Thursday, May 26, 2016
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
This is a long article...in summary:
The Short Story:
- $85 by Christmas 2016 sounds as far-fetched as the notion that when Oil was $100-Plus, it would crash!
- The Big Idea then, was that was a classic price bubble – and bubbles always bust
- That was based on a boring valuation for “Other-Than-Market-Value” (OTMV) done in line with very boring International Valuation Standards; nothing radical, no Black Magic, no Black Swans http://www.romacor.ro/legislatie/08-ivs2.pdf
- The “alleged” price-bubble, led “allegedly” to over-investment which led to over-supply
- That was probably thanks to central banks printing money to stimulate what Ludwig Von Mises called “mal-investment”, which is why you have central banks and “God’s Workers” ordained by Goldman Sachs
- The over-supply eventually caused a bust, predictably
- And then “over-investors” (and/or their banks), lost their shirts. That’s normal, it happens all the time; the only question is who pays; the latest idea of the Fed is the grand-children do.
- The model says bubble/bust is zero-sum and so the bust is over; because the supervisor of God’s Workers says so
- OTMV today appears to be about $85, so that’s where the price is headed now
- Unless shale oil comes back in a big way – that’s the only caveat.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Is the Derivatives Markets About to Implode the System Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
The 2008 Crash was caused by the unregulated derivatives markets. And if you think that problem has been fixed, you’re mistaken.
Consider Deutsche Bank (DB).
DB sits atop the largest derivatives book in the world.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Major Money Making Opportunity Just Triggered For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
It has now been a year since stocks hit a new all-time high.
That is correct, despite having two massive bounces, driven by tremendous Central bank intervention, the S&P 500 remains well below it all time high of 2130 established May 21 2015.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
U.S. Household Debt Still Below 2008 Peak / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Mike_Shedlock
Household Debt Summary
- Household debt for the first quarter of 2016 is up $136 billion.
- Mortgage debt, up $120 billion, accounts for most of the gain.
- Student loan debt, up $29 billion, accounts for most the rest.
- Total household debt still below 2008 peak
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Another Stock Market "line in the sand" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here is another probable reason for the rally ending. Although the trendline was broken in April, this may offer stiff resistance to the rally. We may find whether it holds in the next 24 hours.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Brexit: Wrong Discussion, Wrong People, Wrong Arguments / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’ve been a bunch of issues and topics on my -temporarily non-writing- mind, and politics, though as I’ve often said it’s not my preferred focus, keeps on slipping in. That’s not because I’ve gotten more interested in ‘the game’, but because the game itself is changing in unrecognizable fashion, and that is intricately linked to subjects I find more appealing.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
SPX is at Strong Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today’s Premarket shows us why there is always an alternate view of the Wave patterns. The decline to 2025.91 was too shallow and overlapping to be an impulse, although it could have been easily mistaken for one.
I have put in a “line in the sand” at 2084.87. The SPX rally may not stop precisely on it, but it may provide serious resistance to going much further.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
"Gold and Silver Bottom Is In" - Silver Guru tells Max Keiser / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
“Gold and silver bottom is in”, renowned silver analyst David Morgan tells Max Keiser on the Keiser Report and warns about paper and digital proxies for money and gold. Morgan, also known as the ‘Silver Guru’ of the TheMorganReport.com, talks to Max about the gold, silver and global bond markets and the ponzi scheme that are these markets.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
US Dollar, Back From the Grave? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
We’ll be leaving for home sometime tomorrow afternoon so I won’t be able to do a Wednesday Report. By the movements in the markets, today is actually a better day to do a Wednesday Report.
There are several times a year when the markets gives you an important inflection point. Today I believe we just witnessed one in regards to the PM complex, the US dollar and the stock markets. Even though the US dollar didn’t have an extremely big up day it did show its hand by breaking out of a downtrend channel while the PM complex had a tougher day breaking down from a small topping pattern we looked at earlier today. Also the stock markets had a very good day to the upside with some completing small double bottoms or falling wedges.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
It wasn’t much, a bit less than 4 tons to be exact, but today marked the first day in nearly a month that GLD reported a drawdown in gold holdings.
The last such occurrence was all the way back on April 25.
