wealth.  Traders can’t effectively buy low and sell high unless they understand what drives the prices of their trades.  For years now, gold has had two overwhelmingly-dominant drivers.  Their capital flows fully explain the vast majority of all gold’s price action, and thus are exceedingly important to study.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Great Rotation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The performance of gold in 2017 depends largely on whether the Trump’s presidency will lead to lasting shift in the markets. What changes do we mean? Some analysts mention the reflation, others point out the ‘risk on’ sentiment and the ‘great rotation’ out of bonds and into stocks. Ray Dalio, the founder and chairman of Bridgewater, claims that the Trump’s victory was a turning point ending the period characterized by increasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness; relatively innocuous fiscal policies; sluggish GDP growth, low inflation, and falling bond yields. The new period is believed to be characterized more by decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness; aggressively stimulative fiscal policies; increased economic growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

This Ratio Suggests Gold Is Entering a Major Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

An often cited negative about gold is the inability for investors to value it, unlike traditional investments such as stocks and bonds.

A company’s revenues and earnings can be forecast to arrive at a valuation multiple. A bond’s cash flows can be discounted to come up with a present value. But since gold bullion does not produce either, investors often struggle with assigning a fair value.

Some will look at technical analysis, others fundamentals, interest rates, or expected inflation—but unfortunately there’s no correct answer, and attempting to time the market when choosing an entry point is extremely difficult.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Trump Talks Gibberish at Inauguration then Panic Runs to CIA to Prevent Assassination / Politics / US Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If you thought Trump was unhinged during the election campaign then you have not seen anything yet for he is truly showing all the hallmarks of turning into an American Pyscho! First we had his inauguration speech, which was far from being presidential, a stream of gibberish inter spiced with "america first" and "make america great again", something a rebellious teenager would have put together.

Now what would a sane President have been focused on following in the inauguration? Getting ones team together to start the hard work to rebuild america? Not Trump, his first order of business was the size of the inauguration crowd!

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Time for Crude Oil Price Drop below $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.57% after the head of the IEA warned of a significant increase in U.S. shale output as OPEC and non-OPEC producers cut output. This news negatively affected the investors' sentiment and pushed the black gold under important support levels. What does it mean for light crude?

Saturday, January 21, 2017

These Are the 3 Main Issues for Europe in 2017 / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union's slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade.

The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countries… each with their own interests at stake.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Cryobanking Could Solve The Transplant Organ Shortage / Companies / Healthcare Sector

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK COX : What’s the one medical condition most likely to kill you? If you follow statistics, you'd probably say heart disease. Each year, more than a million Americans have a heart attack. And about one in four deaths in the US is due to the condition.

Though heart disease tops most "causes of death" lists, far more Americans die due to the transplant organ shortage. And heart transplants could prevent most cardiac arrest deaths.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

AI and Robotics - We Are All Low-Skilled Workers Now / Economics / Robotics

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : The news headlines after last week’s jobs report proved it again: Life is hard (and getting harder) for low-skilled workers. Illegal immigrants take their service industry jobs. Robots take their manufacturing industry jobs.

According to the media, many low-skilled workers have simply given up. They’re dropping out of the labor force, going on welfare, overdosing on drugs. Their lives are terrible, and everyone wants to help.

Friday, January 20, 2017

The Trump RESET Starts on US Presidential Inauguration Day 2017 - What to Expect / Politics / US Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump will be sworn into office at 12 noon today to become the 45th President of the United States that will trigger the 'Trump Reset' on that which has passed for the past 40 years, which my video series seeks to detail the key mega-trend geopolitical consequences of why the US under a Trump Presidency is trending for instance towards an inevitable war with China, economic, cyber and even outright military conflict, something that is deemed to be impossible by most today.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Stock Market Down Day with Poor Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a tough session after opening with a gap up, and a strong surge on the Nasdaq 100, but the S&P 500 was barely able to move. They plunged sharply in the morning, bounced back midday, only to roll over again, making lower lows. At the end of the day, they did have a 5-wave comeback that pared back the losses, but still it was a down day.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 72.32 at 19,732.40. The S&P 500 was down 8.20 at 2263.69. The Nasdaq 100 was down 4.68 at 5051.17.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.

