Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Since last spring we’ve written over and over again about a Fed rate cut being the catalyst for a bull move in gold stocks.

The history is almost bulletproof. Many lows in gold stocks over the past 60 years coincided with the end of rate hikes.

At present the Federal Reserve is in pause mode and the market is on the cusp of pricing in a rate cut. Friday, Fed funds futures showed a 56% chance of a rate cut by January 2020.

Monday, March 25, 2019

What Do Air Plane Crashes and the Precious Metals Markets Have in Common? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration worked closely together to hustle a new passenger jet through the safety certification process. The combined efforts to save time and cost, coupled with little sense of accountability, resulted in a tragic safety flaw.

Now hundreds of passengers are dead, albeit in other countries. The public is finding the enormous trust placed in the manufacturer and the agency tasked with monitoring safety was badly misplaced.

The regulator tasked with safety appeared more interested in protecting Boeing’s monopoly and bottom line.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Message to Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Kemala Harris, Tulsi Gabbard and the rest of the crew: you can stop asking for campaign donations, because you no longer stand a chance in the 2020 elections. Your own party, and the media who support you, made sure of that. Or rather, the only chance you would have is if you guys start another smear campaign against your president, and I wouldn’t recommend that.

I don’t want to start another Lock Her Up sequence, that’s too ugly for my taste. But three parties in this No Collusion disaster must be held accountable: US intelligence, the Democratic party, and the media. You can’t just let it go, too much water under the bridge. No can do. “The Democrats need to move on”, a recent ‘soft line’, is not good enough. They must be held to account.

Bill Barr can investigate the FBI and DOJ, but the obstacles there are obvious: investigating the investigators. The Democratic party would mean going after individuals, but sure, let’s see what Loretta Lynch, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Maxine Waters have to say for themselves and take it from there, before you get to Hillary. The media, though, is something else altogether.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Trump has promised to free the US of debt. He pledged to pay all federal debt off in eight years.

But so far, it’s been just talk. Two years into Trump’s presidency, the US national debt has grown by $2 trillion.

The official, on-the-books federal debt is now at $22.1 trillion. $22.1 trillion is the face amount of all outstanding Treasury paper, including so-called “internal” debt.

It comes to about 105% of GDP, and that’s only the federal government.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Thursday's advance and continued lower ahead of the weekend. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October on Thursday. So was the Friday's sell-off a medium-term downward reversal or still just a correction?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.8-2.5% on Friday, as investors' sentiment worsened following some global economic data releases. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge traded just around 3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. But then it got close to the 2,800 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,820, marked by the recent support level. The next resistance level is at 2,850-2,860, marked by the early October local lows. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,800, marked by the recent resistance level and the daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Mortgage Providers Encourage First-time Buyers Cutting Margins on 95% loans / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the margin between the average two-year fixed mortgage rate at maximum 95% and 90% loan-to-value (LTV) is at its narrowest since February 2013, with the difference between these two higher LTV rates currently standing at 0.65%, down from a high of 1.57% in October 2017. This has been driven by average rates at 95% LTV falling dramatically since then, offering hope for borrowers who can only amass a 5% deposit.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Potentially Powerful Stock Market Headwinds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

For the past four Sundays, my technical work has been focused on the extent of the post-Christmas recovery rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) in relation to the Sep-Dec 2018 correction from the Sep 21 all-time high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.

Since mid-Feb, when the SPX climbed and sustained above the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone at 2713.70 (+1% target overshoot at 2740.84), I have been refocused on the next higher 76.4% Fib resistance level at 2803.50 (+1% target overshoot at 2832). Purely from a Fibonacci perspective, the 2803.50 to 2832 zone on the SPX represented the next natural resistance zone from where the recovery rally might exhaust itself.

Monday, March 25, 2019

20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been glued to Gold, Silver and the Precious Metals sector for many months. We believe the current setup in Gold is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for skilled traders to stake positions below $1300 before a potentially incredible upside price move.  We’ve been alerting our members and follower to this opportunity since well before the October/December 2018 downside price rotation in the US markets.

October 5, 2018: Prepare for a gold and silver rally

December 9, 2018: Waiting for gold to erupt

Jan 25, 2018: Why everyone is talking about gold and silver

Monday, March 25, 2019

Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

There is a ratio chart, $Gold:$XAU, we haven’t looked at in quite awhile that has helped us in the past to locate some important turning points for the PM stocks. I’m not going to get into all the details tonight but this ratio chart shows you just how undervalued the $XAU or precious metals stocks in general are to gold itself. From the mid 1980’s to the 2008 GFC crash the horizontal blue line was a good place to buy your gold and silver stocks and when the ratio fell to the red line it was a good place to sell those stocks.

