Friday, January 27, 2017

BEA Estimates US 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter.

The quarter to quarter decline in the headline growth rate came from a number of sources: the growth of consumer spending on services was more than halved (down -0.68%), exports went into contraction (off a dramatic -1.69%) and imports were down yet another -0.86%. Partially offsetting those declines were upticks in consumer spending on goods (up +0.34%), and increases in the growth rate for commercial fixed investment (+0.65%) and inventories (+0.51%).

Friday, January 27, 2017

The Single Biggest Threat to Investing Success… and How to Manage It / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017

By: David_Galland

Dear Parader,

Have you ever encountered a rotten egg?

Remarkably, as someone who enjoys eggs with breakfast almost every day, I hadn’t.

At least until earlier this week when I came across my first, honest-to-goodness rotten egg. Or, should I say, it came across me—spraying out of the shell in all its rotten glory.

Friday, January 27, 2017

USD rebound cut short. SPX Flat / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The overnight bounce in USD futures was stymied by the Durable Goods hard data that crushed the hopes of a rebound. A Wave [iii] may have begun.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Dow 20K, US Debt $20 Trillion, Trump and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

by Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne

In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 20,000 earlier this week for the first time in its 132 year history to much media fanfare.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Basic Materials Stocks Sector Investing: Real Stuff Prices Are Rising / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update the Basic Materials sector as this area now looks like it's ready to resume its bull market. Also with the stock markets breaking out today, especially the INDU, this adds another layer of confirmation that the breakout is the real deal. As we've discussed previously there are many big cap Dow stocks that make up the XLB, Basic Materials fund, and with the INDU making a new all time high today there will be some individual components making new all time highs as well.

Friday, January 27, 2017

The Fed and Gold in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As everyone already knows, the Fed has finally hiked its interest rates for the second time in a decade and for the first time since December 2015, when it ended the zero interest rate policy. The chart below shows the current level of the effective federal funds rate after the recent move.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Stock Market Mixed Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a mixed session today. The day started off with a pop to the upside to new all-time highs, and then they pulled back down to retest successfully, particularly on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. By midday they reached their lows and tried to rally in the afternoon, but unfortunately, they were not able to break out, and pulled back into the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 32.46 at 20,100.91, 25 points off the all-time high. The S&P 500 was down 1.69 at 2296.68, 23 points off its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 5.45 at 5156.92, 12 points off its high.

Friday, January 27, 2017

This America, beacon on the hill, will survive this challenge / Politics / US Politics

By: Walter_Brasch

This is a globalized world. There is no changing this fact. There is no changing “climate science”. There is no changing the will of the people to be fair, when fairness commands it. There is no changing the slow-moving ascent of multiculturalism, racial integration and sexual equality; and no replacement for secular Democracy. Mr. Trump and the Republicans think it all can be unraveled with the stroke of a pen.

The masters of delusion might have convinced almost half of voters, but the other half will carry the torch into the future. The Women’s March in Washington and countless American cities proved their numbers don’t lie.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like / Economics / Inflation

By: EWI

Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like
Chart of the Day

Thursday, January 26, 2017

How to Cut US Infrastructure Costs in Half / Politics / Infrastructure

By: Ellen_Brown

Americans could save $1 trillion over 10 years by financing infrastructure through publicly-owned banks like the one that has long been operating in North Dakota.

President Donald Trump has promised to rebuild America’s airports, bridges, tunnels, roads and other infrastructure, something both Democrats and Republicans agree should be done. The country needs a full $3 trillion in infrastructure over the next decade. The $1 trillion plan revealed by Trump’s economic advisers relies heavily on public-private partnerships, and private equity firms are lining up for these plumbing investments. In the typical private equity water deal, for example, higher user rates help the firms earn annual returns of anywhere from 8 to 18 percent – more even than a regular for-profit water company might expect. But the price tag can come as a rude surprise for local ratepayers.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Precious Metals v. Mining Stocks: What You Need to Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith : Most readers of this column own (or plan to own) physical precious metals – gold and silver, perhaps even some platinum or palladium. They may also own mining stocks.