During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.

Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Will the CIA Assassinate Rogue President Donald Trump Like JFK? / Politics / Intelligence Agencies

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The establishment elite still reeling from the failure of any of their bought and paid for candidates that populate both the Democratic and Republican parties to make it into the White house for the first time since perhaps JFK, are increasingly looking to the likes of the CIA to begin implementing the elite's PLAN B as President Elect Donald Trump takes office and starts to diverge from the elites interests.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Bonds, Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Silver Major Markets at Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: DeviantInvestor

Bonds have risen in a 35 year bull market. That bull market looks tired and probably peaked in July of 2016.

The U.S. Dollar Index recently hit 14 year highs. Has the dollar finally peaked? Has it turned downward since January 3, 2017?

Stocks have been rising since the 2009 crash lows. Rounded to the nearest point, the Dow hit 20,000. Was that enough to make a final top before a major turn downward?

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Stock Market Dow 20,000: A New Beginning...or The Beginning of The End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Clif_Droke

After touching the benchmark 20,000 level last month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has spent the last five weeks in a tight, narrow trading range just under this level. Famed trader Jesse Livermore theorized in his pseudonymous book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, that stocks are attracted to major round number levels. In the case of the Dow, the 20,000 level has generated more press and speculation among investors than any number since the formerly mythical 10,000 level was crossed in 1999. Clearly Dow 20,000 carries a tremendous psychological significance, even if it's a simple case of self-fulfilling prophecy.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Populism; the Danger? What About Debt? / Politics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Doug_Wakefield

In the spring of 2015, I placed the chart below on global debt levels at the opening of the article.  Notice the value of global debt in 2000, 2007 and then half way through 2014.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Gold Price 50-DMA Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday's alert, we wrote that the decline in the USD Index was likely a temporary phenomenon based on the investor's needless overreaction - the USD reversed and more than erased this week's decline. The metals' reaction was also in tune with our expectations - they reversed. Was this just a one-day phenomenon and will gold rally based on its recent breakout above its 50-day moving average or can we expect more declines in the following days?

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Turkey, 'Axis of Gold' and End of US Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Introduction
Buy Gold and Lira, Sell Dollars To End “Economic Sabotage” – PM of Turkey
Gold Imports to Turkey Surge 688% In December
‘Tough Turkey’ today
Affinity for gold to save the day?
Central bank gold demand
Personal accumulation
Country’s gold reserves
Turkey Iran gold conduit
Axis of Evil to Axis of Gold
Conclusion: Gold as an insurance policy

Thursday, January 19, 2017

The Most Important Market Chart on the Planet / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update you on the US dollar as it plays such an important role in so many different markets. Getting the big trend right on the US dollar can help you see what areas are affected by the dollar to invest in. There are alot of areas that have an inverse correlation to the dollar, such as commodities and the precious metals in particular.

Let start with just with just a simple daily line chart that shows the two year sideways trading range with the breakout and the backtest that is currently underway. As you can see this is actually the 2nd backtest to the top rail at the 100 area so there is no question the top rail is hot.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Stock Market Interesting, Mixed Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had an interesting, mixed session. A late rally on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 put them in the plus column, but the Dow did not get into the plus column, although it did come off the lows.

The day started out with a sharp pop to the upside, reaching 5058 Nasdaq 100, filling the gap from yesterday morning. The S&P 500 jumped as high as 2270 1/2, but couldn’t really get over yesterday’s high. The Nasdaq 100 was stronger today. They then pulled back midday, consolidated in wedges, and in the last hour, broke out and ran back up again.