Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Are You Ready for the Next Big Move in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you were following our research, you would have known that Gold had reached a short-term peak in February. On Feb 19th the day gold posted a huge gain for the day and everyone was bullish and feeling like million bucks I did a radio show with HoweStreet’s Jim Goddard and said that strong day and overly positive sentiment was the going to be the top, which it was – Listen Here.

We had been advising our members that Gold would likely retrace below $1300 possibly beeper by and mid-April.  Our advanced Adaptive Learning price modeling systems had warned us that Gold would likely setup a price rotation before the next move higher back in January 2019.  This is what you need to know about the next 4+ weeks in Gold.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Draghi Won’t Send a Rate Hike Gift to the Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB eased its monetary stance. It launched another round of cheap loans to banks and promised to keep interest rates unchanged this year. It means that Draghi will not hike during his presidency. What does it all mean for the gold market?

ECB Unveils New Monetary Stimulus in Response to Slowdown

The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. But it pushed out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest. As we can read in the monetary policy statement.

The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. 

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Should We Rethink Nuclear Power? / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: OilPrice_Com

While it seems to fly in the face of everything we believe and have been taught about nuclear power, it may actually be the safest form of power production that we have. Ironically, the immense potency of the power of splitting an atom is simultaneously what makes nuclear weapons so dangerous as well as what makes nuclear power so safe.

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Palladium Hits Record High / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold is no longer the most valuable precious metal! Palladium dethroned it! We invite you, thus, to read our today’s article about that metal and find out what is the fundamental outlook for the palladium market.

We have a new record! Please take a look at the chart below, which displays the palladium prices since the beginning of the year. As one can see, the price of palladium soared in the first two months more than 20 percent, jumping above $1,500!

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher.  Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April.  Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.

How do we know this?  We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data.  This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above.  When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.

Friday, March 08, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

I know it may have come as a shock to some of you on why I raised some capital by selling a few PM stocks today. Whenever you see a false breakout of any chart pattern and the price action trades below the bottom rail of the original pattern that can setup a bearish situation. It’s like a head fake. The stock forms what looks like a great breakout and maybe even accompanied by a breakout gap. Everything looks fine. Then you get the backtest to confirm the breakout. Sometimes we can see several days of backtesting waiting for the breakout move to begin.

The first sign of trouble is when you see the price action trade below the breakout point or below the top rail in this case the bullish rising wedge. Many times the trade can still be saved if the bottom rail of the rising wedge ends up holding support. Once the bottom rail gives way then red flags start flying that something is amise. Many times when you see a false breakout of a chart pattern you can see a strong move in the opposite direction. Again, its like a head fake that gets you moving in the wrong direction before the real move takes place.

Lets start by looking at a daily chart for AU which built out a very nice looking rising wedge formation complete with a breakout gap above the top rail. AU was one of the leaders and it looked like it was showing the way higher for the PM stocks but after the reversal bar at the top of the chart AU declined back into the rising wedge negating the breakout. All was not lost yet as the bottom rail of the falling wedge could still provide support and save the pattern. Once the bottom rail was lost that put me on high alert to watch the price action very carefully for more deterioration. Monday morning AU opened with a downside gap and today the price action closed below the 50 day ema which strongly suggested to me it was time to get out of this trade.

Friday, March 08, 2019

Gold and the Political Theater: Is The Tail Wagging the Dog? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As the old saying goes, politics is a show business for ugly people. Fair enough, but what does it have to do with gold? Let’s jump right in and find out!

There Is No Trade War

Economic reports are rarely fun. But when we read the latest US trade report, we could not help but laugh. It turns out that the US goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion, or almost 19 percent, from $50.3 billion in November. For 2018, the goods and services deficit was $621.0 billion, an increase of $68.8 billion or 12.5 percent, from 2017. In other words, despite Trump’s “America First” policies and trade wars, including tariffs aimed at shrinking the trade deficit, the US trade gap has widened. Actually, it surged to a 10-year high last year, as one can see in the chart below. As if that was not enough, the shortfall with China hit a record peak! Isn’t that funny?

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The recent rally showed quite a bit of promise.

Gold stocks surged past their long-term moving averages while breadth indicators surpassed all prior bear market peaks (excluding 2016). 71% of the HUI and 81% of GDXJ closed above the 200-day moving average.

GDX and GDXJ looked to be on their way to $25 and $37, with Gold approaching $1360/oz and those breadth figures on the way to hitting 90%.

However, the stock market rebound pushed past its initial resistance and precious metals reversed course yet again before hitting those targets.

Other than 1985-1987 there has never been a bull market in precious metals without their simultaneous outperformance of the stock market.

Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Warren Buffett’s Confusion & Disorientation about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Warren Buffett’s famed annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders landed in the mail last week. Buffett has built a vast fortune investing in the shares of publicly traded companies. He has long been critical of gold. His most recent letter takes another swipe at the precious metal and implores readers to buy stocks instead.

