Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Fed Interest Rate Tightening Cycles and USD Performance / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Is the peak of the US dollar behind us? Depending on your USD measure of choice, the dollar may have already peaked, when using EUR and JPY, the two largest and most liquid currencies aside from the greenback. If the bulk of the USD bull market starting in summer 2014 was based on heightened expectations of a Fed hike, then would an actual Fed hike signal the peak of the US dollar? Here is our analysis on the response of the US dollar to each of the last three Fed tightening cycles (1994-1995, 1999-2000 and 2004-2006). One common theme was found.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
September Stock Market Crash Cycle / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: BATR
All experienced stock market experts are proficient in the concept of economic cycles. While they may not always predict the future, their study of time relationships to trends and prices are important factors in reading the market. Just remember, markets are rigged so adherence to ridged oscillations for predicting the movement of financial instruments is not a pure science.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Job Quit Rates and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Looking for Greener Pastures?
A Chicago Fed report investigates Job Switching and Wage Growth.
Read full article... Read full article...People generally switch jobs by quitting (rather than losing) their previous job. Furthermore, the vast majority of people observed quitting their job tend to move directly to a new job, rather than becoming unemployed or exiting the labor force. Therefore, estimates of worker quits provide a good measure of job switching in the U.S. economy.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Immigration: A Political and Economic Issue / Politics / Immigration
By: John_Browne
Donald Trump has successfully placed immigration at the center of the U.S. Presidential election. But while the issue is still largely a debating point in the United States, it has quickly and violently become a life and death issue for the European Union, which is in the midst of the most significant immigration and refugee crisis since the Second World War.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Stock Market Crash Sees the Fed Lost Half Its $4 Trillion Bet in 1 Week / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Rodney_Johnson
Since the financial crisis, central banks have injected trillions of dollars into the global economy. Their goal: to offset the natural downturn from slowing demographic trends and the crushing debt loads of the greatest credit bubble in history.The Federal Reserve alone has created $4 trillion in QE since late 2008. They tried to solve an unprecedented debt crisis by adding more debt.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2015
US Housing Market - It's 2008 All Over Again / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
You might have thought it was a good idea when the government started taking all the profits of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA, or Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC, or Freddie Mac).After all, the two quasi-private mortgage insurance giants had sucked a lot of profit out of the markets over the decades, and then required over $180 billion in bailout money from taxpayers. Why not get a little of the bailout cash back, right?
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Abenomics Stalls, So What’s Japan Supposed To Do Now? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Rubino
It was just three years ago that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised to pull Japan out of its “lost decades” by printing epic amounts of new yen. He got what he wanted from the Bank of Japan, which bought up pretty much all the available government debt with newly-created currency. After hardly changing at all in the previous seven years, the BoJ’s balance sheet — a proxy for its money creation — tripled.
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
When Stock Market Volatility Is Your Best Friend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Most people who talked to me about the market last week were shaking their heads, trying to make sense of the extreme up-and-down moves. But a few smart investors simply shrugged their shoulders and said, “I don’t care. I’m selling the volatility, so it’s been great for me.”
What they mean is that they are selling options - calls and puts. And they’re not selling them to close positions. They’re starting new ones, but selling first and buying them back when they’re cheaper.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
One of the Best Opportunities When the Stock Market Recovers / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: It's a scary time to buy stocks...
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Stock Market Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For some time now, I have been observing bearish “cracks” appearing within the stock markets. The speed of the market’s drop, during the month of August, came as no surprise to me.
The bear market rally ended last week, after it had a 50% retracement of its initial decline. By Friday, September 4th, 2015, the index was trying to hold on, so as to support that which was created by a critical short- term trend line that had already been violated. The DJIA weekly chart gives a good argument by expressing the view that a bear market may already have begun.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
The Most Important Geopolitical Trend of the Next Decade…Here’s How to Profit / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno
The bloodbath was merciless.
In 1842, 16,500 British soldiers and civilians withdrew from Kabul, Afghanistan. Only one would survive.