Considering the amount of gold that has been added since that time (66 tons), a 4 ton reduction is minor. What we will not want to see however is a PATTERN of falling reported gold holdings. That has been the one bright spot for gold that has held steady even in the face of weakness on the gold chart at the Comex. If this changes, then we have an issue.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Stock Market Opens with Big Bang on a Gap / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
It was turn-around Tuesday for the stock market as the indices roared from the get-go with breakaway gaps, strong morning moves, and then climbed upward all day on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 took a little afternoon rest, held support, and then came on late. In the last 30-40 minutes they pulled back a little bit to peel off from the highs, but it was a stellar session.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 213.12 at 17,706.05, 35-6 points off the high. The S&P 500 was up 28.02 at 2076.06, 3 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 89.20 at 4444.30, 5 points off its high.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
SPX, GDX and GLD: All Ready to Rollover? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Last week, I was looking for a big drop for the gold complex into May 19. We got a huge drop, but not the drop I was looking for. It seems gold is working out a 25- week low while GDX is trying to run 21 weeks to its low. This would place the final washout somewhere near mid month in June.
The stock market looks as though it is about ready to roll over into mid-June also. I have a possible 1807 target for the S&P 500 by or around June 14-15 and GDX 17.68 by or around June 13-14.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us / Stock-Markets / China
By: Harry_Dent
Like our resident market P.I. John Del Vecchio, Kyle Bass is one of those hedge fund managers who profited in the last crash when he bought credit default swaps to short the housing market.He’s also one of the few financiers in the market today who says there’s a reasonable chance the U.S. will fall into a recession over the coming months. But he’s really on the money when it comes to China.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: I_M_Vronsky
A recent insightful and timely article by internationally known analyst Graham Summers galvanized my attention. Graham’s focus was using Weekly Charts to demonstrate the accurate forecasts of Bear Markets in the US. His stock sell signal is based upon the Death Cross definition where the 50-week moving average falls below the 100-week moving average. Summers’s astute analysis speaks for itself:
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Price Stays below $450 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: short speculative positions, target at $153, stop-loss at $515.
Bitcoin has enjoyed a spell of decreased volatility which has led some commentators to draw parallels between the currency and other asset classes, gold being an example. On the Wall Street Journal website, we read:
In April, volatility in bitcoin’s price fell below that of gold for 28 consecutive days, the longest period in its history. Bitcoin volatility also briefly dropped below that of another flight-to-safety trade, the Japanese yen, according to data from FactSet and CoinDesk.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Australian Tax Office Declares War On Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Paul_Behan
The Australian Tax Office has started aggressively auditing Australian bullion dealers. One smaller dealer who had their own range of bullion rounds manufactured has taken the drastic decision to close their business. In Australia, there has always been a goods and services tax (GST) on collectors coins eg: proof coins, but generic bullion coins and bars have not attracted the 10% GST.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
"We're in the Biggest Financial Bubble Ever", say James Turk - Video / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Mario_Innecco
ok ya Tuesday May 24 to 2016 I'm gonna be interviewing James Turk he's the
founder of gold money and he also worked as an international bank of forty years
at the Chase Manhattan Bank and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority James would
you like to see a bit more about your background
well I got about 45 years of experience in international banking and finance but
my specialty is really cold and investment strategy I say and one
question I would like to ask you don't think is quite important for the
listeners of my channel is why why is gold money you know like gold money and
explain to people you know the history maybe of our involved as money
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
First Soros... Now Jim Rogers Predicts Trillion-Dollar 'Biblical' Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jeff_Berwick
Last year, we were the first financial site to explain how the Shemitah seven-year cycle would have an important and disastrous effect on the markets. The Shemitah ended in the third quarter of last year and just as we predicted, it was the worst quarter in worldwide stock markets since the last Shemitah in 2008.
Since then we have been the leader in explaining further Shemitah trends embedded in the once-every-49-year, Jubilee Year. The Jubilee Year ends on October 2nd of this year, and we expect even worse events to occur as October approaches.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Stock Market Negative Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started out with a nice move to the upside and reached their peak early morning, they came down midday, bounced around in the afternoon, tried to rally back mid-afternoon, and then rolled over hard to finish at the session lows.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 8.01 at 17,492.93, 158 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 4.28 at 2048.04, 7 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was down 7.80 at 4355.10, 27 points off its high.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Stock Market Trading Between The 20's And 200's... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
For fourteen of the past fifteen days the S&P 500 has been trading between the 20- and 200-day exponential moving averages. Neither side has been able to take control. Boring beyond words. Day after day we move basically nowhere. The volatility is gone for now. I have no idea what catalyst will come along to allow for a breakout, but you don't know if you can even trust when the move occurs. The 20-day is at 2059. The 200-day is at 2024. When one breaks we should expect a directional move. It should, but who knows for sure. This market has opposing forces working. The bulls have the Yellen. Low rates are here to stay. Yes, we'll see a rate hike in June, but she won't be promising anything aggressive after that as the global economic environment is not good. Rates will still be very low after the June hike, so big money won't likely be running out.
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