Before his fans start dumping gold and calling their stock brokers, we thought it would be worth examining Buffett’s argument.

Buffett got started investing in 1942. He bought $114.75 worth of shares and says had that amount been invested in a no-fee S&P 500 Index Fund, the current value would be $606,811.

Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Gold’s Upcoming Plunge: The Powerful Analogies, Confirmations and Reasoning / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver and mining stocks plunged on Friday and the yellow metal closed the week below the $1,300 barrier. The gold-silver ratio soared once again and it all happened in tune with our expectations, and despite the recent dovish comments from the Fed. And – believe it or not – we have something much more important and exciting about the precious metals sector to tell you today. 

Remember the analogy between 2012-2013 decline and the current situation in gold, silver, and mining stocks? We featured it in the previous year and the entire sector appeared to be declining in tune with it. The last few months of 2018, however, along with the initial part of this year, seemed to have entirely invalidated this analogy. But did they?

Over the weekend we dedicated a lot of time to analysis of the long-term charts and as we’re going to show you, it turns out that the analogy between 2012-2013 plunge and the current situation is definitely in place, but we had been earlier in the analogy than we originally thought. What we thought to be a decline similar to the late-2012 slide, was actually the smoothened version of the early-2012 decline. The most recent upswing is just like the mid-2012 upswing. And it seems to have ended.

Monday, March 04, 2019

Gerald Celente Reveals Triggers for World Economic Blowup, Gold Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always a joy to speak with him.

Mr. Celente, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Oh, thanks for having me on, Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, the Trends Journal is forecasting Economic 9/11 as one of the big trends for 2019. There are plenty of indicators which just support your thesis for a major slowdown. Debt levels – both public and private – have exploded, China is slowing down and all the stimulus in Europe has failed to generate results there. Higher interest rates are hurting, everything from real estate to auto sales, et cetera. But none of this is reflected in the stock markets, which are roaring higher. Once again, it looks like the Fed is up to its old tricks, promising to stop the rate hikes they had planned and end the program for selling bonds. The constant intervention of the Fed has always been one of the major wildcards when trying to predict where things are headed in recent years. What do you think? Can the central bankers kick the can one more time to avoid a recession, or are they finally going to lose control in the months ahead?

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Is the Worst Behind for Crude Oil Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil made yesterday another hesitant move higher. Also yesterday, we mentioned here the saying regarding gravity. Sometimes, it takes patience for the underlying forces to win out. Or, doesn't the oil market rather remind you more of a coiled spring actually? Accordingly, what is the position favored most by the odds right now?

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been climbing higher on balance, enjoying a solid upleg that is gathering steam.  That’s fueling improving sentiment, driving more interest in this small contrarian sector.  This gold-stock upleg is likely to grow in coming months, partially because of very-favorable spring seasonals.  The gold stocks’ second-strongest seasonal rally of the year typically unfolds between mid-March to early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time in the calendar year.

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Natural Gas Bottom Rotation Sets Up New Opportunities / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our recent UGAZ trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members.  We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders.  Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.

The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now.  Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial.  The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15.  These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.

Friday, March 01, 2019

GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold

As I have said before, my job on FATrader.com is to further intellectual honesty about financial markets but cutting through much of the dross being presented by most analysts and media outlets.

So, as I am known to do, I will peruse the various posting through the interest for something interesting and then write about it. And, while I cannot say what GATA writes is “interesting,” I can say it is always provides fodder for presenting why so many do not understand the gold market.

In its latest missive, GATA takes umbrage with Mark Hulbert’s latest article on gold To that end, they write:

“Hulbert notes that gold often fails to correlate with inflation, though it is widely supposed to. Indeed, gold's underperformance of inflation in recent decades has been a major disparagement of the monetary metal.

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Peak Gold Is Not Bullish For Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

For over a year now, the South African mining industry has experienced a measurably significant decline in the amount of gold produced.  Statistics reported by South Africa last week show that the amount of gold produced by South African mines has declined for fifteen consecutive months. In December, gold output dropped thirty-one percent from the year before.

All mines, including gold, have a useful life which is determined by the ‘extraction period’ – the period of time during which recovery of the desired mineral deposit is procured. The output over time tends to grow at first, reach a peak, and then decline. 

As the decline in output for a particular mine grows, the extraction process eventually proves unprofitable. After a certain point, it is no longer feasible to pursue the activity.

Thursday, February 28, 2019

US Dollar Set to Rally and Gold Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends.  We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.

A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”.  We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place.  We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold.  We believe the US Dollar strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).

Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.

Lesson learned.

Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Gold and Silver Prepare For A Momentum Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3~5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general US stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.​

Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators.  The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the US stock market since the December 24th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level.  It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10~15+ days in the US stock market.  This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.