But which category is "best"? It's like asking, "What's the most efficient exercise?" or "What's the best fishing lure?" Truth be known, it's really about what you wish to accomplish! Here is my considered opinion...

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Samsung Galaxy S7 Edge - First Use (E3) / Personal_Finance / Mobile Technology

By: Adnaan_Walayat

What to expect from a Samsung Galaxy S7 on first use, the first time you turn the device on after unboxing and inserting a nano sim into the device which we covered in our previous two videos in this series.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

When Did The Fed Start Buying Stocks? - Indications Are When 'Taper' Ended! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

We see the forensic "finger prints" all over the economic and financial data that the Federal Reserve through a proxy likely Citadel Capital (or the Fed's CBOE Volume Options Agreement) has highly likely been buying the US equity market since its QE 3 "TAPER" ended in October 2014. We do know for a fact that the BOJ, SNB, PBOC, Norwegian and other central banks have been doing this as matter of normal monetary policy for some time and that 80% of all these central banks said they plan on buying more stocks this year. Why not the Federal Reserve? To see the forensic economic evidence more clearly, consider the following US indicators:

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Stock Market SP500 At New Record High, Will It Continue Even Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, January 26, 2017

UK Economy Post BrExit Boom! Academic and Mainstream Press Clueless Reporting Continues / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Its now over six months since the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, a message that clueless academics have continued to regurgitate across the mainstream press for the duration since. However, the most recent economic data continues to paint the exact opposite picture as GDP for the last 3 months of 2016 came in at a very healthy 0.6%. Which in itself followed 0.6% for the preceding quarter, a time when the UK economy was supposed to be in a state of economic collapse! A collapse that has FAILED to materialise! Instead the UK is probably the worlds fastest growing developed economy.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Will Theresa May Lap Dance for President Alt Trump? The Special Needs Relationship / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Is Theresa May making a huge blunder by running to see President Alt Trump? After all it will reek of desperation wanting to be the first leader to the meet and great America's emerging tyrant, especially as no other leader of significance is rushing to the White House. The British press has already worked itself up into a frenzy of expectations, one of a special trade deal for the special needs relationship, as Britain fulfills its destiny of leaving the European Union before it implodes.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

HMRC Self Assessment Online Filing System Down as Tax Return Deadline 2017 Looms / Personal_Finance / UK Tax & Budget

By: N_Walayat

HMRC's online system has been down for many if not most users for several hours today as the deadline for filing self assessment tax returns looms large (31st of Jan 2017). Tax payers trying to log into the system are typically met with the following message -

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Italy's Bank Rescue Foreshadows Nationalization of More EU Banks / Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Browne

On December 7, 2016, Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned following defeat in a national referendum, that he had supported, that would have changed the country's parliamentary system. The development, which represents just the latest sign of anti-EU sentiment spreading throughout Europe, was felt acutely by Italy's troubled banking sector. In particular, the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MdP) has been teetering on the brink of collapse and now may stand as a case study that may be encountered by other EU member nations.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Two Gold Ratios You Should Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As Gold and gold mining stocks approach strong resistance, we wonder if the outcome will be a sharp selloff or a period of bullish consolidation. While there are a handful of things we can examine (sentiment, momentum, relative strength, etc), today we will focus on Gold and its relative strength against two key markets. How Gold fares against Bonds and foreign currencies in the weeks ahead could be a hint of its trend heading into spring.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

SPX Makes its Final Probe? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has spent 54 market days (83 calendar days) from its November 3 low. It appears that Wave [c] is impulsive and Wave [c] equals Wave [a] at 2305.50, so we have near equality in the final probe to the top.

This is a typical zigzag formation that I hope we have seen the last of. There is no short entry above the Cycle Top and trendline at 2291.27.