Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Autumn is just around the corner, and while the precious metals tasted some success most recently, the medium-term is still set for a downtrend.
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticking to his dovish guns and U.S. nonfarm payrolls elongating the central bank’s perceived taper timeline, gold, silver, and mining stocks were extremely happy campers. However, with event-driven rallies much more semblance than substance, I warned on Sep. 7 that the rollercoaster of emotions would likely end in tears.
I wrote:
With the 2013 analogue leading the gold miners down an ominous path, the HUI Index and the GDX ETF have rallied by roughly 8% off their recent lows. However, identical developments occurred in 2013, and neither bout of optimism invalided their bearish medium-term outlooks.
And after the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF (our profitable short position) plunged by 5.35% and 6.98% respectively last week, summertime sadness confronted the precious metals. Likewise, with more melancholy moves likely to materialize over the medium term, gold, silver, and mining stocks should hit lower lows during the autumn months.
Friday, September 10, 2021
Gold Price Back Below $1,800! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold Price Back Below $1,800!
Easy come, easy go. The yellow metal rallied on Friday just to plunge on Tuesday. What’s your next move, Mr. Gold?
Ugh, the recent rally in gold prices was really short-lived. As the chart below shows, the price of gold increased after the publication of disappointing nonfarm payrolls on Friday. However, it declined as soon as on Tuesday, and on Wednesday it slid below $1,800.
Friday, September 10, 2021
Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
As a keen observer of the silver market, something recently caught my eye concerning the relationship between silver and gold (well-recognized) and silver and copper (less so).
Traditionally, silver prices have tracked gold prices fairly closely, which makes sense given that both function as monetary metals, and they often occur together in mineral deposits. The correlation between gold and silver since 1975 has been 0.8876. The 10-year correlation coefficient is 0.7511. However this year, the correlation has dropped significantly to 0.1959.
I suggest the reason is the fact that both copper and silver are being increasingly demanded in green energy applications. The closer correlation is seen below in the similar-shaped line graphs of 6-month spot silver and copper.
This is something we at AOTH will definitely be watching.
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Monday, September 06, 2021
Energy Metals Build Momentum; Silver & Platinum May Follow / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Will this September be one to remember in the markets? It is often characterized by rising volatility heading into the fall. September also often ushers in a period of seasonal strength for precious metals markets.
U.S. stocks opened the month heading back up to record levels. Meanwhile, gold and silver traded with little fanfare. Prices bounced around quietly ahead of Friday’s big jobs report.
Despite lackluster performance in the precious metals sector of late, some other metals are taking off. Energy metals in particular are a hot commodity right now. Uranium – the fuel for nuclear reactors – has suddenly gained strength on supply concerns. And metals used in electric vehicles, including lithium and rare earth elements, are surging along with demand for electric vehicles.
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Monday, September 06, 2021
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US home prices are surging, increasingly raising worries about inflation. Could gold follow houses? If so, why?Home price growth in the US has accelerated even further, reaching a new record. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose from 255.3 in May to 260.9 in June, boosting the annual percentage gain from 16.8% to 18.1%, as the chart below shows. That’s the largest jump since 1988 when the series began.
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Sunday, September 05, 2021
Bond Conundrum - Boom or Bust for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation has risen, but bond yields have declined. Such a divergence is strange — beware gold bulls!Would you like to see something mysterious? If yes, please look at the chart below. It shows the yields on 10-year US Treasuries (red line) and CPI annual inflation rates (blue line) in recent years. As you can see, a huge divergence emerged this year: while inflation surged above 5%, nominal bond yields declined from 1.6% to 1.3%.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Will Crude Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Supply and demand" does not always determine the price trend of crude oil
As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.
On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:
Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages
Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they "edged" higher.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
When Will It Be Time to Sell Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Clients often ask when they should sell precious metals. We usually suggest one basic rule around the timing. After that, the decision to sell will depend upon whether your reasons for holding gold and silver have changed.
The basic rule is to avoid selling based on impulse. Humans are emotional creatures and studies show most of us make poor choices when it comes to timing. If you are making a snap decision to sell (or buy) based upon a surge of either fear or greed, odds are you will regret it.
The trick to avoiding an emotional decision about when to sell is to understand why you bought precious metals in the first place and stick to your guns.