Everything changed dramatically between gold and the gold stocks during that 2008 crash period. The green circle on the XAU shows where the failure occurred. Instead of the ratio dropping down to the red line like it had always done before the ratio broke out above the blue horizontal line in a way it had never done previously. At the time I labeled that initial high as the highest the ratio had ever been in history thinking the price action would decline back into the old trading range between the blue and red lines. As you can see that wasn’t the case at all. Instead of getting back to normal the ratio began to go parabolic to the upside and finally topped out in January of 2016 as shown by the small double top, yellow shaded area. That also marked the bottom for the XAU.

Monday, March 25, 2019

EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review / Personal_Finance / Gaming

By: Sami_Walayat

This is a review of two models of EasySMX Wireless Game Controllers that we bought from Amazon for use with PC's, PS3 and android phones.

1. With a rechargeable battery that costs £20 https://amzn.to/2YtJ8VY

2. Requires two AA rechargeable batteries that costs £18 https://amzn.to/2UU4eKV

The rechargable controller comes with a recharging cable and both come with a USB stick and work with PC's, PS3 and android phones amongst other devices. See the video for our full review and why we consider these to be good 'cheap' games controllers.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Stock Market Short-term Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!

Intermediate trend –  Need more time and data to assess the market’s intermediate action.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, March 24, 2019

UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences / Housing-Market / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from Part 1 (UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

US Bonds Call “BS” on the Stock Market Ramp-A-Thon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Jerome Powell burst the Everything Bubble… and now he’s desperately trying to put it back together again.

Having generated the single largest mis-allocation of capital in history from 2008-2016 by manipulating bond yields to extraordinary lows, the Fed, lead by new Fed Chair Jerome Powell decided it’d be wise to embark on the single most aggressive tightening schedule in history.

I started warning that this would blow up in spectacular fashion as early as July-August 2018. The issue was not the Fed tightening, but the pace at which it was tightening. There was no real reason for the Fed to raise rates and engage in QT at the pace it did. Only a fool would think that doing this wasn’t going to cause some serious damage to a financial system that was more leveraged than any other time in history.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Earlier this week, the Fed left its target Fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50%. In addition, the Fed indicated that it had turned dovish. Rather than two Fed funds rate hikes in 2019, the Fed has now signaled that there will be none. And that’s not all. Starting in May, the Fed will reduce its balance sheet unwind of its Treasury holdings to $15 billion per month from $30 billion, and that it will end the unwind in September.

All this dovishness must have warmed the cockles of President Trump’s heart. For some time, Trump has been targeting the Fed with Twitter storms that have complained that the Fed has been too hawkish.

Well, the Fed apparently saw what the President saw. Or, maybe not. After all, one line of argument used to support the Fed’s new dovish stance is that the stance is necessary given the uncertainties that abound—both at home and abroad (read: regime uncertainties being created by President Trump himself).

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and MoneyMetals.com columnist joins me and reviews the key reasons why we ought to own precious metals -- and discusses the risks of NOT acting now when the price of silver is still cheap. He also discusses why he believes the set-up for the next bull leg higher in metals is going to be different than the false breakout we saw back in 2016. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, as bulls and bears battle for control of the gold and silver markets, doves have gained full control of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed announced no change in interest rates – a decision which was expected. But policy makers went further and suggested there would be NO rate hikes at all for the REST of the year.

Bloomberg News Anchor: Doves fly, the pause continues, no change in the Fed's target rate and they are done for the year. The Dot Plot now calls for no rate increase in 2019.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 now within 3% of its all-time highs. Meanwhile, various leading economic indicators are showing similarities to previous bull market tops.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks / Currencies / US Dollar

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why the dollar breakdown after the Fed's rate announcement is good news for precious metals.

The Fed statement that it won't be raising rates again this year had a dramatic effect on both the dollar and the precious metals sector. The dollar had been struggling to make further progress for some time and the Fed statement kicked the crutches out from under it, and it broke sharply lower, as we can see on its latest 1-year chart below. It broke below its 200-day moving average, the 1st time it has been below it for almost a year, and it also broke it down below its uptrend. This was a development made all the more serious and decisive by the fact that it is currently tightly bunched with its moving averages, which means that it is at a key inflexion point—it could have broken either way, but the Fed has decided its direction with its stated policy not to raise rates this year.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been rallying on balance in recent months, carving a solid young upleg.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their latest fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are faring fundamentally.  Their operating and financial performance is very important for investors, as the mid-tier realm is where most of the gold-stock sector’s gains accrue.  They fared really well in a challenging quarter.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.