Thursday, September 17, 2015

U.S. Fed Must Avoid Bank of Japan Errors / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

No, the US is not Japan and the Federal Reserve is not the Bank of Japan. But when we assess the implications of what could be the first Fed rate after 7 years of zero interest rate policy in the US, there's no better reference than the BoJ.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Shale Oil Delusion: Why The Party's Over For U.S. Tight Oil / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

The party is over for tight oil.

Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies.

Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stock Market Short Interest Off The Charts...Fed On Deck.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

A new report came out this morning showing trader-short interest is at an all-time high. Nothing like fear to create a more bullish environment. The short interest here is at a greater level than at any time during the 2000-bear market or the 2009-bear market That's almost impossible to believe, but that's what the numbers are showing. Most folks know the rule of this crazy game with regards to following the herd. Never do it! If the masses get too bullish it's probably not a bad idea to start removing most of your long holdings. No different than when things get far too bearish. Right now the trading world is far too bearish, which tells me that over time it's more likely, though no guarantee, that we'll get through S&P 500 1993 before losing S&P 500 1867. Taking out 1993 would negate the bearish-bear flag pattern, and set things up more balanced between the two sides. Then it would be more about sentiment.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Syria's Economy Not Shaken by ISIS / Economics / Syria

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The fog of war has removed any sense of certainty regarding developments on the Syrian battlefield. That said, we know that ISIS has captured several towns, and that waves of Syrian refugees are disembarking upon Europe's shores. But, the picture remains chaotic and hazy.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Refugee Crisis is a Far Bigger Risk to Your Money than the Fed or China / Stock-Markets / Refugee Crisis

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Today we’re going to talk about the 800 pound gorilla in the room. No politician will touch it and no citizen wants to acknowledge it in an era where political correctness has run amok.

But we have to.

“It” is Europe’s desperate refugee crisis, and “it” is by far the single biggest threat to your money today. You’re not hearing about this at the moment but you will in the months ahead.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Gold Price Bottom - 90% Of Traders Are Always Wrong At Major Turns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

For about the last year and a half I’ve been warning that gold was being driven down to test the last C-wave top ($1033). No one believed me.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Should You Actually Worry About Gold Confiscation? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

Guy Christopher writes: Most gold owners are familiar with worries of forced government gold confiscation - that one day black-ops shock teams will toss homes to find that stash of coins and bars.

The sole historical source for the modern fear of "confiscation" was President Franklin Roosevelt's 1933 Executive Order 6102 telling America to cough up its gold in the midst of The Great Depression.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Jim Rogers on Timeless Investing Strategies You Can Use to Profit Today / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: Casey_Research

By Nick Giambruno

Recently I spoke with Jim Rogers about the most important investment lessons he has learned over the years.

Jim is a legendary investor and true international man. He’s always ahead of the game. Jim made a bundle by investing in commodities in the 1990s when they were out of favor with Wall Street. He’s also made large profits investing in crisis markets.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Stock Market Sectors, Does Anyone Win With an Interest Rate Hike? / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes: Editorial Note: It’s the big moment investors have been waiting for. As we write, the Fed is meeting to decide if it will raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. And while there won’t be any official announcement until Thursday, folks are understandably on edge. But should you be?

We asked Matthew Carr to do what he does best - to sift through decades of market data and uncover the real effect of rate hikes on stocks. We hope you enjoy his commentary. And afterward, if you’re still worried, click here to see how our Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green is preparing Oxford Club Members for the end of the bull market.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

The Fallacy of "Buy Land — They’re Not Making Any More" / Housing-Market / Land

By: MISES

Peter St. Onge writes: “Buy land — they’re not making any more!” is an old investing chestnut, and a common sense one to boot. Economically, it’s also completely false.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, we make land all the time. It just doesn’t look like land.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Lowdown on U.S. Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Will she raise or will she not? As financial markets focus on whether we will see a Fed rate hike this week, investors may be in for a rude awakening.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Petrobras - Bad News Continues For This State-Owned Giant / Companies / Oil Companies

By: DailyWealth

Today's chart shows that one of our most important warnings is ringing true again: Avoid long-term investments in government-owned companies.

Over the last few years, we've written several times about why investing with the government as your partner is a bad idea... especially in government-owned companies headquartered in foreign countries with traditions of fiscal mismanagement. Politicians are great at spending money and pandering to mobs... but they're terrible at running projects for profit.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Investors Earn Big Yields in the "Sweet Spot" of the American Economy / Companies / Investing 2015

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Most investors have a major blind spot...

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hike - Will The Fed Pick A Winning Combination? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s highly amusing to read all the ‘expert’ theories on a Federal Reserve hike or no hike tomorrow, but it’s also obvious that nobody really has a clue, and still feel they should be heard. Don’t know if that’s so smart, but I guess in that world being consistently wrong is not that big a deal.

Thing is, US economic numbers are so ‘massaged’ and unreliable, the Fed can pick whichever way the wind blows to argue whatever decision it makes. As long as jobs numbers get presented for instance without counting the 90-odd million Americans who are not in the labor force, and a majority of new jobs are waiters, just about anything goes in that area. Numbers on wages are just as silly.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Economic Consequences of the Syrian Refugee Invasion / Politics / Immigration

By: BATR

The dual peril of unfettered migration into Europe and the United States has a different complexion of invaders, but both suffer an appalling economic aftermath. However, the flood gates from the Middle East and Africa “so called” refugees are destined to overcome and hasten the breakup of the European Union. Just note the impact from not defending the borders of Europe, both placing terminal pressure on the economies and finances of EU countries, but also from the social dissolution of Western societies.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Big Banks Cutting Tens Of Thousands Of Jobs; Huge Implications / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: John_Rubino

Money center banks — which over the past few decades have grown into the biggest financial entities the world has ever seen — appear to have hit a wall, and are now shedding tens of thousands of workers.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2015 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 15% drop in average stock prices during the past month has galvanised a growing number of bears to once more dig out ancient text book reasons for why this is the time for the stocks bear market to finally begin, and not only that but keep making definitive statements for the expectations for market crash's that always fail to materialise for the obvious reason that a crash is a panic event that can only at best be discerned no earlier than during the preceding day. Even then the probability would favour the market ending higher on the so called crash day because market crashes are NOT common events.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

U.S. Stocks: End of the Complacent Era? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Stock market bears have been conspicuously absent

August 20 was the third consecutive down day for the Dow Industrials as the index tumbled 358 points.

The U.S. stock market had managed to hover near record highs, even as other markets (oil, precious metals, housing) had long since fallen from old highs. The 34-year bull market in 30-year U.S. government bonds ended months ago.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Governments Give Migrants a Disastrous Mix of Social Welfare and Bureaucracy / Politics / Immigration

By: MISES

Justin Murray writes: On August 27, 2015, seventy-one refugees were discovered suffocated in an abandoned, locked transport truck in Austria just across the border with Hungary. These individuals, reported as refugees fleeing from the civil war in Syria, made a trek of over 1,000 miles. This is just a long string in the growing refugee and migration crisis hitting Europe over the past few years, with 2,500 estimated deaths from capsizing ships in the Mediterranean alone, of the nearly half million people crossing into Europe over the course of 2014–2015.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss / Economics / US Economy

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.