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
Bittersweet Truth for Gold Stocks: What You Need to Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When the Fed entices grown up kids with sweet words, they hit the candy store and stock up on gold, silver, and stocks. A sugar hangover follows.
Beware of the candyman!
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performing his usual dovish dance on Aug. 27, gold, silver, and mining stocks were like kids in a candy store. However, with the short-term sugar highs often leaving investors with nasty stomach aches, the sweet-and-sour nature of the precious metals’ performances may lead to pre-Halloween hangovers.
HUI Index: Harbinger of Things to Come
To explain, while the HUI Index invalidated the breakdown below its previous lows, the bullish reversal may seem quite sanguine. However, an identical development occurred in 2013 right before the index continued its sharp decline. Moreover, I warned previously that the HUI Index could record a corrective upswing of 4% to 8% (that’s what happened after the breakdown in 2013) and that it would not change the medium-term implications. And after the index rallied by more than 6% last week, the bounce is nothing to write home about.
Thursday, September 02, 2021
Facing down our investment fears, Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition. Honored through the ages, the standard of wealth, the original money, the safe haven. The value of gold was axiomatic. This view depends on a concept of gold as unchanging and unchanged—nature’s hard asset.” – Matthew Hart, Vanity Fair magazine
Facing down our investment fears
Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in
“As markets shake off their summer slumbers,” writes London-based analyst Bill Blain, “what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.”
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Tuesday, August 31, 2021
Gold GDX Stocks, A Proxy for the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been suggesting for some time now that the PM complex is trading at a critical inflection point where they can have a big move in either direction. It may sound like a copout but that is what an inflection point is. Many times at a critical inflection point, in the case of the PM stock indexes, support can hold beautifully or there can be a false breakout of the the S&R line which can be called a bear trap if the price action trades back above that important trendline.
Tonight I’m going to use the GDX as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which is showing us a great example of the current critical inflection point. The most basic concept in Chartology is how an important trendline can reverse its role to what had been resistance to support once broken to the upside and vise versa. The psychology behind an important trendline, using the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle on this weekly chart for the GDX below, is that when the top rail of the flat top expanding triangle was broken to the upside everyone that bought below the top rail is above water. As long as there isn’t a big breach of the top rail most will feel comfortable and not sell.
Every trendline you put on a chart is a support and resistance line, above is bullish and below is bearish. This is why we are always looking for a backtest when we see a breakout of a chart pattern. It doesn’t happen all the time but it does happen enough to always be on guard.
Lets focus on the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle that starts at the 2016 high and runs horizontally to the right side of the chart. Not many caught the double top that formed just below the 2016 trendline which led to the March 2020 crash low. As you can see there were 3 important touches from below. After the 2020 crash low was put in you can see the vertical rally that ensued but this time the top rail gave way. After several more weeks of moving higher the GDX completed its first backtest which could have been the backtest which would lead to the next important move higher but that wasn’t the case.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Gold Price GameStop Stock Connection? It's an Emotions Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
There are many factors affecting gold prices on a daily basis, but… how can GameStop stock be one of them?
Given today’s pre-market slide in gold, it seems that the triangle-vertex-based turning point worked once again. Declines are likely next.
In yesterday’s analysis, I explained why the situation remains very similar to what happened in 2013, and that remains up-to-date. On top of that, two interesting things happened yesterday: one quite obvious and one less obvious.
Tuesday, August 24, 2021
Gold Happy 50th Anniversary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_Pento
Friday the 13th of August 1971 was a very important date in U.S. history. It was the date that set the table for the beginning of the end of the USD's world reserve currency status. And, greatly expedited the road to perdition for the dollar's purchasing power.That means this past Friday was the 50-year anniversary of President Nixon's absolute termination of the dollar's ability to be redeemed for gold. Therefore, I thought it would be a good idea to review gold's performance since that time against some popular investments—especially since the MSFM took this same opportunity to impugn this most precious of metals—as they are always prone to do. And, to also once again explain what really drives the gold market.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
USDX Resurgence: Gold and Silver Don’t Let It Catch You Flat-Footed! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With its negative correlation to the metals, the USDX rally weighed heavily on gold, silver and stocks. Stop and think: what would be if it continued?
While the overwhelming majority of investors entered 2021 with a bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar, our optimism has proved quite prescient. The USDX bottomed at the beginning of the year. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week – combined with the EUR/USD, the GDX ETF, the GDXJ ETF, and the price of silver (in terms of the closing prices) hitting new 2021 lows – the ‘pain trade’ has caught many market participants flat-footed. Even silver stocks (the SIL ETF) closed at new yearly lows.