It was the most humiliating military disaster in British history. The death toll sealed Afghanistan’s reputation as “the graveyard of empires.”
It was the desire for control of Central Asia that sucked the British Army into its Afghan disaster.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Muddling Through Shanghai Stock Market and Chinese Economy / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: John_Mauldin
“He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.” – Sun Tzu
A couple of weeks ago I was complaining about 47,000 China reports clogging my e-mail. The number now feels like it is well into six figures (perhaps a slight exaggeration). Maybe my memory is going, but there wasn’t nearly as much China talk on the way up. Funny how that works.
Is China collapsing? I think parts of China are under severe pressure if not outright recession, and clearly the stock market is a disaster. Anyone who bought Shanghai or Shenzhen stocks on margin this year is probably on the brink.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
7 Reasons the Stocks Bear Market Has Just Begun / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Michael_Pento
On March 10th 2009 the US stock market hit an intraday low and put in the now-famous “Haines bottom”--coined after my friend, the late great Mark Haines, who made one of the most prescient calls in market history. It should be noted by the time that fateful day arrived it was virtually impossible to find a single bull out of all the geniuses on Wall Street.
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Crude Oil, Silver, Gold and Real Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
I’m not convinced!
- Supposedly crude oil prices will stay low for a long time and perhaps drop into the $20’s. The Internet is filled with reasons explaining why crude oil prices will drop. A few are:
- Saudi Arabia is a swing producer and will provide what the world needs, regardless of price, because Saudi Arabia needs the revenue and employment for its people.
- Iranian oil will soon hit the market and provide even more supply.
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
China Buys 16 Tons Gold In August – Dumps $94 Billion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Given the strong demand fundamentals, particularly out of China, gold should go higher but as ever there is a risk of selling in the futures market leading to weakness in the short term as traders follow momentum and ignore fundamentals.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Silver and Deflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Hubert_Moolman
How does silver perform during deflation? Which is better during a deflation – silver or gold? The answers will depend on quite a few things as well as what definition of deflation one uses.
If you look at monetary history, then you will find that we have moved from periods where mostly real or tangible assets like gold and silver acted as monetary claims on goods and services in the economy, to today where mostly credit or debt claims (fiat currencies like the US dollar) act as monetary claims on goods and services. Therefore, we have moved from a real asset-based monetary system to a debt-based monetary system.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Dangerous is The Best Way to Explain The Banking Stocks Index Now ... / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Hubert_Moolman
The ($BKX) Banking Index did hold at its rising channel's support line last week. However there is concern for later because the support line was breached for two days before the Banking Index found its way back into the range.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
The Default Next Move For Crude Oil Price Is Downwards, And Here's Why / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As traders, investors and pundits, we all like to think that what we do is akin to a science. We believe that by working harder and being smarter we can give ourselves an edge, that enough research will reveal to us the next move, either a long term trend or an intraday blip on a chart, and that we can profit from that knowledge. Usually, especially over longer time spans, we are correct in that assumption. Sometimes, however, no amount of fundamental or technical analysis will help.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Here's Your Insurance Against a $200 Trillion Debt Bubble Crash / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.comPeter Krauth writes: The world is awash in debt, and it's simply unsustainable. As worldwide debt levels keep setting new records, there's no chance anyone will ever be paid back.
Even "vampire squid" Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), with its tentacles deep into bond markets, thinks so.
The world's central banks now have an insurmountable dilemma: Raising interest rates will just increase the repayment burden. Keeping them low will only inflate the debt bubbles all over.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Europe's Best Real Estate Investments for 2016 / Housing-Market / European Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
With the global stock markets currently in uncertain territory, many investors are once again turning toward bricks and mortar as a preferred place to put their money. The chaotic Chinese economy and ever-falling oil prices are two of the main factors making many other types of investment look particularly risky right now. However, the recovery in European property prices has been one of the major success stories of the aftermath of the global banking crisis, so savvy investors will be studying where to buy real estate in the coming year.