Moreover, after the USD Index surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern and confirmed the breakout above its cup and handle pattern, the combination of new daily and weekly highs is quite a bullish cocktail. Given all that, even if a short-term pullback materializes, the USDX remains poised to challenge ~97.5 - 98 over the medium term — perhaps even over the short term (next several weeks).
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Gold Price and the ‘Taper Tantrum’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Gold prices are slipping as talk of a “taper tantrum” has investors thinking that the US Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program could be scaled back.
Over the last three days spot gold has dropped $18, peak to trough, on news of US jobless claims falling sharply to 348,000, and the US dollar scaling over a nine-month peak. The dollar’s rise makes gold expensive for holders of other currencies and therefore dents demand for the precious metal.
Good job news indicative of a potential taper and interest rate increase was also responsible for a gold take-down on Aug. 9, when the spot price and gold futures both settled around $1,726, the worst since Mid-April.
A few factors have taken the shine off gold, including a strong US economic recovery with lower unemployment and healthy manufacturing data (the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI has risen from 59 in January to 63.4 in July); a climbing US dollar index (from 89 in January to its current 93.56), and most importantly, persistent rumors that the US Federal Reserve will reduce its current $120 billion per month asset purchases designed to flood the financial system with money for lending out, and follow that up with a rise in interest rates.
Because gold does not offer a yield, any suggestion of raising rates makes it less attractive to investors looking for interest on their investments. And because gold is a hedge against inflation, winding down the Fed’s balance sheet (a tally of asset purchases) also dents gold’s appeal because there is less chance of rising inflation caused by a continuation of “quantitative easing”.
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Saturday, August 21, 2021
The Rise And Fall Of Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
The rise and fall of gold stocks is a story of hurt and disappointment. That is because most of the time gold stocks are in decline.
Below are four charts which depict the sad story. Following each chart I will make some brief comments…
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Saturday, August 21, 2021
Gold Stocks Break to New Yearly Lows! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakdown! Gold stocks underperformed the yellow metal so much that they reached the lowest levels seen this year…
The HUI Index (gold stocks) broke to new 2021 lows while the USD Index broke to new 2021 highs. Just as I’ve been warning you.
Mining stocks’ extreme weakness relative to gold continued yesterday, and while it may seem like the weakness has to have a limit, this limit is likely still quite far from the markets right now.
Let’s take a look at the long-term HUI Index chart for details.
Friday, August 20, 2021
Why Silver’s Breakout Into a Major New Upleg Is Likely Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he believes the metal is in the “perfect” buy spot.
Silver is now regarded as the best value hard asset around, and it really doesn’t matter in the long-term whether J. P. Morgan and the other banks try to suppress the price or not. Like gold, it has intrinsic value and, in the situation of high inflation that we are moving into and that has already started, when most asset prices are surging it is illogical to think that silver won’t do likewise.
If they insist on trying to sit on it, all that will happen is that the physical market will break completely from the paper market and they will be increasingly perceived as absurd. We should therefore take advantage of its current relatively very low price to accumulate silver investments across the board.
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Thursday, August 19, 2021
Gold Rallies on Softening Inflation. What’s Going On? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation softened slightly in July and gold prices rose, but the bullish joy may be premature. How should we respond?Inflation eased a bit in July, but it remained disturbingly high. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.5% in July after rising 0.9% in June. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also softened, as it rose 0.3% in July after increasing 0.9% in June. The deceleration was mainly caused by a much smaller advance in the index for used cars, which increased only 0.2% (it was 10.5% in June).
However, on an annual basis, inflation practically stayed unchanged since June, as the chart below shows. The overall index surged 5.4% for the second month in a row (on a seasonally unadjusted basis), while the core CPI soared 4.3%, following a 4.5% jump in the previous month.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2021
When Gold Price Rises, Will Bitcoin Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What do the portents say? Well, we’ve been looking for connections between gold and bitcoin, and we see a chance to fatten the coffers. Read on.
But first, let’s talk about gold and the miners. Yesterday’s session provided us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish case in the precious metals sector for the short term.
The reason is that what happened was bearish in two ways:
- Nothing happened in gold
- Daily declines in mining stocks